Kent State vs Akron Odds
| Kent State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Akron Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
Ah, yes. Weekday MACtion is finally here, and I have the absolute pleasure of breaking down this doozy of a matchup.
It's the moment we've all been waiting for. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the 2023 Toilet Bowl presented by Kent State and Akron.
No offense (pun intended) to these two teams, but I couldn't have hand-picked a more disgusting matchup out of all of the FBS teams. This is what true college football fans live for, as we love every team no matter how awful they are.
Let's break down both of these teams and see if we can dig through the dumpster and uncover some betting value on Wednesday night.
Kent State Golden Flashes
The days of watching quarterback Dustin Crum light up the scoreboard are certainly over for the Golden Flashes, as this offense is one of the worst in the entire country.
The defense is slightly better, but that's not saying much.
Kent State lost to Buffalo last week, 24-6, as the team managed to put up 164 yards of total offense. This offense is better off taking three straight knees every possession in hopes that its defense can manufacture points on the scoreboard.
This offensive unit ranks bottom-10 in almost every single metric, notably, Havoc Allowed and Finishing Drives. Simply put, the Flashes have yet to show any sign of life of establishing any sort of offensive rhythm.
I realize the Zips aren't the most ferocious defense, but I have a hard time believing quarterbacks Tommy Ulatowski and Michael Alaimo are going to be able to shred them. The Flashes come in at 133rd in Rushing Success Rate, so I don't see any path to putting serious points on the scoreboard.
Defensively, the Flashes surprisingly can be stingy against the run.
This defensive trench has had some success at times this season, ranking 75th in Defensive Line Yards. Although the Zips rarely run the ball, this could take away any sort of ground threat throughout the entire game.
I do have a slight concern about this Flashes secondary. They're a bottom-five unit in Defensive Passing Success Rate, which isn't great news against a Zips team that likes to sling it.
However, Akron is one-dimensional on offense and ranks 123rd in Passing Success Rate, so the Zips may not even be able to take advantage of this awful Flashes secondary.
I'd imagine this is going to be a grinder of a game, especially since the Flashes lean heavily on their ground attack.
Akron Zips
I'd love to say that the Zips are better on both sides of the ball than Kent State, but unfortunately, I can't. Head coach Joe Moorhead took over this program and improved it initially, but it appears the Zips have returned to rock bottom.
The only bright spot for this Akron team is that its latest 41-14 loss to Bowling Green was a box score fraud. It didn't deserve to win the game by any means, but it was outgained by only 18 total yards.
Offensively, this is yet another bottom-10 unit in the majority of offensive categories, including 127th in Line Yards and 106th in Havoc Allowed.
Quarterback Jeff Undercuffler has had moments of throwing the ball efficiently, but the issue is he doesn't have much help up front. I'd expect a lot of long third-down situations for the Zips, which may force Undercuffler to turn the ball over a few times.
It's painful digging through all of these metrics for Akron, but defensively, I like a few things this unit has done. Akron ranks 33rd in Defensive Passing Success Rate, which will eliminate any semblance of a passing attack from this awful Kent State aerial attack.
Notably, this unit is also top-70 in Rushing Success Rate and Line Yards. If the Zips protect the football, I have a hard time envisioning this defense allowing multiple scoring drives.
It's not surprising to see the Zips as a short 3.5-point favorite at home, but considering how awful their offense is, I can't stomach laying points with either of these teams.
Kent State vs Akron
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kent State and Akron match up statistically:
Kent State Offense vs. Akron Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 133 | 63 | |
| Line Yards | 113 | 67 | |
| Pass Success | 122 | 33 | |
| Havoc | 127 | 107 | |
| Finishing Drives | 127 | 66 | |
| Quality Drives | 127 | 77 | |
Akron Offense vs. Kent State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 95 | 71 | |
| Line Yards | 127 | 75 | |
| Pass Success | 123 | 130 | |
| Havoc | 106 | 119 | |
| Finishing Drives | 133 | 128 | |
| Quality Drives | 132 | 110 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 118 | 65 |
| PFF Coverage | 114 | 70 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 73 | 130 |
| Middle 8 | 129 | 104 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.7 (76) | 28.1 (87) |
| Rush Rate | 62.0% (27) | 45.2% (125) |
Kent State vs Akron
Betting Pick & Prediction
This total has trickled down ever since open, but I still love the under in this game. It's a contrarian pick, but I wouldn't dare take an over in this game between two teams that rank outside the top 130 in Action Network's Betting Power Ratings.
I wanted to sell myself on taking Kent State in this spot, but I see way too many advantages for the Zips on the defensive side of the ball. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Flashes get blanked on the scoreboard in this spot.
Both teams are pretty methodical on offense, and the Flashes rely heavily on their rushing attack.
The key for both sides will be to avoid multiple turnovers, as they could lead to terrific field position for these pathetic offenses.
It's MACtion, so anything is certainly possible in this game. But there are too many paths for an ugly, low-scoring affair between these two dumpster fires.
