Same Game Parlay for Liberty vs. New Mexico State
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -105 | 58 -110o / -110u | -420 |
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -115 | 58 -110o / -110u | +320 |
Conference Championship Week kicks off with the two top teams from Conference USA. The New Mexico State Aggies are set to take on the undefeated Liberty Flames.
This will be the second meeting between the two programs, but this time, the stakes are much higher.
So, with the anticipation mounting for this matchup, let’s see how we can maximize our profits by building a same-game parlay for the Conference USA Championship game.
Liberty -6.5 (-210)
We're going to lay the foundation of our parlay by buying the Flames back down below the key number of seven. Liberty opened this matchup as 10.5-point favorites and has since been bet up to -11.5.
The line makes sense, as Liberty secured a 16-point win in which they dominated the game offensively in their first meeting this season. The Flames posted 526 yards of offense and showed their prowess in the passing game and on the ground.
Liberty has the opportunity to control this matchup once again, as it holds a big edge on the ground. The Flames rank second in the nation in yards per rush, and on top of that, they’ve run the ball at the fourth-highest rate.
The Aggies are quite used to seeing teams run against them, but they have yet to prove they can stop the volume. New Mexico State sits just 61st in yards per rush allowed, with the opposition boasting an average of 4.1 yards per rush.
On the other side of the ball, Liberty is much more well-equipped to stop the Aggies offense. In the first meeting, the Aggies were efficient on the ground but were forced the throw more when their defense couldn't slow down the Flames.
With a similar game script expected, getting the Flames under a touchdown is a steal.
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Kaidon Salter Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
In the first leg, I talked about the Flames' rushing tendencies and how they'll be able to exploit the Aggies on the ground. Well, a guy who will be a big part of that is quarterback Kaidon Salter.
Salter is second on the team in rushing and has proven to be a big part of the ground attack. He’s averaging 6.4 yards per carry on the season.
Now, the first meeting was a rare occasion, as Salter went under his rushing yards total.
He was just five yards short, but the odds are heavily in favor of a bounce-back performance here. Salter has gone over this total in eight of his 12 games this season, giving us implied odds of -203 that he’ll go over here.
In a great matchup, Salter has the volume to surpass this easily, as he’s averaged 11 carries per game this season. At -115, this is a strong addition to our parlay.
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Kordell David Under 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Aggies may have Diego Pavia under center, but it’s clear they’d rather use his legs. In fact, New Mexico State ranks 103rd in pass play rate.
Even in a trailing game script, the Aggies are not projected to have much success through the air, as Liberty ranks 25th in yards per pass and 20th in opponent completion percentage.
The low volume and limited success will severely limit Kordell David’s opportunity to make an impact in this matchup. Plus, David is already shown to be a low-volume option, as he has just 17 catches in 10 games this season.
He has gone under this total in 90% of the games he’s played this season. This gives us implied odds of -900 that he will do so again.
Add in the fact that the Aggies are very unlikely to take the top off the defense, and we have ourselves a smash play to round out our parlay.
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Liberty vs. New Mexico State Same Game Parlay
- Liberty -6.5 (-210)
- Kaidon Salter Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
- Kordell David Under 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Parlay Odds: +375
