NCAAF Picks, Best Bets for Saturday Afternoon
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
  | 4:15 p.m. | |
  | 5 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Time is flying by, as we're in — believe it or not — Week 9 of the college football season.
While Illinois vs. Oregon and Missouri vs. Alabama take center stage as part of the afternoon slate, our staff is in search of the best betting value.
And that's exactly what we provide you with in this piece, with four best bets across four games.
So, here are our NCAAF predictions for Week 9, including afternoon best bets for Texas vs. Vanderbilt, TCU vs. Texas Tech and more.
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Texas Tech vs. TCU Best Bet
By Cody Goggin
Simply put, I think the wrong team may be favored in Texas Tech vs. TCU. The Horned Frogs are 4-3 on the season and their underlying metrics look good, but I think that a lot of this is schedule related.
TCU’s defense ranks 45th in Success Rate allowed and 53rd in EPA Per Play allowed. It’s been best against the pass, ranking 17th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 29th in EPA Per Pass allowed.
On the surface, this looks like the Frogs’ pass defense is really good, but they’ve played Utah, Houston, UCF and Stanford, who are all 106th or lower in Pass Success Rate this season.
The only above average passing offenses they played were Kansas and SMU, who scored 27 and 66, respectively.
Texas Tech passes the ball at the 14th-highest rate in FBS and ranks 50th in Pass Success Rate and 32nd in EPA Per Pass. It’s been solid on this side of the ball overall, ranking 45th in Success Rate and 44th in EPA Per Play.
It also ranks 18th in PFF’s Pass Blocking grade and should be able to have success against TCU’s pass rush.
The Texas Tech defense doesn’t expire confidence, ranking 106th in both Success Rate allowed and EPA Per Play allowed this season.
TCU quarterback Josh Hoover has played very well and is the X-factor in this game. If Hoover plays well, then TCU will likely be able to score at will, but if he doesn’t, then Texas Tech could win this game.
At 6.5 points, I love taking Texas Tech as an underdog here, as I don’t think there’s that large of a difference between these two in-state rivals.
Pick: Texas Tech +6.5 (Play to +6)
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Oregon State vs. Cal Best Bet
Oregon State's offense can move the ball on the ground, and this will create a good matchup against Cal on Saturday.
The Beavers are running the ball on 57.3% of their offensive plays, and they're doing it very effectively behind Anthony Hankerson and Jam Griffin.
Hankerson has a whopping 13 touchdowns on the season already as the team's bruiser, while Griffin is the big-play guy, averaging 6.2 yards per carry.
Griffin missed their previous game against UNLV and is questionable to play in this game.
Either way, Oregon State ranks top-15 in both Rushing Success Rate and EPA/Rush.
Cal's defensive front has been getting beat repeatedly this season, ranking 79th in Defensive Line Yards and 90th in Stuff Rate. It also can't get teams off the field in third-and-short situations, ranking 130th in Power Success Rate allowed.
Jaivian Thomas is now the leading rusher for Cal over Jaydn Ott and has – by far – been the more productive runner, averaging 6.2 yards per carry. He’ll be a big key in this game because Oregon State hasn't been able to stop anyone on the ground.
Two weeks ago, Nevada ran for 353 yards and 8.6 yards per carry, and Oregon State followed up the next game by giving up almost five yards per carry to UNLV.
For the season, the Beavers are 125th in Rushing Success Rate allowed, so expect Cal to have a big day on the ground.
Oregon State is also allowing 4.8 points per scoring opportunity, which puts it at 128th in Finishing Drives allowed.
I have 54.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 49 points.
Pick: Over 49 (Play to 51)
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Texas vs. Vanderbilt Best Bet
After a demoralizing loss to Georgia last weekend, the former No. 1 team in the nation will look to bounce back against Vanderbilt.
What looked like a scheduling blessing at the beginning of the season may turn out to be a nightmare as Texas makes the trip to Nashville.
Vanderbilt once was widely accepted as the patsy of the SEC, but it has quickly shed that image this season and turned itself into the grim reaper of America’s toughest football conference.
After usurping key staff and players from New Mexico State in the offseason, Vanderbilt has been on the ascension and has consistently outperformed all season.
The Vanderbilt story is special. It upset Virginia Tech, Alabama and Kentucky, took Missouri to the limit and will now try to do the unthinkable and knock off Texas at home.
I don’t think Vanderbilt will win this game outright, but I do think it has the capability to keep it very close.
The angle around the Vanderbilt pick is about the triangulation between standout quarterback Diego Pavia, head coach Clark Lea and college football whisperer and special assistant Jerry Kill.
Pavia and the Commodores employ an option run game that's historically been a difficult matchup for opposing defenses that don’t see this style of play frequently.
The Texas offense might be able to simply overpower the Vanderbilt defense, although the Commodores have been respectable on defense season to date.
Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers is still looking for a statement game since coming back from injury, and perhaps we’ll get that — but you can’t discount Vandy’s ability to rise to the occasion.
The Dores have been one of the scrappiest surprise teams of the season, and I think they’re just getting too many points here.
Too much stock is being put into Texas being the better roster and having a bounce-back game, so I think this is a good chance to grab the points.
Pick: Vanderbilt +18.5 (Play to +17)
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New Mexico vs. Colorado State Best Bet
By Joshua Nunn
New Mexico has been one of the more surprising teams in the Mountain West, far exceeding preseason expectations up to this point.
The offense, led by quarterback Devon Dampier, has been electric, and it’s consistent in putting up a ton of yards and points week in and week out, including 552 total yards and 50 points in its win last week over Utah State last week.
The Lobos have scored 50 points or more in three consecutive games, and I don’t expect the Colorado State defense to provide enough resistance to hold UNM under 30 points this week.
CSU comes in ranked just 111th in Defensive EPA Per Play and 113th in Standard Down Success Rate allowed.
Colorado State has struggled this year in creating Defensive Havoc, securing only nine sacks on defense and forcing just nine turnovers.
Since the loss against Fresno State, New Mexico has run for 289 yards per game while averaging 6.3 yards per carry with 17 rushing touchdowns over the last three weeks.
The Rams rank just 71st nationally in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and 130th in Defensive Finishing Drives. When New Mexico works the ball into the red zone, it’s scoring touchdowns on 72% of trips this season. Look for Lobo drives to end in touchdowns more often than not.
With all that's been talked about with the New Mexico offense, it has yet to play a game this season where it has sat on a comfortable lead.
UNM has had to outscore opponents to remain in the win column the last three weeks, as we’ve seen the Lobos score 35, 24 and 29 points in the second half of their last three games alone.
I’m not convinced we’ll see a ton of defensive improvement this week, but we should see continued scoring from New Mexico in all stages of the game — especially if playing from behind.
This will be another high-flying affair and one which I think New Mexico can win. I expect a close game in the late stages, and if UNM is trailing, there will be motivation to score.
If the Lobos are ahead, they’ll need to score to extend the margin with the defense being untrustworthy.
Pick: New Mexico TT Over 28.5 (Play to 30.5)
