Oregon vs North Carolina Odds
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 76 -110o / -110u | -475 |
| North Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 76 -110o / -110u | +380 |
There may not be a bowl more aptly named than the Holiday Bowl. As we all prepare to enjoy this matchup between the holidays, the Oregon Ducks and the North Carolina Tar Heels are set to give us one of the season's most exciting games.
Off the top, this game is littered with opt-outs, and that may only accentuate the disparities between these two teams, as a ton of points are expected here. Although, there is one side that should do the majority of the scoring here.
So, how what's the best way to play this expected barnburner? Let's take a deep dive and find out.
Oregon Ducks
When looking at the long list of opt-outs for the Ducks, one name that isn't included is Bo Nix. Instead, the quarterback announced he would play in this game and will return to Oregon next season.
Nix's participation in this game is a huge factor, as this may be the best matchup he's had all season. The UNC defense struggled mightily to stop the passing game this year.
The Tar Heels finished 108th in completion percentage allowed and 109th in yards per pass allowed. Their line didn't help matters either, as they finished 103rd in sack rate.
Starting cornerbacks Tony Grimes and Storm Duck entered the transfer portal, as did starting safety Cam'Ron Kelly.
That defense will match up against an Oregon passing attack that finished first in completion percentage, eighth in yards per pass and first in sack rate allowed.
Let's not forget that the Ducks can run the ball too. Bucky Irving, Noah Whittington and Nix combined to average 6.1 yards per carry this season. Unfortunately for North Carolina, it wasn't much better against the run, finishing 95th in yards per rush allowed.
No matter what it calls, Oregon should have very few issues moving the ball in this contest.
North Carolina Tar Heels
While the Tar Heels defense did them no favors this year, they still won games because they were an offensive juggernaut in their own right.
Freshman quarterback Drake Maye burst onto the scene and finished third in the country in passing yards and sixth in passing touchdowns.
Just like his counterpart in this matchup, he'll have an excellent matchup.
The Ducks finished 117th in opponent completion percentage allowed and 78th in yards per pass allowed. Maye will also have ample time to throw, as Oregon ranks 129th in sack rate.
However, he will be missing his top target in wide receiver Josh Downs. Downs finished with 94 receptions and is one of the best receivers in the country. That loss is minimized, though, as Oregon's top cornerback is also out of this game.
So, while the Tar Heels may be able to move the ball in this matchup, expectations have to be tempered as the rest of the receiving corps works to step up without Downs.
Oregon vs North Carolina Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon and North Carolina match up statistically:
Oregon Offense vs. North Carolina Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 2 | 115 | |
| Line Yards | 4 | 110 | |
| Pass Success | 7 | 116 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 4 | 56 | |
| Havoc | 5 | 128 | |
| Finishing Drives | 21 | 128 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
North Carolina Offense vs. Oregon Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 46 | 84 | |
| Line Yards | 89 | 72 | |
| Pass Success | 17 | 111 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 62 | 88 | |
| Havoc | 68 | 94 | |
| Finishing Drives | 17 | 110 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 29 | 17 |
| PFF Coverage | 39 | 101 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 46 | 35 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.0 (50) | 24.0 (24) |
| Rush Rate | 54.2% (64) | 49.1% (95) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus, and SportSource Analytics.
Oregon vs North Carolina Betting Pick
There's little question that this game will be a high-scoring affair, especially with the total creeping into the mid-70s. However, that expectation has also enhanced Oregon's expectations.
Nix and the Ducks offense should tear through this North Carolina defense that was already bad to begin with and will be even more hampered due to opt-outs.
I'm counting on Oregon to get a few of stops in this matchup and win by multiple scores.
Pick: Oregon -12.5 (Play to 13.5) |
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