Old Dominion vs Liberty Odds
| Old Dominion Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 59.5 -105o / -115u | +400 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 59.5 -105o / -115u | -550 |
Old Dominion and Liberty take a break from their conference schedules to play an in-state rivalry match.
The Flames have been on fire this year. New head coach Jamey Chadwell has his offense cooking, as Liberty is undefeated and inside the Top 25.
Old Dominion’s offensive overhaul hasn't been as successful, although the Monarchs have shown surprising competence and still have an outside shot at bowl eligibility.
What are our picks and predictions for this Commonwealth collision? Should you back Chadwell's crew with Liberty favored by almost two touchdowns at home? Or will the Monarchs have enough to challenge for the crown?
Old Dominion Monarchs
Ricky Rahne’s outfit entered 2023 trying to reset their offense to compliment their more-than-capable defense. New offensive coordinator Kevin Decker arrived from Fordham with the veer-and-shoot playbook he learned from studying Josh Heupel’s UCF team on film.
Despite being regarded as one of the worst rosters in FBS entering the season, the team has been surprisingly good, already eclipising its preseason win total.
Grant Wilson is the quarterback; he transferred with Decker from Fordham. After a nightmarish start against Texas A&M Commerce in the last week of September, he has settled into the starter role and had his best passing game of the season two weeks ago against James Madison’s ferocious defense. He still takes too many sacks, with 37 on the season.
There’s a distinct split for the passing game here: 105th in Passing Success Rate but 24th in Passing Explosiveness. That is part and parcel of the offense: 9th in Explosiveness but 101st in Success Rate.
Old Dominion’s new offense can not and will not drive the ball down the field on you but can create big plays quickly. The Monarchs have the prototypical extreme wideout splits you see from the veer and shoot, and they run at the 11th-fastest rate in the country.
The defense is respectable for a Group of Five team, ranking 69th in EPA allowed. Linebacker Jason Henderson is a star and one of the best individual defenders in the country. Their defense serves as a counterpoint for their offense, as they allow efficiency (102nd in Success Rate allowed) but erase big plays, ranking fifth in Explosiveness allowed.
They are also an excellent red zone defense, ranking 26th in Points per Opportunity allowed.
Liberty Flames
Jamey Chadwell arrived in Lynchburg this offseason and has worked wonders.
His funky offensive system has fanned the Flames to new heights, as they sit at 9-0, ranked in the AP poll, and are a virtual lock for the CUSA championship.
Quarterback Kaidon Salter has been the breakout star, like Grayson McCall at Coastal Carolina under Chadwell’s tutelage. The former four-star recruit has thrown for 1,959 yards with 23 touchdowns to only three interceptions. He has also contributed 664 yards on the ground, and his 83.0 QBR is good for seventh among FBS quarterbacks.
Quinton Cooley is a workhorse back, on the verge of eclipsing 1,000 yards for the season.
The offense is not very explosive, only ranking 94th nationally in big plays, but they're sixth in Success Rate.
And once they reach the red zone, it will be a matchup of strength-on-strength: Old Dominion’s bend-but-don’t-break defense against a Liberty offense that is top-40 in Finishing Drives.
The defense ranks 108th in EPA allowed. Their Success Rate measures are good, but they struggle with Explosivness allowed, ranking 91st nationally.
Old Dominion vs Liberty
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Old Dominion and Liberty match up statistically:
Old Dominion Offense vs. Liberty Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 68 | 75 | |
| Line Yards | 39 | 66 | |
| Pass Success | 105 | 53 | |
| Havoc | 131 | 7 | |
| Finishing Drives | 122 | 45 | |
| Quality Drives | 117 | 45 | |
Liberty Offense vs. Old Dominion Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 5 | 53 | |
| Line Yards | 2 | 32 | |
| Pass Success | 16 | 91 | |
| Havoc | 11 | 77 | |
| Finishing Drives | 36 | 26 | |
| Quality Drives | 22 | 61 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 16 | 46 |
| PFF Coverage | 73 | 23 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 42 | 118 |
| Middle 8 | 91 | 72 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.6 (13) | 29.0 (100) |
| Rush Rate | 58.4% (71) | 69.2% (4) |
Old Dominion vs Liberty
Betting Pick & Prediction
Liberty has been unstoppable in conference play.
The Flames step outside their comfort zone to meet an Old Dominion team that gets better each week with its new offense. The Monarch's extreme formations and pace have been testing defenses and keeping games close against defenses comparable to Liberty.
Both teams have matchup advantages: Old Dominion will be able to create big plays, and Liberty will be able to move the ball down the field steadily.
Old Dominion has seen the Jamey Chadwell offense before. Last year, they slowed down McCall and company, holding them to only 21 points on the teal turf. Decker’s offense is a new look for the Liberty defense.
The Monarchs might have one of the lowest floors in FBS – they haven’t played poorly since September, but they did have a few righteous stinkers, so I am a bit nervous to back them because a bad day could turn nightmarish.
But I think this team is gaining confidence, which shows in its recent performances. I believe the Monarchs will hang close with Liberty, keeping things in range with big plays and a solid defense.
And at 13.5, the backdoor will always be open. I’ll take the Monarchs at anything over 13.
Pick: Old Dominion +13.5
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