Oregon Ducks vs Washington Huskies Odds
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
+3 -105 | 67.5 -105o / -115u | +130 |
| Washington Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
-3 -115 | 67.5 -105o / -115u | -155 |
The Oregon Ducks head to Seattle on Saturday for a top-10 clash with a conference rival in the Washington Huskies.
After 114 meetings dating back to 1900, there may not be a bigger rivalry in the Pacific Northwest in any sport than this matchup. Both teams enter Week 7 ranked in the top 10 with hopes of winning the last Pac-12 Championship.
The Huskies lead the all-time series, 61-48-5, but recent history has been all Ducks. Oregon has won 15 of the last 18 editions of this game, but new Huskies head coach Kalen DeBoer is 1-0 in this series against second-year Ducks head coach Dan Lanning.
Thankfully, the rivalry will continue in the Big Ten, but the 2023 version may be the best in series history. Both Oregon and Washington enter the game undefeated off bye weeks with quarterbacks high on the Heisman board.
Each team has had a game with a one-possession victory. Oregon survived a Week 2 trip to Texas Tech, while Washington struggled to put Arizona away in Week 5.
The stakes could not be higher, as the winning team will have the inside track to the College Football Playoff with a quarterback who may emerge as the Heisman favorite.
Oregon Ducks
The 2023 season has been nearly flawless for the Ducks, as they have already blasted two Pac-12 opponents in Stanford and Colorado.
However, the Ducks were challenged in Lubbock, needing 20 points in the fourth quarter to overcome a deficit against the Red Raiders. The defense was shredded on the ground in that game allowing 7.7 yards per play and four explosive runs.
Thanks to four offensive turnovers by Texas Tech, Oregon escaped with a victory in one of the biggest bad beats of the season.
PICK 6 TO TOP IT OFF FOR THE DUCKS! 😱 🦆 @oregonfootballpic.twitter.com/1XgoNCGYWa
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 10, 2023
Oregon has a poor strength of schedule at 106th, giving immediate attention to a poor ranking of 56th in Defensive Line Yards. Thankfully for Oregon, the Huskies run the ball on just 40% of offensive snaps, making the focus of this game on the secondary for the Ducks.
PFF grades Oregon's back seven as the 15th-best coverage unit in college football. Lanning runs quarters and cover 1 both with a high Success Rate. Both Colorado and Stanford are pass-first offenses, and each failed to generate more than six points against the Ducks.
The offense has been electric through the air and on the ground. Oregon ranks second in plays per point, trailing only USC. This is the highest-ranked offense nationally in Quality Drives, supported by an overall top rank in drives that contain two-plus first downs and exceed 50 yards.
No offense has fewer momentum killers than Oregon, with the number of fumbles, interceptions, missed field goals, fourth-down turnovers and sacks at a grand total of seven in 42 possessions.
A trio of running backs in Bucky Irving, Jordan James and Noah Whittington average more than eight yards per carry, allowing quarterback Bo Nix to rush only seven times this season.
Washington Huskies
Oregon has the highest Success Rate combination between the rush and pass than any other offense in the nation, with Washington as a close second.
Where the Huskies lack in available yards, the big play has created quick scores for quarterback Michael Penix.
The current Heisman favorite, Penix has a 16:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, going well below a career average of 2.1% in turnover-worthy plays.
The sixth-year senior has his highest average depth of target in his career at 11 yards, leading the nation in passes over 10, 20 and 30 yards.
#Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. just drops this so causally
in the bucket. Can’t throw it any better pic.twitter.com/USEvoHivTy— Devin Jackson (@RealD_Jackson) September 24, 2023
No matter the coverage, Penix has dominated opposing defenses with a group of pass-catchers who are the most explosive in college football. Averaging two yards per route run is considered explosive, and Washington touts three options who average at least 3.2 yards per route run.
Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan average at least 15 yards a catch with 11 combined touchdowns.
If there's a worry for the Huskies, defensive coordinator Chuck Morrell has not produced a unit capable of stopping the rush. Washington ranks in the bottom 20 in Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate after facing the Power 5 offenses of Arizona, California and Michigan State.
The Huskies have fallen to 85th in red-zone defense, allowing 10-of-12 scores to go for a touchdown.
Oregon vs Washington
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon and Washington match up statistically:
Oregon Offense vs Washington Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 2 | 115 | |
| Line Yards | 2 | 120 | |
| Pass Success | 5 | 25 | |
| Havoc | 5 | 115 | |
| Finishing Drives | 2 | 66 | |
| Quality Drives | 1 | 36 | |
Washington Offense vs Oregon Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 10 | 39 | |
| Line Yards | 69 | 56 | |
| Pass Success | 2 | 3 |  |
| Havoc | 30 | 22 | |
| Finishing Drives | 14 | 20 | |
| Quality Drives | 2 | 9 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 18 | 67 |
| PFF Coverage | 15 | 24 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 45 | 32 |
| Middle 8 | 3 | 7 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.6 (62) | 28.8 (101) |
| Rush Rate | 46.7% (102) | 40.3% (123) |
Oregon vs Washington
Betting Picks, Prediction
Oregon is expected to attack Washington where the Huskies have struggled most: defending the rush. Arizona posted an above-average Success Rate in standard downs and rushing attempts and won the time of possession battle by keeping Penix off the field.
The Wildcats created a methodical drive rate three times better than the national average, providing the blueprint to beat Washington.
The Ducks' elite running backs can do damage against a Washington defense that falls outside the top 100 in Success Rate, Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Nix's usage is a larger mystery for this game after logging just four designed rushing attempts this season. The super-senior quarterback posted 18 zone- and 18 gap-scheme runs last season, a contributing factor to a late-season high ankle sprain.
If Nix has his number called in rushing attempts or manages to leave the pocket for scramble yards, there will be big advantages for an elite Oregon offense.
While Nix has an average depth of target that has dipped this season, Penix has seen his number of explosives increase. Oregon's 3-3-5 defense has been fantastic at limiting explosive plays thus far, but it has not faced a powder-keg offense such as Washington.
Action Network projects this game at Washington -2 with a total of 76. There's action on both sides in the market, with Oregon taking in money at +3 and Washington getting bettors' attention at -2.5 or better.
However, the best bet in this game is on the total, specifically with Oregon.
Washington has struggled when opponents get into scoring position, ranking 66th in Defensive Finishing Drives. The Ducks will have extreme advantages moving the chains and in rush explosives against a Huskies defense that ranks 115th in Defensive Rush Expected Points.
