Ohio State vs Notre Dame Odds
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
Historic South Bend will be the site when No. 6 Ohio State enters under Touchdown Jesus to take on No. 9 Notre Dame.
The Buckeyes lead the series, 5-2, with five consecutive wins dating back to 1995.
Both of these teams have undergone transformations at the quarterback position since Ohio State's victory in Week 1 of the 2022 season. The Irish won the transfer portal sweepstakes in the offseason, bringing in a Heisman-contending quarterback in Sam Hartman, who gave Navy a Dublin shillelagh beatdown in Week 0.
Meanwhile, the Buckeyes' offensive momentum was stalled to begin the season in the wake of a training camp quarterback battle. With Ohio State back on track offensively, there's potential for more fireworks than last year's 31-point slobber-knocker.
Ohio State Buckeyes
A couple of non-covers to start the season made people wonder if Ohio State's quarterback competition was still ongoing. Kyle McCord defused those worries with a three-touchdown performance against Western Kentucky.
There are plenty of strengths in head coach Ryan Day's offense, none bigger than the weapons on the outside with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka.
Emeka Egbuka is the best WR2 in football pic.twitter.com/MI1Gzns7CI
— Brodie (@BrodieKnowsBall) September 17, 2023
While McCord's numbers have been beefed up against Youngstown State and Western Kentucky, the third-year quarterback has an even ratio of big-time throws to turnover-worthy plays.
The sample size is minimal, but in 13 pressured pockets, McCord has a 34% adjusted completion rate drop compared to a clean dropback. Notre Dame ranks 15th in pass rush, indicating that blitz heavy and often may be on tap in passing downs.
Ohio State's pass defense has been the best in the nation entering South Bend, with top-five national ranks in coverage, pass rush and limiting explosives in passing downs.
Denzel Burke has been fantastic at left cornerback, providing three pass breakups while allowing just five catches on 17 targets. Burke has logged six forced incompletions, trailing only Jacob Parrish of Kansas State for the national lead.
If there's a defensive hole to be attacked by Notre Dame, the Buckeyes rank 112th in Defensive Stuff Rate. The most glaring example is a Youngstown State rush that was stuffed on only seven of its 31 attempts.
No team has posted a 20-yard gain on the ground against Ohio State, but moving the chains in a methodical drive will be the plan of attack for Notre Dame.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Unlike last season, Notre Dame will field the more experienced quarterback in Hartman this year.
The sixth-year senior has been perfect passing the ball, tallying 13 touchdowns and no interceptions. All three of Hartman's turnover-worthy plays came against NC State's 3-3-5 defense, which terrorized the quarterback dating back to his years with Wake Forest.
A trio of wide receivers in Jayden Thomas, Jaden Greathouse and Rico Flores Jr. has been explosive, averaging more than 2.3 yards per route run.
Lifetime Chap, Jaden Greathouse, is at it again for Notre Dame as he hauls in his third career touchdown for the Irish. #GoIrish#GoChaps
Via @espnpic.twitter.com/33h1YhmVYh
— WestlakeNation (@Westlake_Nation) September 9, 2023
The Irish have been a run-first team, but a slide in Stuff Rate and Line Yards have been present against the defenses of Navy, Tennessee State, NC State and Central Michigan.
Audric Estime averages 4.7 yards after contact, bringing a cannonball mentality between the tackles. There has not been a lack of offensive continuity, as the Irish rank top-15 in Quality Drives and offensive momentum killer.
The defense will look for a repeat of the 2022 game against the Buckeyes in which it limited Ohio State at the line of scrimmage and locked down the explosive targets.
The linebacker position has stood out through the first quarter of the season, as Jack Kiser leads the team in tackles and Marist Liufau leads in pressures.
If there's a concern with the Notre Dame defense, it's tackling fundamentals. Notre Dame ranks 86th in tackling, per PFF, with a drop to 114th in defensive broken tackle rate. Linebacker JD Bertrand and safety Xavier Watts have been the biggest offenders to this point with a combined nine missed tackles.
Ohio State vs Notre Dame
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ohio State and Notre Dame match up statistically:
Ohio State Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 48 | 43 | |
| Line Yards | 12 | 35 | |
| Pass Success | 21 | 6 | |
| Havoc | 31 | 48 | |
| Finishing Drives | 7 | 41 | |
| Quality Drives | 25 | 21 |  |
Notre Dame Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 15 | 7 | |
| Line Yards | 55 | 46 | |
| Pass Success | 19 | 38 | |
| Havoc | 27 | 26 | |
| Finishing Drives | 2 | 10 | |
| Quality Drives | 13 | 3 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 16 | 86 |
| PFF Coverage | 2 | 40 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 17 | 129 |
| Middle 8 | 8 | 35 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.4 (76) | 29.6 (106) |
| Rush Rate | 48.7% (88) | 56.5% (40) |
Ohio State vs Notre Dame
Betting Pick & Prediction
There's an expectation this game will be more aggressive from an offensive play-calling perspective compared to last year. Day was adamant about establishing the rush entering last season's game, but the playbook entering this game has been more hidden.
The film through the Buckeyes' first three games has been generic, as McCord has connected on just five plays beyond 20 yards through the air. The run game featuring TreVeyon Henderson, Chip Trayanum and Miyan Williams will be on full display considering the Irish's mid-FBS ranks against the rush.
Ohio State has as many question marks against the rush as Notre Dame, as the Buckeyes enter this game 112th in Stuff Rate. The inability to stuff Youngstown State and Western Kentucky is a sign that Estime has the chance to move the chains a dozen times against the Buckeyes.
Expect Burke to cut the field in half when Hartman enters passing downs, limiting what the Irish will do in the passing game.
Look for both running games to be effective, as each defense has concerns in tackle grading and Stuff Rate to control the line of scrimmage.
Explosive plays should come at a premium with top-10 ranks for Ohio State's big-play defense against the rush and Notre Dame's big-play defense against the pass.
With moderate gains for both offenses covering the trench, look for excellent secondary play and the new clock rules to keep scoring at a minimum.
