Florida vs Oregon State Odds
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | -305 |
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | +255 |
The Las Vegas Bowl has been in operation since 1992, but a recent change to boot the Mountain West from the bowl's rotation has elevated the game. Now, the Pac-12 will face the Big Ten and SEC in offsetting seasons.
Florida hasn't played on the West Coast since the 2007 BCS National Championship game. Head coach Billy Napier has covered just one of the four bowl games in his career, as the "scared money don't make money" coach comes to the home of the Rebel Roller.
Oregon State continues to be a program on the rise under head coach Jonathan Smith. The former Beavers quarterback is a hot commodity on the coaching market, earning Pac-12 Coach of the Year honors.
Oregon State hasn't won nine games in a decade, bringing an elite rush unit to a conference that features a handful of pass-first offenses. There's no lack of motivation for the Beavers after losing to Utah State in last year's Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl.
Florida Gators
The Gators will get a crash course in life after Anthony Richardson, as the sophomore declared for the NFL Draft. The 2,500-yard passer also owned 26% of the rushing yards during the 2022 season.
With Jalen Kitna kicked off the team following an arrest related to child pornography, Florida will turn to Jack Miller III for his first career start.
The highly-recruited pro-style quarterback committed to Ohio State before transferring to Florida. Miller was cleared for activity a few weeks ago after suffering a thumb injury during August camp.
Jack Miller III #9
Spring Game Highlights pic.twitter.com/RCgLML354H
— Mr. Ohio (@MrOH1O) April 19, 2021
The offensive line also takes a hit with another NFL Draft departure. Action Network All-American O'Cyrus Torrence declared for the next level, so the Gators lose a key piece of a unit that finished top-30 in pass blocking.
Napier may opt to only pass on downs that fall behind the chains, as the way to attack Oregon State comes on the ground.
Running back Montrell Johnson Jr. led all rushers with more than 800 yards, but the burner of the unit is Trevor Etienne. The younger brother of former Clemson Tiger and current Jacksonville Jaguar Travis Etienne posted a top-20 national elusive rating, forcing 34 missed tackles in just 110 rushing attempts.
While the passing game is suspect for the offense, the same can be said for the defense. The Gators slightly improved from the Dan Mullen-Todd Grantham teams, slipping just inside the top 100 in Success Rate and Havoc.
Opponents are still cashing in on scoring attempts, as Florida has one of the highest points per attempt allowed in FBS.
The great news for Florida is leading pressure man Gervon Dexter will continue to work from the interior of the line. Top tackler Ventrell Miller did opt out of the bowl for the NFL Draft, leaving a depleted depth chart at linebacker.
Oregon State Beavers
Despite persistent rumors of hitting the transfer portal, freshman running back Damien Martinez is set to blaze a trail in Allegiant Stadium.
Oregon State was set at running back entering the season with Deshaun Fenwick and Jamious Griffin, but Martinez took over starting duties in Week 10. The freshman averages 3.5 yards after contact, averaging a double-digit gain once every five carries.
2022 #Pac12FB Freshman Offensive Player of the Year, presented by @Nextiva: Damien Martinez 🦫
Full release ➡️ https://t.co/PRdgEovUpW#GoBeavs | @BeaverFootballpic.twitter.com/YT80u77sqP
— Pac-12 Conference (@pac12) December 6, 2022
Quarterback Ben Gulbranson took over starting duties in Week 6 against Stanford, serving as a caretaker to the position. The freshman was stable in the turnover-worthy play department until a collapse against Oregon.
Two interceptions and just 60 yards of passing contributed to a Beaver loss when the Ducks turned up the pressure. Gulbranson takes an adjusted completion percentage dip of 20% when working a crowded pocket.
Defensive coordinator Trent Bray proved to be successful in elevating a woeful unit, earning a new contract.
Oregon State doesn't produce any kind of pass rush but has been a top-25 unit against the pass. The Beavers finished top-30 in negating explosive plays in early downs, boosting their overall Success Rate.
Opponents that have gotten into scoring position have been met with a top-20 defense in terms of Finishing Drives.
Linebacker Omar Speights leads the team in tackles while contributing 14 pressures on the season.
Florida vs Oregon State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida and Oregon State match up statistically:
Oregon State Offense vs Florida Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 12 | 96 | |
| Line Yards | 11 | 68 | |
| Pass Success | 28 | 96 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 58 | 45 | |
| Havoc | 32 | 94 | |
| Finishing Drives | 25 | 117 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off) vs Pass Rush (Def) | |||
Florida Offense vs Oregon State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 65 | 82 | |
| Line Yards | 36 | 77 | |
| Pass Success | 89 | 24 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 27 | 114 | |
| Havoc | 26 | 32 | |
| Finishing Drives | 75 | 18 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off) vs. Pass Rush (Def) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 36 | 54 |
| PFF Coverage | 25 | 91 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 117 | 56 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.7 (122) | 26.6 (70) |
| Rush Rate | 62.1% (13) | 56.1% (49) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Florida vs Oregon State Betting Pick
Napier's best playmakers on both sides of the ball opted out of the Las Vegas Bowl. The former Nick Saban assistant acknowledges most of the players in this game will be hitting the portal.
Still, there's no shortage of motivation from Florida's on-field players, as any highlight could turn into transfer portal NIL dollars.
The drop-off of Richardson to Miller has been oversold in the market. Action Network projects Oregon State as a field-goal favorite in the Las Vegas Bowl.
Once the Gators' roster took shape after the regular season, this opening line steamed into double digits. Severe buyback on Florida came once the number hit 11, with expected sharp money supporting the Gators at double digits until kick.
Richardson is arguably not worth more than a touchdown to the spread, as plenty of Florida tickets will ride on Miller's ability to convert third downs.
The Gators don't have an answer for Oregon State's rushing attack. Florida allowed nearly as many 10-yard gains as any other team in the country.
With advantages in Success Rate, third downs and Finishing Drives, the Beavers are the correct favorite.
The question in the equation is the effectiveness of Miller at quarterback for Florida. Since he doesn't have collegiate passing game film — leaving us with unanswered questions — an Oregon State team total is the play.
If Miller is hitting his targets early, a play on the live over would be added because of Napier's desire to run an uptempo offense.
