Notre Dame vs Oregon State Odds
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 40.5 -105o / -115u | -200 |
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 40.5 -105o / -115u | +165 |
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Oregon State Beavers meet in El Paso on Friday afternoon to close out their seasons in the Sun Bowl.
Oregon State is going through a pretty big transition period, as head coach Jonathan Smith has left for Michigan State, while many players have opted out, including starting quarterback DJ Uiagalelei.
Former defensive coordinator Trent Bray has been named the new head coach, but he will not be with the team for the bowl game. Passing game coordinator Kefense Hynson will be the interim head coach, while cornerbacks coach Anthony Perkins will serve as the interim defensive coordinator.
Notre Dame had a solid season but fell short of its ultimate goal of the College Football Playoff, going 9-3 with losses to Louisville, Ohio State and Clemson.
The Irish are also going through a transition period with their roster with a lot of starters — especially on offense — opting out of this game.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Notre Dame offense was one of the most efficient in the country this season. But, like most teams during bowl season, it's going to be severely limited due to opt-outs.
Starting quarterback Sam Hartman isn't going to play, and offensive coordinator Gerad Parker has left to become the head coach at Troy.
It's a complete mess in terms of who's actually going to play on offense for Notre Dame. Eleven of its top 12 players in terms of snap count are out for this game.
Steve Angeli is in line to start at quarterback, but he has taken only seven snaps this season. He's not going to have very many people to throw to, either, because all three of Notre Dame's top receiver targets are in the transfer portal.
So, with basically nobody available, I'm not sure how the Irish move the ball effectively in this game.
Some players are missing on the defensive side of the ball as well with starting cornerbacks Cam Hart and Thomas Harper opting out, along with linebacker Marist Liufau.
However, star safety Xavier Watts is going to play alongside defensive tackle Howard Cross. That's big for a good Notre Dame defense that will now have most of its unit available.
The Irish finished the year sixth in both Success Rate and EPA/Play Allowed. They're likely going to defend the run quite often in this game, which is perfectly fine because they were top-20 in the country in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and Defensive Line Yards.
Even with their two starting cornerbacks out for this game, they're going to be facing a third-string quarterback who was very ineffective a season ago.
Oregon State Beavers
Uiagalelei and backup quarterback Aidan Chiles are both in the transfer portal, which means Ben Gulbranson will start under center.
Gulbranson has attempted only one pass this season but did start eight games in 2022.
He was largely ineffective in a rush-heavy offense. He owned a PFF passing grade of 62.8, averaged 7.4 yards per attempt and had only six big-time throws compared to seven turnover-worthy plays.
Oregon State is also going to be pretty limited in the run game as well. Damien Martinez was arrested, and despite being eligible to play, he won't take the field for the bowl game.
Among those at Oregon State's practice in El Paso today were running back Damien Martinez and left tackle Joshua Gray. Neither will play in Friday's game, but they're on hand for support.
— Nick Daschel (@nickdaschel) December 26, 2023
To make matters worse, left tackle Joshua Gray, left guard Heneli Bloomfield and right tackle Taliese Fuaga are all going to miss this game.
Oregon State's rushing attack may have ranked fourth in the country in Rushing Success Rate, but it's going to be very difficult for the Beavers to consistently run the ball without most of their starters.
In terms of starters out of the defensive side of the ball, linebacker Easton Mascarenas-Arnold, safety Akili Arnold and cornerback Jermod McCoy are all going to miss this game.
Having most of their front seven available is pretty big against Notre Dame's rushing attack. Oregon State's defensive line was really good against the run this season, ranking 25th in Defensive Line Yards and 44th in Stuff Rate, which in turn, has it ranked 35th in EPA/Rush Allowed.
The secondary was pretty average this season ranking 43rd in passing success rate allowed. Even though they are down two starters, Notre Dame's passing attack is going to be very limited, so they should be able to shut the Irish down through the air.
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Notre Dame vs Oregon State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon State and Notre Dame match up statistically:
Oregon State Offense vs Notre Dame Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 4 | 20 | |
| Line Yards | 24 | 18 | |
| Pass Success | 39 | 5 | |
| Havoc | 36 | 64 | |
| Finishing Drives | 9 | 10 |  |
| Quality Drives | 32 | 13 | |
Notre Dame Offense vs Oregon State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 10 | 76 | |
| Line Yards | 22 | 25 | |
| Pass Success | 17 | 43 | |
| Havoc | 26 | 25 | |
| Finishing Drives | 6 | 23 | |
| Quality Drives | 30 | 41 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 133 | 59 |
| PFF Coverage | 42 | 3 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 16 | 51 |
| Middle 8 | 30 | 6 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.1 (106) | 29.0 (103) |
| Rush Rate | 54.9% (49) | 55.2% (46) |
Notre Dame vs Oregon State
Prediction & Pick
I really don't see how either of these offenses are going to move the ball given how many of their key players are out for this game.
For the Irish, they have a quarterback who hasn't even taken 10 snaps this season, throwing to receivers who haven't even seen 20 targets. They'll have a backup running back carrying the ball behind an offensive line with four of the five starters gone against an Oregon State front seven that's basically at full strength.
For the Beavers, they're going to be without their starting running back and three offensive linemen for a team that relies heavily on the ground game. Gulbranson does at least have experience at quarterback, but given what we saw last season, I highly doubt he's going to be effective in this game.
With both offenses being incredibly limited and both defenses having most of their production available, I like the value on under 41.5 points.
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Pick: Under 41.5
