Ohio State vs Michigan State Odds
| Ohio State Buckeyes Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-32.5 -110 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | -10000 |
| Michigan State Spartans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+32.5 -110 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | +2500 |
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The Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan State Spartans have played some classic games.
This will not be one of them.
Even though Ohio State may be a little underwhelming compared to past Buckeye teams, it would take a lot for Michigan State to hang around in this game. The Spartans have dealt with a lot following the departure of Mel Tucker, and the Buckeyes aren't a good ailment for those troubles.
Can MSU keep it close? Let's dive into the analysis.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Oh, to have read the Ohio State message boards during halftime of the Rutgers game.
Despite the angst in Buckeye nation, Ohio State is 9-0 and has as good a chance of winning a national title as anyone. Even in ugly wins, like last weekend when it trailed Rutgers 9-7 at the half, OSU still generally finds a way to win by double digits.
But that doesn't mean it's been pretty.
The offense wasn't good in the Buckeyes' 23-3 road win over Indiana in Week 1, and the same issues continued into mid-November. Ohio State is averaging 30 points per game in conference play, and while that would be awesome for most teams, Buckeye fans have seen far better offense in the recent past.
Ohio State just isn't as dynamic at quarterback as it has been.
Kyle McCord has been good-not-great with 2,352 yards, 17 touchdowns and four interceptions, and the offense just has not been the Death Star that it was in years past. Just look at the game against Rutgers when Ohio State had to punt four times.
I get that Rutgers is better than it typically is, but the Buckeyes should be sustaining drives much better.
Marvin Harrison Jr. certainly covers up a lot of warts, though. Harrison leads OSU with 914 yards and 10 touchdowns, and the eye test is even more impressive than the statistics would indicate.
Ohio State's defense has led the way this year. It's giving up 10.7 points per game (second to only Michigan) and ranks first in Pass Success Rate Allowed and 12th in Rush Success Rate Allowed.
The defense is loaded with future NFL players, and JT Tuimoloau stands out above the rest with four sacks.
Michigan State Spartans
It's been … a year for Michigan State.
First, Payton Thorne and Keon Coleman transferred out of the program in the spring, then Tucker was fired for sexual misconduct in September, and now the Spartans are 3-6 with Ohio State and Penn State still on the schedule.
Add in an ill-advised trivia question on the video board at Spartan Stadium, and it's clear that there have been better days in East Lansing.
Through all the tumult, the MSU football team has struggled this season. It's tied for last in the Big Ten with a 1-5 conference record and was mired in a six-game losing skid until last Saturday when it edged Nebraska, 20-17.
The Tucker situation and a fairly average roster are problems in their own right, but it doesn't help when there is no clear answer at quarterback. It looks like Katin Houser will be the starter right now, but true freshman Sam Leavitt has rotated in recently, all after Noah Kim began the season as the starter.
Houser hasn't been great, completing 58.7% of his passes for 674 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. Maybe interim coach Harlon Barnett will turn to Leavitt, but the true freshman is undecided on burning his redshirt this season.
Kim was benched during the bye week and has since been listed on the MSU injury report.
Running back Nathan Carter has been the most consistent offensive player for the Spartans, leading the team with 659 rushing yards and four touchdowns.
It hasn't been a pretty picture on defense. MSU is allowing 29.5 points per game in conference play, which is subpar, considering it has played Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska.
The Spartans are decent at pressuring the quarterback with 25 sacks as a team, and Jaden Mangham is tied for eighth in the country with four picks.
Beyond that, there's nothing to write home about.
Ohio State vs Michigan State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Michigan State and Ohio State match up statistically:
Michigan State Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 118 | 12 | |
| Line Yards | 120 | 47 | |
| Pass Success | 91 | 1 | |
| Havoc | 94 | 51 | |
| Finishing Drives | 119 | 3 | |
| Quality Drives | 112 | 3 | |
Ohio State Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 52 | 49 |  |
| Line Yards | 62 | 37 | |
| Pass Success | 19 | 71 | |
| Havoc | 8 | 49 | |
| Finishing Drives | 41 | 62 | |
| Quality Drives | 15 | 65 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 69 | 22 |
| PFF Coverage | 121 | 1 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 26 | 23 |
| Middle 8 | 72 | 30 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.4 (59) | 27.5 (76) |
| Rush Rate | 48.8% (99) | 52.0% (74) |
Ohio State vs Michigan State
Predictions, Picks
Most sportsbooks are favoring Ohio State by 31.5 points in this game.
I get it. Michigan State is bad.
However, this Buckeyes team has shown no indication that it can pound teams into oblivion, so I'm leaning toward the Spartans to cover.
This isn't really about Michigan State. I simply can't trust Ohio State to win by 32 points when it only has one conference win by that margin — a 41-7 victory over Purdue. The Buckeyes didn't even beat Youngstown State by that margin.
So, go with the Spartans.
