Missouri vs Ohio State Odds
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
The Cotton Bowl remains one of the most prestigious bowls in the history of college football, originating in 1937 from Cotton Bowl Stadium until 2009.
Dallas saw the rise of the bowl game peak with its inclusion as a New Year's Six bowl in the current College Football Playoff system. Two teams part of that history will return for a showdown, as Missouri returns for the first time since 2014 and Ohio State for the first time since 2017.
These two programs are intersecting in different directions heading into the 12-team playoff era.
Ohio State failed to win the Big Ten for a third consecutive season, losing to Michigan in the Big Ten finale. The Buckeyes haven't won the Big Ten since the pandemic season of 2020.
NFL Draft opt-outs, transfer portal entries and injuries have depleted a roster that previously defeated bowl teams such as Penn State, Wisconsin, Maryland, Notre Dame and Western Kentucky.
Missouri is on a different tangent, redefining the ceiling of the program in the fourth season of head coach Eli Drinkwitz. The meteoric rise from Springdale High School to Arkansas State culminated with an opportunity to coach the Tigers. Drinkwitz previously failed to finish with a winning record before 2023.
With every victory in recruiting and the transfer portal, Missouri could be a legitimate contender during the 2024 season.
First up, a date with a college football blue blood in Ohio State.
Let's dive into the Missouri vs. Ohio State odds and make a prediction and pick for Friday's Cotton Bowl below.
Missouri Tigers
The hire of Kirby Moore as offensive coordinator from Fresno State has paid dividends for the Tigers. A once stagnant offense searching for an increase in Success Rate ended the season with top-25 marks in Passing Success Rate, Quality Drives and scoring position offense. In fact, Missouri comes in as the top overall offense in the country in terms of red-zone scoring.
Quarterback Brady Cook leads a lethal attack that includes running back Cody Schrader and slot receiver Luther Burden III.
Missouri RB Cody Schrader –
– Hits the gaps strong when he runs
– Natural pass catching ability that’s rare for the position
– Sees the field exceptionally well and is lethal in space
– Doesn’t possess great speed
– Needs to create better separation
pic.twitter.com/XJKTVAt9ig— Cønnør (@BernienChompz) December 20, 2023
Missouri used outside zone read run concepts as the primary driver of the rushing attack, finishing 52nd in Success Rate on the ground.
Cook stepped up in passing downs, ranking 14th in Success Rate and 40th in pass explosives thanks to Burden and outside weapons Theo Wease and Mookie Cooper.
The Tigers were elite in drives crossing the 40-yard line, averaging 4.6 points on 75 drives with a scoring opportunity.
Defensive coordinator Blake Baker runs a 3-3-5 personnel with a high 40% blitz percentage. The Tigers have been one of the highest-ranking Havoc teams in the nation, ranking 13th nationally in forced fumbles.
The efficiency evaporated when opponents looked to create a big play, as Missouri had consistent issues defending ground explosives in standard downs. The Tigers were 120th in defensive standard downs expected points while also falling outside the top 100 in Defensive Finishing Drives.
For Missouri to win the Cotton Bowl, the biggest pieces of the offense must produce.
Ohio State Buckeyes
After several seasons with some of the most skilled quarterbacks in the nation from Justin Fields to CJ Stroud, Ohio State took a step back in quarterback efficiency in 2023. Kyle McCord won the job during fall camp, beating Devin Brown in a season where former Buckeyes quarterback Quinn Ewers got Texas to the College Football Playoff.
McCord entered the transfer portal immediately after the season, electing to work in the Syracuse offense next season.
For the Cotton Bowl, the Buckeyes will look to Brown as the starter.
Only 12 more days till we get to see Devin Brown and the Buckeyes ball tf out[ 🔥pic.twitter.com/L57YhgFnSJ
— BIA 🌰 (@Buckeye_Zone6) December 17, 2023
Brown completed just 12 of his 22 pass attempts during this season, flashing a big arm that created three big-time throws. The quarterback also saw usage in goal-line situations before suffering an injury against Penn State.
The rest of the offensive star power may not be available in Arlington, as wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. is in Arlington but not participating in practices.
The defense may also be without linebacker Tommy Eichenberg and defensive interior Michael Hall Jr., as both are expected to declare for the NFL Draft.
Ohio State fielded one of the highest rates of success on defense via the 3-3-3 with Cover 1 and Cover 3 looks, but an unexpected drop in Havoc prevented the Buckeyes from taking the ball away from opponents.
The secondary is critical in a game against the Missouri offense, with cornerback Denzel Burke projected to go high in the upcoming draft. The junior defensive back will make his NFL decision after the Cotton Bowl, giving hope that his lockdown coverage and nine pass breakups will be available against the Tigers.
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Missouri vs Ohio State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Missouri and Ohio State match up statistically:
Missouri Offense vs Ohio State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 52 | 9 | |
| Line Yards | 100 | 39 | |
| Pass Success | 14 | 1 | |
| Havoc | 68 | 51 | |
| Finishing Drives | 21 | 4 | |
| Quality Drives | 23 | 4 | |
Ohio State Offense vs Missouri Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 46 | 18 | |
| Line Yards | 39 | 22 | |
| Pass Success | 10 | 62 | |
| Havoc | 8 | 54 | |
| Finishing Drives | 30 | 104 | |
| Quality Drives | 8 | 49 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 70 | 7 |
| PFF Coverage | 48 | 6 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 49 | 22 |
| Middle 8 | 5 | 11 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.0 (69) | 27.6 (79) |
| Rush Rate | 55.2% (47) | 51.4% (81) |
Missouri vs Ohio State
Betting Prediction & Pick
Momentum is everything in college football, and Missouri enters AT&T Stadium with more than any other program.
The Tigers made a run at the College Football Playoff, losing to Georgia in Athens with a covering effort. Drinkwitz has parlayed Missouri's on-field play into success on the recruiting trail by luring a five-star recruit while pulling some of the most explosive skill-position players from the portal for next season.
For this game, Cook's arm against the Buckeyes' secondary is the primary handicap. Cook was electric against two packages used by Ohio State: quarters and Cover 3.
Schrader also has a path to creating chunk plays on the ground, as Missouri ran a heavy amount of outside zone and man run concepts. Ohio State's defensive strength came against inside zone, a concept Missouri doesn't use often.
Ohio State may not be able to take advantage of the biggest gaps in the Missouri defense. The Tigers struggled to limit explosive plays, particularly on the ground. A number of SEC offenses generated chunk rushing yards against Mizzou, sending the Tigers to a rank of 97th in defensive rush expected points.
The Buckeyes don't have the ability to generate big plays on the ground, ranking 129th in rush explosives on the season.
Ohio State has also lost the bulk of its running back stable with Miyan Williams declaring for the draft, along with Chip Trayanum and Evan Pryor entering the transfer portal.
Running back TreVeyon Henderson will play for Ohio State, bringing his 12 explosive runs on the season to the Cotton Bowl.
Action Network would make the Buckeyes a touchdown favorite if this game was being played with full rosters.
After the line opened at Ohio State -6.5, the number saw nothing but Tigers money push this game to the point where the Tigers were a favorite. However, with a number of Buckeyes practicing on the turf in Arlington, Ohio State is once again a three-point favorite.
Without Harrison or any depth at the running back position for Ohio State, points from the potent Missouri offense will be crucial.
Pick: Missouri +3 or Better
