Welcome to another Saturday of FCS football. This time, we're in for some Week 9 college football action.
Betting FCS is a whole new ballgame, with massive line movement, late odds releases, and if we're lucky, severe mismatches. Click here for my top FCS betting tips.
I'm looking at three games featuring FCS teams today: Mercer vs. Western Carolina, Norfolk State vs. Howard and Eastern Illinois vs. UT Martin.
Let's dive into my FCS picks for Saturday, Oct. 26.
Western Carolina vs. Mercer
Mercer comes in off of a disappointing road loss last week against Samford in a game where it gave up more points than it had all season against all other teams combined.
The uncharacteristic performance doesn't completely take away from the fact that Mercer is one of the strongest FCS defensive teams looking to rebound from an uncharacteristic performance last week.
Mercer is still holding foes to 251 total yards and 14.5 points per game on the season, and the rushing defense has been otherworldly. Averaging just 1.6 yards per carry surrendered and 43 rushing yards allowed per game, the front seven for the Bears has been lights out — something I feel we'll see again this week against Western Carolina.
The Bears offense has averaged 33 points per game this season using a predominantly rush-heavy attack this year. Mercer should have success against the Catamounts on the ground, but WCU has been solid in limiting explosive rushes against them.
Western Carolina was projected to have a high-flying offense this season behind quarterback Cole Gonzales and a trio of solid wide receivers, but the Catamounts have struggled a bit this year.
Turnovers, playing behind the chains and inconsistency on third down have limited production from WCU offensively. Going up against this solid Mercer defense on the road will be a tough task for WCU.
I expect it to move the ball a little bit here, especially through the air. However, in situations where they need to gain yards on the ground on third-and-short, I would expect situational struggles.
I like the under in this matchup and bet it at 55.5.
Both WCU and Mercer have locked in on defense in the red zone. WCU is allowing just 51% of red-zone drives to end with touchdowns and has really done well to force red-zone turnovers. In fact, opponents have scored on just 65% of red-zone trips.
Defensively, there's no better team in the red zone in FCS football than Mercer. It has allowed just 7-of-17 red-zone trips to end in touchdowns and has forced numerous fourth-down stops inside the 20-yard line themselves.
This game is extremely important in SoCon play, and I would expect conservative play from both teams in the first half while feeling each other out.
Mercer has been locked in on defense all season with the exception of last week, and with the stakes high at home in this one, it really needs its defense to have a solid performance here.
I expect Mercer to control the clock and keep its offense on the field by running the football 66% of the time as it has all season to salt this game away in the fourth quarter. Play the under in what should be a great Southern Conference battle.
Pick: Under 55.5
Howard vs. Norfolk State
Norfolk State has quietly become one of my favorite “under” teams this year, as they're 6-1 to the under with most games ending comfortably under the posted total.
The Spartans are off of a bye week after a competitive loss last time out against Towson. Norfolk State has all of the tendencies desired in an under team, as it plays at a slow pace on offense, runs the football and plays solid defense while limiting explosives.
Norfolk is running the ball on 65% of offensive snaps this season with running backs Kevon King and X’Zavion Evans carrying the load. These two have combined for 922 rushing yards and a 5.6 yards-per-carry average on the season.
Norfolk State really struggles in the passing game, as quarterbacks Jalen Daniels and Vinson Berry have combined to average just 136 passing yards per game on the season.
The Spartans also struggle with negative plays and have surrendered 14 sacks this year. For what it's worth, Norfolk State is only converting third downs at 31% this year and has consistently struggled to extend drives and move the football.
Howard is of a similar makeup, as it likes to run the football 60% of the time. The Bison are averaging 163 yards per game with a 4.1 YPC average and have also seen struggles in the passing game.
Quarterbacks Jaylon Tolbert and Ja’Shawn Scroggins have combined to throw for just 1,068 yards and five touchdowns on the season.
While Howard hasn't surrendered the negative plays and sacks, it also struggles on third down, converting just 36.5% while also going just 8-of-22 on fourth down.
Well, Howard has a really bad field-goal operation that has gone just 1-of-5 this season, as the team has often opted to forego the field goal in exchange for a fourth-down opportunity.
The Spartans have been terrible in the red zone this year, scoring just six touchdowns on the season on 14 total attempts. Howard has limited foes to just a 68% red-zone touchdown rate on 23 defensive trips while forcing several fourth-down stops inside the 20-yard line.
Neither of these two teams have a tremendous amount of success establishing drives and finishing them with touchdowns. I fully expect a run-heavy approach by both teams and the clock to move quickly in this one.
It's hard to imagine either team having much success through the air here, and the explosive plays should be limited in this one. While this should be a close, competitive football game, points will come at a premium here. Take the under.
Pick: Under 49.5
Eastern Illinois vs. UT Martin
I have really wanted to like Eastern Illinois this year, but this team is just so terrible on offense that it's hard to get behind it.
The Panthers have averaged just 318 total yards and 15.5 points per game on the season, and quarterback Pierce Holley has not made improvements to carry the team. Holley is completing just 58% of his throws this season with a 7:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio with a rushing game that has been nonexistent.
The offensive line has been pushed around all season while surrendering 16 sacks and averaging just 2.7 yards per carry on the ground. Third-down offense has been awful, as the Panthers are converting just 33% of their third-down attempts.
Defensively, the Panthers have allowed 433 yards and 33 points per game while consistently getting outgained and struggling to get stops. The pass defense has allowed 8.6 yards per attempt and has surrendered 23 touchdown passes this year.
The Panthers have also allowed 48% of third-down attempts to be converted and have been really bad in the red zone, giving up touchdowns on 75% of red-zone trips.
UT Martin comes in off a bye week and back-to-back blowout Big South/OVC victories with an FBS win over Kennesaw State prior to that.
The Skyhawks have received excellent quarterback play from Kinkead Dent, and the run game has been consistent with Patrick Smith leading the way. Smith has 749 yards and 10 touchdowns on the season while averaging 6.1 yards per carry.
The Skyhawk defense has been really solid this year, especially against inferior opponents. UT-Martin is allowing just 94 rushing yards per game this season, and the front seven defensively has limited explosive plays.
While the Defensive Havoc numbers aren't eye-popping, UT-Martin does have 11 sacks and 41 tackles for loss this season.
UT-Martin is competing for a conference championship and potential playoff spot and has dispatched the weaker teams in the league with ease.
EIU has been blown out multiple times this year, and in a lost season at 1-6, I'm struggling to find motivation for this team this week.
The Panthers have been especially bad on the road offensively, and I see another blowout road loss here against the Skyhawks.
Pick: UT Martin -15.5
