In the first College Football Playoff semifinal, the TCU Horned Frogs take on the Michigan Wolverines in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl. TCU is sixth in the FBS in scoring offense at 40.3 points per game and is led by Heisman finalist Max Duggan.
Michigan sits just behind TCU, ranking seventh in scoring offense at 40.1 points per game. The Wolverines will be without running back Blake Corum but still have many capable playmakers.
With these two high-powered offenses matching up, there could be a lot of points on the board in Glendale. Here's my same-game parlay:
Parlay Odds: +1290 via FanDuel
- JJ McCarthy Over 210.5 Passing Yards (-114)
- Ronnie Bell Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Quentin Johnston Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Taye Barber Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Kendre Miller Anytime Touchdown (-165)
JJ McCarthy Over 210.5 Passing Yards
Michigan ranks fifth in the FBS with 243 rushing yards per game. Even without Corum, Michigan has accounted for 471 rushing yards in its past two games.
Running back Donovan Edwards has carried the bulk of the load with 401 rushing yards in the past two games.
In response in the leadup to this game, TCU head coach Sonny Dykes has said he wants to make Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy beat it. It’s a bold strategy considering McCarthy is completing 65% of his passes and has 20 touchdown passes and just three interceptions.
However, if TCU is going to sell out to stop Michigan’s running game, McCarthy is more than capable of winning the game with his arm.
McCarthy has six games this season with 200 passing yards and five with 211 yards. His season-high was 304 passing yards against Indiana and most notably, he threw for 263 yards against Ohio State.
TCU ranked 85th in the FBS with 236.1 passing yards allowed per game, though that is partly due to playing in the pass-happy Big 12. However, I like McCarthy’s chances in this matchup.
Ronnie Bell Over 54.5 Receiving Yards
Ronnie Bell is not only McCarthy’s top target, but he's also led Michigan in receiving in each of the past three seasons he's finished healthy.
This season, Bell has 56 receptions for 754 yards and three touchdowns. Bell has six games with 55 yards this season, including 67 in the Big Ten Championship against Purdue. He also had another game with 53.
Bell has eight games with four receptions this season and he averages 13.5 yards per reception. Essentially, if Bell has an average game, he will have four catches for 54 yards. That would leave us hooked here. However, four catches for 55 yards would get the job done.
Quentin Johnston Over 70.5 Receiving Yards
After two solid seasons as an underclassman, Quentin Johnston emerged as one of the top receivers in college football.
With 53 receptions for 903 yards and five touchdowns this season, the junior has already nearly matched his production from his first two seasons in Fort Worth. At 6-foot-4 and with 4.4 speed, he is a difficult matchup on the perimeter.
Johnston has really come on in TCU’s past seven games. In that span, he has five games with 71 receiving yards and another with 66 yards. He averages 17 yards per catch, so four catches for 72 yards is what we are looking for here. Johnston has two games this season with nearly that identical line — four catches for 74 yards and four catches for 76 yards.
Against Michigan, I would assume Johnston gets a heavy dose of Michigan cornerback Will Johnson. The former five-star recruit is Michigan’s best cover corner and has the length to match Johnston at 6-foot-3.
However, as a true freshman, Johnson has not fully earned traveling responsibilities just yet. Michigan rotates Johnson with upperclassmen D.J. Turner and Gemon Green.
Michigan gave up seven catches for 120 yards and a touchdown to Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. He also caught a 42-yard touchdown when matched up with Green. In the Big Ten Championship, Michigan gave up 13 catches for 162 yards to Purdue’s Charlie Jones. Much of that came before Michigan switched Johnson onto Jones.
Michigan ranks 23rd in passing yards allowed at 191.8 per game, but it has been susceptible to explosive plays this season. The Wolverines have given up at least one 30-yard pass in six of their past seven games. The deep ball is Johnston’s specialty, and he may only need a couple to eclipse 71 yards.
Taye Barber Over 32.5 Receiving Yards
Duggan is one of the nation’s most aggressive vertical passers, and he averages nine yards per attempt. Another beneficiary of a deep ball from Duggan could be receiver Taye Barber.
Like Johnston, Barber also averages 17 (17.4 to be exact) yards per reception. Barber has 34 catches for 593 yards and four touchdowns, all career highs for the fifth-year senior.
Barber is averaging 45.6 yards per game this season and has 36 yards in five games this season, including in three of the past five games.
However, if he does go over this line, he will likely shatter it.
In each game he finished with 36 yards, he had at least 60 yards. He caught a 30-yard pass in each of those games. We may know very early on if Barber is going over this line, particularly if he catches a deep ball in the first quarter.
Kendre Miller Anytime Touchdown (-165)
This game features two of the nation’s top running backs in Edwards and TCU’s Kendre Miller.
FanDuel has Edwards at -850 to score one touchdown, which does very little to boost the odds of this parlay. So, I will pivot to Miller, whose odds are much more reasonable at -165. Given his success this season, you would think Miller is the one listed at -850.
Miller has scored 17 rushing touchdowns this season and is tied for seventh in the NCAA. He has scored at least one touchdown in every game. He also has four games with two touchdowns. Miller is a home-run hitter and has six touchdowns of at least 25 yards this season. However, he can also do the dirty work in the red zone and punch it in near the goal line.
Michigan doesn't allow many rushing touchdowns — just seven on the year. However, it has allowed three in the past three games, including two to Illinois’ Chase Brown. I like Miller’s chances to run one in on Saturday.
