We begin the NCAAF Week 5 slate with odds, predictions and four Saturday afternoon betting spots, including Georgia vs. Auburn, Florida vs. Kentucky and more.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 5, here's the full piece.
- 2022: 45-20-1 +22.82 units (69.2%)
- 2023: 14-10-0 +2.88 units (58.3%)
- Overall: 59-30-1 +25.70 units (66.3%)
Stuckey's 4 Afternoon NCAAF Situational Spots
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Kentucky -1 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Auburn +14.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Purdue +1 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | UMass -1 |
Kentucky -1 vs. Florida
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
Coming into the year, I didn't think very highly of this Florida team and was a bit higher than the market on Kentucky. Well, I haven't seen anything substantial enough to change that stance in a material manner.
Yes, Kentucky hasn't really played anybody, so the Cats are certainly a tough team to gauge headed into this game. However, I believe Florida is currently a bit overvalued, living off of its reputation and a home win over a Tennessee team I don't think that highly of this season.
Both defenses have played well to start the season under a pair of very strong coordinators. Although, the data point for Florida against Utah's backup quarterbacks looks a lot worse now than it did at the time since the Utes offense has been stuck in the mud ever since.
Meanwhile, both offenses have looked wonky at times with new quarterbacks under center. In a game that profiles as a complete grinder where points will come at a premium, this likely comes down to which quarterback you trust more.
At under a field goal at home against a Florida team that has had major road woes of late, I'm siding with Devin Leary and the Cats.
Leary has missed some easy throws this season against subpar competition but has generally played better as the games have gone on.
Offensive coordinator Liam Coen hinted that Leary has been working through a mechanical issue after recovering from his pectoral injury. It apparently just takes him time to loosen up on his throws, which could burn the Cats down the road in SEC play, but I just don't see this Florida offense creating much margin if Leary has accuracy issues early on.
I'm also under the impression that Kentucky hasn't shown much on offense given the level of competition it has faced.
It has also dealt with some shuffling along the offensive line, which I thought had a chance to be one of the most improved units in the country at full strength after a disastrous 2022 season.
Well, it might finally have the opportunity to showcase that improvement if star offensive guard and team captain Kenneth Horsey returns from an injury suffered in the season opener. His status remains up in the air, but this was the original target return date. UK should at least get its blocking tight end back and has gained some much-needed continuity with the new alignment if he doesn't.
With Graham Mertz — who almost went to Kentucky in the offseason, oddly enough — under center, the Florida offense wants to lean heavily on its excellent running back duo and a short passing attack that doesn't take too many risks with a limited quarterback and wide receiver group that has only one legitimate threat so far in Ricky Pearsall.
Expect the Wildcats to load the box in order to take away the run, forcing Mertz to beat them through the air. Mertz, who has never really demonstrated he can do just that against a high-quality defense, will have some success with the quick passing attack, but I don't trust him to continuously drive the ball down the field without making key mistakes against an always-reliable and opportunistic UK defense.
There's a reason why Florida sits at 116th nationally in third-down conversion percentage.
While the Florida offense has lacked explosiveness, ranking 121st in that department, Kentucky's offense has lived on explosive plays. The Wildcats rank No. 1 in the country in that department, albeit against weaker competition.
That spells bad news for a Florida defense that has one primary weakness this season: stopping explosive plays. It ranks dead last among 133 FBS teams in that area.
I believe this first vs. worst matchup will ultimately decide this contest with Kentucky hitting a few explosive plays in a game where both teams will struggle to consistently move the chains.
Go Cats!
Notable Nugget
Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops is 9-4 against the spread (69.2%) as a small home favorite of less than four points at Kentucky, covering by an average margin of just under six points per game.
| | | |
Auburn +14.5 vs. Georgia
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS
In two games against Power 5 opponents, Auburn has thrown for 150 combined yards. That's not a typo.
So, how will the Tigers score? That's honestly a good question I don't have a great answer to.
For starters, they will need to get better quarterback play from presumably Payton Thorne, who Hugh Freeze has stated will still get the nod under center this week after getting pulled at Texas A&M. Although, Thorne will likely have a short leash if he makes early mistakes and/or continues to miss wide-open wide receivers.
Regardless, Freeze may still also utilize quarterback Robby Ashford in some heavy RPO packages.
The good news is whoever is under center will get to play at home after both of those pitiful performances came on the road. Plus, Thorne has been very hit-or-miss throughout his career, so maybe you get the good version on Saturday.
Regardless, Auburn will completely rely on its ground game, led by a deep trio of backs in Jarquez Hunter, Damari Alston and Brian Battie.
Based on the early underlying metrics, that's the way to attack this Bulldogs defense. The Tigers will just need to grind this game down to a halt by leaning on the rush with a few play-action deep shots and some potential trick plays mixed in while relying on the defense that has played at a very high level to start the year.
Ultimately, this is just a play on the number, as I only have these teams separated by two touchdowns in my power ratings before adjusting for home-field advantage.
In my opinion, there are just no true elite teams this season, including Georgia. That may partly explain why top-five teams are just 4-13-2 ATS, along with the new clock rules, which should help Auburn here as well.
While still one of the best teams in the country, the Bulldogs are a far cry from that dominant unit we saw the past two seasons.
Lastly, and this is purely anecdotal, the Bulldogs just look a bit off. I don't know if it's complacency after back-to-back national titles with a joke of a schedule, but they have started way too slow out of the gates for my liking so far in 2023, which will ultimately burn them on the road in the SEC if they continue that trend.
It's also the first road start for Carson Beck, who has looked OK but unspectacular in an offense that I believe really misses offensive coordinator Todd Monken.
Getting over two touchdowns in a game that should be lower-scoring is too enticing for me to pass up, even if I'm admittedly petrified of backing this Auburn offense.
I'm also buying low on Auburn after an embarrassing performance last week in College Station, where I faded the Tigers against a motivated Aggies bunch out for revenge.
Weird things happen in Jordan Hare, so I also won't be surprised if this is super tight in the fourth quarter.
I may look super foolish here if Georgia comes out with a renewed sense of urgency and suddenly turns it on for league play, but it won't be the first or last time that happens.
War Eagle!
Notable Nugget
Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze owns a 26-12 ATS record (68.4%) as an underdog in his career, covering by 6.5 points per game. That includes a 9-2 ATS mark when catching more than two touchdowns with three outright victories in the past four in this spot.
Also, as a home conference underdog, Auburn has gone 42-30-1 (58.3%) since 2005.
| | | |
Purdue +1 vs. Illinois
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ Peacock
A pair of teams that have disappointed to start the season will meet in West Lafayette when Purdue hosts Illinois.
I actually fancy the home team here. I just have not been impressed with Illinois this season.
As expected, the defense has taken a major step back after losing three defensive backs who went in the top 75 of the NFL Draft. That's simply not production a team of Illinois' caliber can replace in one season. On the season, Illinois ranks 97th in Passing Downs Success Rate.
That drop in efficiency hasn't surprised me, but the struggles up front have, considering that was supposed to be the strength of this unit. The Illini front seven ranks in the bottom 20 nationally in Line Yards, Stuff Rate and Havoc Rate.
Additionally, Illinois really misses defensive coordinator Ryan Walters, who turned his success in Champaign into a head-coaching job with Purdue.
His familiarity with what Bret Bielema wants to do should give the Boilermakers an edge here with a defense that certainly lacks talent at multiple spots. They've also definitely been a bit unlucky on late downs, which are a bit more erratic.
Plus, I'm not a big fan of quarterback Luke Altmyer nor the Illini wide receiver corps on a rush-first offense that really misses Chase Brown, who's now with the Bengals.
Meanwhile, the Purdue offense hasn't had any problem moving the ball under new offensive coordinator Graham Harrell and Texas transfer quarterback Hudson Card. Against three Power 5 opponents and a 4-0 Fresno State squad, it has averaged just under 400 yards per game.
The Boilermakers just have not enjoyed any good fortune at the end of drives in large part due to ill-timed fumbles and fourth-down struggles (117th nationally), which are high-variance metrics. The Wisconsin loss perfectly sums up Purdue's 1-3 start to the season. It actually outgained the Badgers, 396-388, but lost by 21 due to three turnovers and a pair of failed fourth-down conversion attempts.
Consequently, Purdue ranks 120th in FBS in Points Per Opportunity.
I expect some positive regression in that department in the near term, starting this week against a very vulnerable Illinois defense, especially after the Boilers figured out some things that worked in the run game last week.
I'm not sure the market has properly downgraded Illinois enough from last year's team. There's a reason the Illini have started out 0-4 ATS on the season with a pair of sound beatings at the hands of Penn State and Kansas in addition to a pair of one-possession home wins over Group of Five schools in Florida Atlantic (with a backup quarterback) and Toledo, which would've won outright if not for a miraculous late fourth-down conversion.
Lastly, Illinois has had major discipline issues to start the season, ranking 112th in penalty yards per game. That could spell doom on the road in league play.
Ultimately, I believe this is a good spot to buy low on the Boilermakers after some misleading results and continue to fade an Illinois defense that has major issues.
Plus, Purdue will be playing its second straight home game with an extra day to prepare after taking on Wisconsin last Friday night. That additional time should benefit Walters in his quest for some revenge over his former boss.
Boiler Up!
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Purdue has been the least profitable home team in all of college football. Over that span, Purdue has gone 45-72-1 (38.5%) ATS, failing to cover by over a field goal per game.
| | | |
UMass -1 vs. Arkansas State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Arkansas State, fresh off an upset win over Southern Miss, travels to UMass for a sleepy nonconference spot before another Sun Belt clash at Troy.
This is the same Red Wolves team that lost by a combined score of 110-3 on the road against Memphis and Oklahoma to start the season.
UMass also knows which quarterback to prepare for with a full game tape of action — a luxury Southern Miss didn't have last Saturday before getting torched by true freshman dual-threat Jaylen Raynor in his first career start.
Meanwhile, UMass is certainly improved under head coach Don Brown in his second year after finally being able to build up the roster with better recruiting and an increase in scholarships. The results might not be there from a win-loss perspective, but UMass is getting closer to respectability.
After a season-opening upset victory at New Mexico State, the Minutemen have come up on the short end of the stick in a few competitive games despite dealing with a plethora of quarterback injuries.
They lost by two at Eastern Michigan on a final-minute touchdown despite outgaining the Eagles, 464-371. Then, last week against New Mexico, they fell by three points in overtime despite a whopping 495-338 total yardage advantage in large part due to failed fourth-down attempts.
I'm also under the impression that Taisun Phommachanh, who gives UMass the best chance to constantly move the ball, has a good chance of returning from injury this week.
However, if not, the other backups have gained invaluable game experience and looked more than adequate running an offense that now boasts more talent at receiver thanks to the portal in addition to a much more experienced offensive line.
The Minutemen should benefit from the return of star cornerback Jordan Mahoney, who missed last week with an injury. Mahoney, who has pro potential, is the best defender on the team. He's also the most important in Don Brown's blitz-heavy scheme that leaves cornerbacks on islands.
With Mahoney presumably returning on the outside, Brown can dial up more exotic pressure looks to confuse the true freshman making his first road start.
After a couple of flukey losses and key injuries, I think the Minutemen have some value this week against a bad Arkansas State team that could come out completely flat for this nonconference bout.
UMass may inevitably pull a UMass, but more wins should finally be on the horizon for this improved squad.
Go U!
Notable Nugget
After winning as an underdog of a touchdown or more the previous week, road teams in nonconference games have gone just 26-40 (39.4%) ATS since 2005.
| | | |
