Oklahoma vs Texas Odds
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
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The Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners have been doing battle since 1900, as the Longhorns lead the series, 63-50-5.
The game will be played in the city limits of Dallas for the 101st time, coming from the historic Cotton Bowl next to the Texas State Fair. The Red River Showdown has had plenty of naming variations, all describing the grudge match for the 10-gallon Golden Hat.
For the first time since 2011, one of the teams in this rivalry showdown will be ranked third or better in the AP Top 25. That team in this iteration is the Longhorns, who already have the biggest nonconference win in college football with a Week 2 victory over Alabama.
Head coach Steve Sarkisian brings an undefeated record with national title hopes into Dallas, as no opponent has come within 10 points of the Horns. Although a loss wouldn't end Texas' bid for a national title, a Red River win would make the Longhorns the top team in the coming College Football Playoff rankings.
The Sooners are on a comeback path after a losing season in 2022. Head coach Brent Venables had a rough inaugural season, getting blanked in this very rivalry game a year ago.
Venables dialed back media access this week, looking to limit any bulletin board material in the Texas locker room. With a rejuvenated roster and last season in the rearview mirror, the Sooners believe they're primed for an upset.
Oklahoma Sooners
The resurrection of Oklahoma football started with the defensive side of the ball.
To execute the hybrid four-man front that pivots between quarters and cover 3, Venables requires a linebacker to captain the defense. Danny Stutsman fills that role this season after severe struggles in 2022. Stutsman has improved a missed tackle rate from 15% to 9.3%, precipitating a jump in all counting statistics for the Sooners defense.
Venables praised the highly-graded linebacker as a "really good leader" heaving into the Red River Showdown, catching the attention of the opposing head coach.
"Brent has a lot of Defense, and he carries it all… so, you go in to a game and you're not really sure what you're gonna get."
Steve Sarkisian on Brent Venables' Defense and Danny Stutsman. pic.twitter.com/PZEHDHVt3Y
— Cayden McFarland (@caydenmc) October 2, 2023
Oklahoma continues to send blitz at a high rate of 38% but has improved the success rate up to 61% on the season.
The Sooners have improved to 26th in Defensive Havoc, but the bigger improvement is keeping opponents from driving the field and creating explosives. The Sooners rank top-10 in Line Yards, Quality Drives and Finishing Drives.
A strength of schedule discussion is needed considering the offenses OU has faced, but the Sooners defense has done its part in limiting opponents to 20 points or less.
Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has posted 19 all-purpose touchdowns this season, throwing for nearly 1,600 yards with one of the most explosive offenses in passing downs.
Dillon Gabriel ➡️ Jalil Farooq for a BIG gain 🏹@OU_Footballpic.twitter.com/ec68QPsZgb
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 1, 2023
However, the fifth-year senior does have a few critical areas of focus in his passing numbers so far — a career low in average depth of target and the largest turnover-worthy play rate of his career at 3.3%.
The Sooners' rushing attack has left plenty to be desired from a Success Rate and explosiveness standpoint. Oklahoma ranks 100th or worse in Line Yards and Stuff Rate on offense, as the offensive line has left running backs Marcus Major and Tawee Walker to be hit before they reach the line of scrimmage.
The Sooners have busted only eight runs over 15 yards this season, so their explosiveness will continue to come from Gabriel's left arm.
Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns are developing into a true national title contender, but a couple of key areas persist as the season hits a midpoint.
Texas has struggled to find any breakaways or elusiveness in the ground game, struggling with Line Yards and Rushing Success Rate numbers in the bottom half of FBS.
Jonathon Brooks has been the workhorse of the running back stable, averaging 4.4 yards after contact with six explosive runs on the season.
Jonathon Brooks’ 64-yard TD run from the backfield view is pretty.
Perfectly blocked up front, neither LB fits correctly and AD Mitchell gets just enough on the safety. Sea opens right up. pic.twitter.com/vezBnhPJ8W
— CJ Vogel (@CJVogel_TFB) October 2, 2023
The struggle has come from the Horns' other backs, with inconsistent play from CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue.
Texas has the 38th-highest rate of standard downs on offense, so improvement in the running game will provide shorter distances for a team that owns a third-down conversion rank of 59th. The Longhorns are currently 90th in average distance to go on third downs at 7.3 yards per attempt.
That aspect has been covered up by Quinn Ewers' solid play at the quarterback position.
Quinn with the wheels 💨🤘#HookEmpic.twitter.com/BsZx5UQqAp
— Texas Longhorns (@TexasLonghorns) September 30, 2023
Ewers is having a steady season compared to 2022. The sophomore boasts a 10:1 ratio in passing touchdowns to interceptions, posting only two turnover-worthy throws thus far.
The Longhorns rank fifth in Quality Drives, a statistic that looks at possessions that end with a score, have more than 10 plays, last longer than three minutes or exceed 50 yards total.
The threat of the deep ball has kept opposing secondaries on their heels, as wide receivers Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell both have more than two yards per route run.
The Texas faithful should be excited about a defense unit that's forcing plenty of punts. The Longhorns rank sixth nationally in preventing opposing drives from crossing the 50-yard line, pushing opponents back to an average distance of eight yards on third downs.
The numbers are even greater when teams get into scoring position, as only 16 opponent drives have crossed the 40-yard line. Those drives have averaged just two points per trip.
Linebacker Jaylan Ford leads the team in stops and quarterback hurries while also snagging two interceptions.
Oklahoma vs Texas
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma and Texas match up statistically:
Oklahoma Offense vs Texas Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 51 | 7 | |
| Line Yards | 100 | 15 | |
| Pass Success | 2 | 21 | |
| Havoc | 16 | 83 | |
| Finishing Drives | 6 | 7 |  |
| Quality Drives | 8 | 19 | |
Texas Offense vs Oklahoma Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 74 | 25 | |
| Line Yards | 83 | 3 | |
| Pass Success | 45 | 15 | |
| Havoc | 34 | 26 | |
| Finishing Drives | 72 | 6 | |
| Quality Drives | 5 | 8 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 11 | 82 |
| PFF Coverage | 30 | 63 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 43 | 58 |
| Middle 8 | 21 | 62 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.6 (24) | 26.2 (53) |
| Rush Rate | 53.6% (57) | 55.3% (54) |
Oklahoma vs Texas
Betting Pick & Prediction
The biggest question for this Red River matchup is whether or not the Sooners have closed the gap a year after a 49-0 drubbing at the hands of the Longhorns. The advanced analytics suggest Oklahoma has made up that ground, but a poor strength of schedule certainly puts the validity of the Sooners' numbers in question.
Despite the resume differences, there are plenty of areas where Oklahoma can attack this Texas defense.
The Longhorns bring a mid-FBS rank in coverage, per PFF, as defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski elects to run quarters coverage with a mix of cover 3.
Both have produced a moderate Success Rate, but a negative EPA with quarters coverage leaves Texas open to explosives through the air.
Those explosive pass plays can happen in passing downs, where the Sooners are top-10 in expected points. While Texas has posted a Passing Downs Success Rate of 20th, the Horns have allowed the largest EPA in all of college football on passing downs. The struggles have come primarily against the pass, as the quarters and cover 3 defense has allowed 12 passes beyond 30 yards.
Similar to the Sooners, Texas will have advantages in creating explosives in passing downs. While the Longhorns rank 133rd defensively against passing down explosives, Oklahoma ranks 68th against an easier slate of offenses.
While Mitchell and Worthy are sure to find holes in the Sooners' cover 2 and cover 3 looks, Ewers has been inconsistent with his downfield passing. The Texas quarterback has gone just 4-of-19 on throws over 20 yards with an adjusted completion percentage nearly cut in half from his deep passing attempts from last season.
The market has been all over the Longhorns early in the week, but a deep dive into the explosive passing and Success Rate numbers against Oklahoma's preferred coverages indicates the Sooners can trade shots.
Action Network projects the Red River Rivalry as a five-point ball game in favor of Texas. The total has caught resistance at key numbers in the 60s, as each offense will have periods of inconsistency without a complementary rushing attack.
As for the side, the strength of schedule and recent victory in Tuscaloosa will have busloads of investors steaming the Longhorns number.
With a projection of less than a touchdown, Oklahoma is a buy with the expectation that the explosive play will be the great equalizer for the Sooners in this edition of the Red River Rivalry.
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