North Texas vs SMU Odds
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19.5 -110 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | +725 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19.5 -110 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | -1200 |
Editor's Note: SMU quarterback Preston Stone has reportedly cleared concussion protocol and will start Friday night.
Week 11 features a Friday night American Athletic Conference matchup down in Dallas, as the SMU Mustangs welcome in the North Texas Mean Green.
North Texas enters this one after dropping four of its last five, including three in a row. SMU, meanwhile, enters after winning its last five games with four of those victories coming by multiple scores.
SMU looks to keep pace with Tulane, as they both sit at 5-0 in AAC play, while North Texas needs a win in this one to get out of the AAC basement.
Can the Mean Green get the job done and pull the upset on the road?
It's time to find a betting pick, prediction and preview for the North Texas vs. SMU Safeway Bowl.
North Texas Mean Green
Eric Morris has had a tough year for his first season down in Denton, as his Mean Green currently sit at 3-6 on the year and 1-4 in conference play. This is especially disappointing given that this team finished 7-7 a year ago and made a Conference USA Championship appearance before joining the AAC.
This matchup at SMU figures to be one of North Texas' toughest tests of the season.
The Mean Green have been pretty prolific offensively this season despite losing the majority of their games. This team averages 34.8 points per game and is headlined by Chandler Rogers, who has thrown for 21 touchdowns and only three interceptions all year long.
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Rogers has this team at 44th in the country in Pass Success Rate as the Mean Green pass the ball at the 22nd-highest rate in the nation. That high passing rate likely comes from a result of playing from behind.
Despite passing the ball so often, UNT's run game still ranks fifth in explosiveness.
On the other side, the North Texas defense has been absolutely horrendous. It allows 36.7 points per game with poor marks against both the run and the pass. The Mean Green don't force many turnovers, and they don't get many stops.
The team ranks 127th in Rush Success Rate Allowed, so just about anyone can run the ball all over it.
This defense is slightly less terrible against the pass, ranking 113th in Pass Success Rate Allowed, but it's still not even close to good enough to slow down a team like the Mustangs.
North Texas will need to find some way to get a few stops in this one to keep this game in check, but that's easier said than done.
SMU Mustangs
The Mustangs enter at 7-2 overall and 5-0 in conference play. Head coach Rhett Lashlee looks to keep his team focused because SMU will likely need to win its last three games before facing Tulane in the conference title game.
SMU’s offense ranks 20th in explosiveness and is averaging a whopping 40 points per game. The Mustangs run a fairly even split between the run and the pass, and they rank fairly well in both.
They come in at 32nd in Rush Success Rate with running back Jaylan Knighton leading the charge with 511 yards this season.
The pass attack is headlined by sophomore Preston Stone, who has thrown an impressive 21 touchdowns to five interceptions this season. Knighton and Stone should both dominate a brutal North Texas defense.
Defensively, the Mustangs have played lights-out, as they allow only 15.9 points per game, giving them an average margin of victory of 24.1 points this season.
The Mustangs shut down both the run and the pass well, ranking ninth against the run, third against the pass and 22nd in Havoc.
North Texas needs to capitalize on the big play, as SMU sits just 71st in explosiveness allowed. That aspect will be a big test against Rogers and the North Texas passing attack.
North Texas vs SMU
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how North Texas and SMU match up statistically:
North Texas Offense vs. SMU Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 39 | 9 | |
| Line Yards | 30 | 25 | |
| Pass Success | 44 | 3 | |
| Havoc | 71 | 75 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 21 | 57 | |
| Quality Drives | 39 | 4 | |
SMU Offense vs. North Texas Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 32 | 127 | |
| Line Yards | 41 | 117 | |
| Pass Success | 60 | 100 | |
| Havoc | 12 | 128 | |
| Finishing Drives | 29 | 124 | |
| Quality Drives | 13 | 129 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 86 | 40 |
| PFF Coverage | 81 | 46 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 67 | 115 |
| Middle 8 | 117 | 7 |
| Seconds per Play | 22.9 (9) | 24.5 (22) |
| Rush Rate | 48.0% (111) | 52.6% (64) |
North Texas vs SMU
Betting Pick & Prediction
North Texas can put up the points to hang around with anyone, but the Mean Green defense may not do its part to keep this one close.
Expect the Mustangs to do whatever they want offensively to keep pace with their average of 40 points per game. Ultimately, their defense will be the difference in this one.
SMU should get stops consistently enough to run away with this edition of the Safeway Bowl. Give me SMU -17 or better.
