We continue the Week 5 slate with two Saturday night college football picks and predictions for Sept. 28.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 5, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 9-13 (40.9%)
- Overall: 108-83-1 (56.6%)
College Football Picks, Predictions for Saturday Night
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | Georgia -2 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Penn State -17 |
Georgia -2 at Alabama
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
In my opinion, the best thing that happened for Kirby Smart before the bye week was barely beating Kentucky in Lexington.
He's a master of using performances like that to motivate his team, which will also be out for revenge for last season's SEC Championship loss that ultimately kept the Bulldogs out of the College Football Playoff.
Don't think that the quote from Jalen Milroe about Georgia quitting in that game hasn't been plastered everywhere.
I also still have two primary concerns surrounding Alabama that could ultimately burn it here.
- Offensive line
- Cornerback
Getting Kadyn Proctor back healthy helps shore up the left tackle spot, but I have concerns elsewhere.
That could be extremely problematic against a Georgia defensive front that returns its best interior pass rusher in Warren Brinson, who has played only three snaps this season.
I also think potential top overall draft pick Mykel Williams is more than likely to return after he got dinged in the opener. The bye week ultimately helped Georgia in a multitude of ways.
On the other side of the ball, Alabama looks very vulnerable at cornerback with USC transfer Domani Jackson and a host of inexperienced freshmen on the outside. However, the advanced metrics might not show it since TJ Finley and Byrum Brown couldn't hit any wide-open receivers after Tyler Van Dyke got hurt early for Wisconsin.
The superb safety room can only compensate so much for a cornerback room that still needs time to grow.
Georgia quarterback Carson Beck should have plenty of opportunities to attack this secondary throughout the night, especially working behind an excellent offensive line that can contain the Bama pass rush — even without Tate Ratledge, as Micah Morris can step right in.
I've also been very impressed with new center Jared Wilson at a position of concern coming into the season after the loss of Sedrick Van Pran to the NFL.
I expect Beck to find success early and often attacking downfield — even if the wide receiver and tight end weapons aren't as elite as in years past.
Meanwhile, the defensive game plan will likely focus on containing Milroe's legs and taking away the deep balls, forcing him to excel in the intermediary area — where he struggles.
Ultimately, I believe Georgia's defense is much more likely to create drive-killing negative plays, which should be the difference.
Remember that Georgia still has the best data point of either team with a blowout win over Clemson in the season opener. That victory has also aged like a fine bourbon, as the Tigers have since demolished both Appalachian State and NC State.
I can see the case for taking Alabama as a home underdog, but I personally believe the Dawgs — who are still my No. 1 power-rated team — should at least be a field-goal favorite here.
As a result, I'll take anything under a field goal in a usual Kirby smash spot even on the road in Tuscaloosa, where Bama hasn't closed as an underdog since 2007 — which, amazingly, is also the last year that Georgia played in T-Town in front of a full crowd (2020 has been the only meeting since).
Notable Nugget
Including the postseason, Kirby Smart is 31-16 ATS (66%) against ranked opponents, covering by an average of over four points per game. Among 498 coaches in our Action Labs database, nobody has been more profitable against ranked foes.
That also includes a 25-12 mark (67.6%) against the number as a favorite.
My Projection: Georgia -4
Pick: Georgia -2.5 or Better
Penn State -17 vs. Illinois
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC
This is setting up as a Penn State home blowout.
Yes, Illinois is off to a 4-0 start and is the only team in the country with multiple wins over ranked opponents. However, it could easily be 2-2 on the season. If that were the case, this line would likely be 20-plus.
The Illini were outplayed by Kansas — which hasn't looked great in other games — but benefited from a game-changing pick-six at the end of the first half. Even with that defensive score and a +3 turnover margin, they still had to come from behind in the fourth quarter at home.
They also faced a fourth-quarter deficit at Nebraska in a coin-flip game before ultimately winning in overtime. That game also featured a game-changing interception — this time on an incredible play in the end zone that took a Cornhusker touchdown off the board.
The Illini also didn't look too hot at home against Central Michigan for most of that game despite pulling it out by 21 thanks to a 60-yard field goal and a late touchdown after a failed Chippewa onside kick attempt.
While a bit fortunate overall (+7 turnover margin), Illinois is definitely better than I had anticipated.
Luke Altmyer has played much better this season despite getting a bit lucky with a 10:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 4:4 Big-Time Throw-to-Turnover-Worthy Play ratio.
However, he has benefited immensely from the late addition of transfer Zakhari Franklin, who gives Illinois a dynamic duo on the outside with him and Pat Bryant.
Those two have been responsible for most of the offense through the air in the RPO-heavy offense since the Illini have struggled to get the ground game going despite a talented crop of backs.
That's in large part due to struggles in the run-blocking department. I don't see that changing this week against the Penn State front.
Do I trust Altmyer to keep it going in Happy Valley on a Saturday night against a Penn State secondary that should be at full strength this weekend? Not really. I expect a critical mistake or two.
The Illini secondary, led by the two great Scotts, has excelled at taking the ball away so far this season. However, Penn State should own the trenches, allowing for new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to work his magic with quarterback Drew Allar.
Keep in mind that Kotelnicki saw this Illinois defense last year when Kansas amassed 539 total yards of offense in a game it led by 21 in the fourth quarter. I'm sure he also spoke with longtime friend Lance Leipold, who faced this Illinois team again earlier this season.
For what it's worth, favorites of 17-plus in a matchup of two ranked teams have gone 40-23 ATS (63.5%) since 2005, covering by an average of just under five points per game. That includes a mark of 11-3 ATS when the underdog is undefeated like Illinois.
Notable Nugget
Including the postseason, James Franklin is a silly 71-43 ATS (62.3%) as a favorite, covering by over four points per game. That includes an ATS record of 43-24-2 (64.2%) when laying double-digits.
My Projection: Penn State -19.8
Pick: Penn State -18 or Better
