San Diego State vs Oregon State Odds
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+24.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +1200 |
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-24.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -3000 |
In a Saturday afternoon kickoff on FS1, No. 16 Oregon State hosts San Diego State at Reser Stadium for a true West Coast showdown.
The Beavers are looking to continue their perfect start to the season after commanding wins over San Jose State and UC Davis.
Meanwhile, the Aztecs enter the game with a pair of victories over Ohio and Idaho State before losing at No. 24 UCLA a week ago.
This is an old-school matchup between teams that love to run the football, which gives a clear advantage to the team with better talent and quarterback play.
San Diego State Aztecs
When head coach Brady Hoke looked at his nonconference slate before the season, he would have been satisfied with two wins, with a third over one of the Pac-12 foes being a bonus.
SDSU already has those victories in the bag. However, there are some issues to clean up before starting conference play next week.
The key issues are again on the offensive side of the ball, headlined by quarterback Jalen Mayden’s struggles. The former defensive back has completed only 59.5% of his passes for 148.3 yards per game.
On defense, Hoke’s team has done enough to overcome the poor play on offense, ranking in the top 60 nationally in Finishing Drives (53rd) and Havoc (59th).
The question remains as to whether this is due to facing poor opponents or the Aztecs still having a stout defense. After all, this was the same team that gave up 360 yards and 28 points in the first half to UCLA last week.
Oregon State Beavers
After three losing seasons to start his tenure at the school, Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith has turned this Beavers program into a Pac-12 contender.
Yes, they've have had a pretty soft schedule so far, but they've been dominant in those victories.
Smith’s offense, led by Clemson transfer quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, ranks in the top 10 in multiple offensive categories, including Rush Success (fifth), Havoc Allowed (first) and Finishing Drives (eighth).
Meanwhile, Oregon State has been equally dominant on defense, entering this game in the top 25 in Line Yards (second), Havoc Created (third), Pass Success (17th) and Quality Drives Allowed (18th).
Once you add in the fact SP+ also grades the Beavers’ special teams unit as the sixth-best in the country, there's a lot to be excited about in Corvallis.
San Diego State vs Oregon State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how San Diego State and Oregon State match up statistically:
San Diego State Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 56 | 54 |  |
| Line Yards | 57 | 2 | |
| Pass Success | 81 | 17 | |
| Havoc | 110 | 3 | |
| Finishing Drives | 91 | 43 | |
| Quality Drives | 119 | 18 | |
Oregon State Offense vs. San Diego State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 5 | 132 | |
| Line Yards | 19 | 125 | |
| Pass Success | 22 | 74 | |
| Havoc | 1 | 59 | |
| Finishing Drives | 8 | 53 | |
| Quality Drives | 24 | 81 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 122 | 47 |
| PFF Coverage | 67 | 23 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 35 | 6 |
| Middle 8 | 88 | 19 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.5 (105) | 30.3 (118) |
| Rush Rate | 56.4% (32) | 57.1% (34) |
San Diego State vs Oregon State
Betting Pick & Prediction
As you see in the matchup matrix above, this is a total mismatch in just about every department. However, I don’t want to lay this many points in a low-scoring affair, especially with a trip to Washington State on deck for Oregon State.
So, my best bet is to back the Beavers at -14 or better on the first-half spread, which is available at -13.5 (-122) at FanDuel.
In the opening halves of games this season, OSU has outscored its opponents, 59-3, and covered this same spread in both contests. I wouldn’t take too much from the win over FCS foe UC Davis, but San Jose State is a team I would likely power-rate higher than SDSU.
On the flip side, the Aztecs got their first test in Week 2, where UCLA held an 18-point advantage at Snapdragon Stadium. I just don’t see that getting any better away from home here.
Beyond the offensive struggles, there's also one major red flag on defense for San Diego State in this contest. Hoke’s team ranks 132nd in Rush Success and 125th in Line Yards, which is not what you want going up against this potent Beaver rushing attack.
Total-wise, I don't believe this should reach the key number of 51, as these teams rank outside the top 100 in seconds per play and run the ball over 56% of the time.
Give me the home to get off to a fast start in this one.
