Ohio vs Wyoming Odds
| Ohio Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 43 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Wyoming Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 43 -110o / -110u | +130 |
Ohio and Wyoming will meet in the Arizona Bowl on Friday afternoon in what is shaping up to be one of the more unique games for both teams.
Wyoming ended the season on a two-game winning streak but will be without a number of key players on both sides of the ball due to injury and the transfer portal.
Similarly, Ohio will be without star quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who tore his ACL and meniscus in Ohio's Nov. 15 game against Ball State. Stepping in for Rourke is sophomore C.J. Harris, who has been underwhelming in his two starts to end the year.
As is the case in many bowl games, motivation will play a major factor in an Arizona Bowl matchup between two teams that have to replace significant production on both sides of the ball.
Ohio Bobcats
Ohio will arrive in Arizona fresh off a disappointing showing in the MAC Championship game. The Bobcats were defeated by Toledo, 17-7, in a game that showcased how important Rourke was to the offense.
Harris was unable to find the end zone in Rourke's absence, throwing for just 163 yards and an interception.
INTERCEPTION, Toledo!
CJ Harris throws a dangerous ball into double coverage, and Nate Bauer makes him pay! Toledo takes over hoping to convert it into points with 4:48 remaining 2Q. #MACtionpic.twitter.com/lbLGtM8iXn
— Hustle Belt (@HustleBelt) December 3, 2022
Without Rourke, Ohio will need to develop a balanced offensive attack, which will be difficult for a team that ranked 93rd in Rushing Success Rate and 102nd in EPA per Rush.
These shortcomings on offense do not bode well for an Ohio team that has relied on its offensive success to win games this season.
Defensively, the Bobcats rank 80th nationally in overall Success Rate Allowed at 40.3%. Ohio is especially vulnerable to giving up the big play, allowing an explosiveness rating of 1.34, which balloons to 1.51 on passing plays.
These explosive plays have resulted in Ohio ranking 126th nationally in the percentage of first downs that it gives up on first or second down. These types of chunk plays will be crucial for a Wyoming offense that is missing a number of key pieces.
Wyoming Cowboys
Wyoming has found major success in bowl games under head coach Craig Bohl. The Cowboys come into Friday looking to win their fourth bowl game in a row.
Additionally, Bohl has been an extremely successful postseason motivator, leading Wyoming to an 11-3 against-the-spread record in the last 14 bowl appearances.
The Cowboys will have their work cut out for them after losing a number of significant contributors to the transfer portal and injury. Wyoming will be without its top four running backs due to a pair of transfers and a pair of injuries.
As of writing, Bohl has yet to announce who will start at running back for a Wyoming team that ranked 13th nationally in rush rate by running the ball on 61.9% of its offensive plays.
It appears the Cowboys have two options at RB in redshirt freshman Jordon Vaughn and true freshman LJ Richardson. Regardless of who starts, Bohl has retained his confidence by saying, "We'll be in great shape."
In addition to the running backs, the Cowboys will lose significant production through the air as their leading receiver, Joshua Cobbs, entered the transfer portal at the conclusion of the season. Cobbs led the Cowboys with 35 receptions on the season.
Even without Dobbs, the Cowboys will be able to find success through the air against an Ohio defense that has given up a 41.9% Success Rate against the pass to rank 94th nationally.
Wyoming will take advantage of this weak secondary through the play of junior quarterback Andrew Peasley. Although Peasley's numbers have been underwhelming, his experience (11 games played this season) will be invaluable.
Wyoming ties the game at 14! Andrew Peasley to Treyton Welch for the 29 yard TD! pic.twitter.com/GFDuU4vis7
— 𝗙𝗢𝗟𝗟𝗢𝗪 @𝗙𝗧𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗱𝟳 (@FTBeard7) October 9, 2022
Look for Peasley to add a substantial passing attack by exposing Ohio's tendency to give up explosive plays. This, combined with a familiar rushing attack, will lead to offensive success for the Cowboys.
Similar to the offense, the Cowboys will be without three contributors on the defensive end due to the transfer portal. Defensive end Oluwaseyi Omotosho (6.5 sacks), cornerback Keonte Glinton (19 tackles) and cornerback Cam Stone (23 tackles) will all be taking their talents elsewhere next season.
Although these losses are significant, the Cowboys will be going up against an Ohio offense without its starting quarterback; Rourke was arguably as important to his offense as any player in the country.
Ohio ran the ball at one of the lowest rates in the country (51.4%) due to its top-15 ranking in Passing Success Rate (45.5%). Without the presence of Rourke, the passing success that Ohio's offense relied on will be gone.
Look for a Wyoming defense that ranks 71st in PFF coverage to expose Rourke's absence.
Ohio vs Wyoming Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ohio and Wyoming match up statistically:
Ohio Offense vs. Wyoming Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 94 | 97 |  |
| Line Yards | 79 | 109 | |
| Pass Success | 22 | 29 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 100 | 116 | |
| Havoc | 44 | 91 | |
| Finishing Drives | 70 | 75 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Wyoming Offense vs. Ohio Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 64 | 36 | |
| Line Yards | 26 | 40 | |
| Pass Success | 120 | 113 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 16 | 84 | |
| Havoc | 47 | 29 | |
| Finishing Drives | 97 | 57 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 126 | 128 |
| PFF Coverage | 113 | 71 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 102 | 48 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.5 (105) | 29.1 (115) |
| Rush Rate | 51.4% (84) | 61.9% (13) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Ohio vs Wyoming Betting Pick
This matchup between Ohio and Wyoming is a perfect snapshot of the current state of college football bowl season. Both teams have a number of opt-outs and injuries, but neither team will lack motivation.
In a game that features two offenses struggling to find success, I believe Wyoming will have the pieces necessary to outpace Ohio.
The Bobcats' secondary will be exposed by Peasley, who has the experience and tangibles to make enough plays for Wyoming to put points on the board.
On the other side, Rourke's absence is simply too much for Ohio's offense to overcome given how heavily it relied on him this season.
I will gladly take the points with Bohl (11-3 ATS in bowls) and Wyoming against an Ohio team that will be without its MVP.
Pick: Wyoming +2 or Better |
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