An in-state matchup in the Big 12 kicks off Week 6 when TCU (3-2, 1-1 Big 12) and Houston (1-4, 0-2 Big 12) battle under the lights on Friday night.
The Horned Frogs got their season back on track with a 38-27 win at Kansas last week.
Meanwhile, the Cougars are looking for their first conference victory under their new coach after losses to Cincinnati and Iowa State.
TCU enters this game as a -16 favorite with an over/under of 51.
Who doesn’t love to start the week with some Texas football? Let’s dive into this contest and make some Houston vs. TCU predictions and college football picks for Friday, Oct. 4.
Houston Cougars vs TCU Horned Frogs Prediction
My TCU vs. Houston best bet is for Houston to cover the spread. I'm backing Houston at +16.5 and would play that to +14.5.
- Houston vs. TCU Pick: Houston +16.5
Houston vs TCU Odds, Spread, Line
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -110 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | +540 |
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -110 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | -800 |
- Houston vs TCU Point Spread: Houston +16.5 · TCU -16.5
- Houston vs TCU Over/Under: 50.5 Points
- Houston vs TCU Moneyline: Houston ML +540 · TCU ML -800
Houston Football vs TCU Football Preview
Houston Cougars Betting Preview: Defense Making Strides
After five years under coach Dana Holgorsen, Houston decided to go into a new direction by bringing in veteran coach Willie Fritz, whose 31-year coaching career has included successful stops at Tulane, Georgia Southern and Sam Houston State.
Unfortunately, this looks like it will be a full rebuild in his debut campaign. It also doesn’t help that the program made the jump up to the Big 12 this year.
Even with the slow start, Fritz has led significant improvements on the defensive side of the ball. Houston’s defense has allowed just 1,471 yards, the program’s third-fewest over the first five games of a season since 2000.
On the other side of the ball, Fritz is starting to see his run scheme come to fruition. The Cougars have run for 554 yards over their past three games, a sharp contrast to the first two games, during which Houston rushed for a combined 96 yards.
It was always going to be a difficult campaign, but I expect Fritz to turn this around if he's given the time.
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview: Hoover Leading the Way
Just two seasons ago, coach Sonny Dykes led the program to the national championship game. However, the 2022-23 TCU team feels like a distant memory.
The Horned Frogs failed to make a bowl last year, losing four of their final five games down the stretch. That led to a change on the defensive side of the ball, where Dykes brought in former Boise State coach Andy Avalos as defensive coordinator.
Unfortunately, it hasn’t been a smooth transition for Avalos. TCU gave up over 500 total yards in a loss to UCF before allowing 66 points to SMU in the Battle for the Iron Skillet.
On the positive side, the offense has been explosive behind the duo of quarterback Josh Hoover and receiver Jack Bech. Hoover ranks third in the FBS in passing yards (1,774) and is tied for fourth in touchdown passes (14).
Bech has been the main benefactor of the team’s great passing. Coming into this game, he is the only player in the FBS to rank in the top three nationally in both receiving yards and touchdown catches, and he’ll need another big game here.
TCU vs Houston Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how TCU and Houston match up statistically:
Houston Offense vs. TCU Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 124 | 106 | |
| Line Yards | 118 | 116 |  |
| Pass Success | 111 | 75 | |
| Havoc | 133 | 109 | |
| Finishing Drives | 133 | 83 | |
| Quality Drives | 112 | 103 | |
TCU Offense vs. Houston Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 71 | 19 | |
| Line Yards | 92 | 54 | |
| Pass Success | 13 | 48 | |
| Havoc | 34 | 79 | |
| Finishing Drives | 82 | 39 | |
| Quality Drives | 78 | 53 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 60 | 7 |
| PFF Coverage | 80 | 43 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 134 | 122 |
| Middle 8 | 63 | 45 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.3 (125) | 24.4 (17) |
| Rush Rate | 57% (56) | 43% (121) |
How to Bet My Houston vs TCU Pick
The among of large spreads stand out when looking over the Week 6 slate. That means I'm looking to back some big underdogs, and this is one of those situations.
So, my best bet is to back Houston at +16.5, which I would play down to +14.5. Keep waiting to see if a +17 pops up later in the week to grab a key number.
Yes, I agree that on paper this sounds like a painful endeavor. However, there is an argument to be made that the Cougars’ defense is the best unit on the field.
This is a defense that ranks in the top 50 in both pass success and finishing drives. Meanwhile, TCU is outside the top 80 in finishing drives, which could be huge when trying to cover this big spread.
On offense, Houston’s key to success will be to run the football, chew clock and keep the Horned Frogs’ high-powered attack of the field. We have seen other teams do this against TCU.
UCF rushed for 289 yards in Week 3, which was followed a week later by SMU rolling up 238 yards on the ground against the Frogs.
I feel this is too many points for TCU, and I’m hoping the visitors can ugly this game up and cash a winning ticket.
Pick: Houston +16.5 (Play to +14.5)
How to Watch Houston vs TCU
| Location: | Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX |
| Date: | Friday, Oct. 4 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
College Football Betting Trends for Houston vs TCU
- Houston is 1-4 in its last five games and 2-3 against the spread.
- The under has cashed in all of Houston's games.
- TCU is 3-2 straight up and 1-4 against the spread in its last five games.
- The over has hit in four of TCU's last five games.
TCU vs Houston Weather
