Miami (FL) vs Florida State Odds
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 51 -110o / -110u | +475 |
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 51 -110o / -110u | -650 |
Miami true freshman quarterback Emory Williams will start in place of starter Tyler Van Dyke, per Action Network's Brett McMurphy.
Another chapter in one of the great rivalries in college football is set for Saturday afternoon when Miami heads north to Tallahassee to take on Florida State.
Miami leads the all time series by a narrow margin of 35-32, but Florida State has won the last two.
The Hurricanes will be aiming to play spoiler this year, as the Seminoles undefeated season is still intact, with all their goals in front of them.
With the spread currently sitting at FSU -14.5 and the total hovering right around 51, let's find a Miami vs. Florida State pick for Saturday's ACC clash below.
Miami Hurricanes
Hurricane fans can't help but scratch their head when they look at the 6-3 record and think about where this team could be. The melt down against Georgia Tech rightfully got a ton of publicity, where head coach Mario Cristobal inexplicably decided to run the ball resulting in a fumble, when the Canes could have knelt it out and ran the clock down to triple zeroes.
In addition to that game, there have been a few other instances this season (Virginia, last week at NC State) where it just hasn't felt like Miami has been fully prepared to play.
The numbers are favorable across the board both on the offensive and defensive side, which shows the talent this team has when it can put it together.
Miami is in the top 15 nationally in Line Yards on both sides of the ball, which will be pivotal in the battle up front against a physical Florida State team.
The Seminoles have been able to overpower some other ACC opponents, but in this game, Miami has the bodies to battle in the trenches.
Tyler Van Dyke needs to do a much better job taking care of the football if Miami wants a chance to pull off the upset. The veteran threw three interceptions last Saturday in Raleigh, which proved to be a key reason why the Wolfpack won that game.
Florida State Seminoles
College football is more exciting when Florida State is in the national picture. After a shaky start to his tenure, Mike Norvell has this program clicking on all cylinders.
The victory in Week 1 over LSU set the tone for this season, and now the Seminole fan base is dreaming about an ACC title and a College Football Playoff appearance.
Saturday's tilt against the Hurricanes is arguably the most difficult remaining test for FSU in its quest for a 13-0 regular season.
If there's one area where Florida State has struggled in 2023, it has been rushing the football. Aside from when quarterback Jordan Travis has used his legs to improvise, the Noles have struggled to just line up and move it on the ground.
With Miami being pretty stout in stopping the run, there's a scenario where the FSU offense could become one-dimensional in this matchup.
On the other side of the ball, the Seminole defense has been rock solid all season and has created plenty of Havoc.
Behind its home crowd, look for FSU to bring plenty of blitzes to try to pressure Van Dyke and create some negative plays and turnovers.
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Miami vs Florida State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami and Florida State match up statistically:
Miami Offense vs. Florida State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 46 | 58 | |
| Line Yards | 9 | 28 | |
| Pass Success | 34 | 6 | |
| Havoc | 19 | 26 | |
| Finishing Drives | 58 | 16 | |
| Quality Drives | 32 | 12 | |
Florida State Offense vs. Miami Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 89 | 20 | |
| Line Yards | 109 | 11 | |
| Pass Success | 22 | 34 | |
| Havoc | 7 | 20 | |
| Finishing Drives | 20 | 98 | |
| Quality Drives | 31 | 49 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 5 | 38 |
| PFF Coverage | 55 | 18 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 1 | 33 |
| Middle 8 | 30 | 3 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.5 (94) | 27.5 (77) |
| Rush Rate | 50.7% (83) | 49.7% (84) |
Miami vs Florida State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Miami has played to the level of its competition throughout the season.
The Hurricanes showed up against Texas A&M and Clemson, and notched upset victories over both. They sleep-walked against Georgia Tech and NC State, and lost both of those contests outright.
I don't see that trend changing in this one. The Canes have the talent to go toe to toe with the Seminoles, and Cristobal should be able to motivate his team to be fully ready to go against a big rival. This is basically Miami's Super Bowl after getting knocked out of ACC Championship game contention last week.
Travis and the Noles will make their fair share of big plays, but I see Miami keeping it competitive throughout and would not be shocked one bit if this is a one-possession game late in the fourth quarter.
Give me the Hurricanes with the points, as it's all about the U on Saturday afternoon in Tallahassee.
Pick: Miami +14.5 (-110)
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