Eastern Michigan vs South Alabama Odds
| Eastern Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+17.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | +575 |
| South Alabama Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-17.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | -900 |
Welcome to the 68 Ventures Bowl between South Alabama and Eastern Michigan.
This game will be played in Mobile, Alabama, at Hancock Whitney Stadium, which is exactly where the Jaguars play their home games.
You would think that would be a massive advantage for the Jaguars, but there's a lot of uncertainty for both of these offenses, and we may end up seeing completely different schemes from both.
There's a lot of impactful transfer news that we need to break down, so let's jump in.
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Even with starting quarterback Austin Smith, Eastern Michigan's offense was an absolute train wreck this season, and the defense wasn't much better. Now, the Eagles will have to play a road bowl game as heavy underdogs.
Usually, a 6-6 team would be happy to participate in a bowl game, especially if that team was projected to have a losing record before the season started. But I think there are legitimate concerns regarding motivation for the Eagles in this game.
Motivation is a massive part of the handicap when it comes to bowl season, so we'll be able to tell if Eastern Michigan cares about this game right away.
I also have no idea where the offense is going to come from, so the Eagles will have to hope they break a few lucky explosive plays.
As bad as this defense was, it finished 40th in Defensive Finishing Drives, which means a lot of opponents would stall once they passed the 40-yard line. For whatever reason, this defense stiffens up as the field gets shorter.
The Eagles also rank 16th in tackling, according to PFF, so they should be able to limit explosive plays on the ground.
South Alabama Jaguars
This would be a slam-dunk spot to smash the Jaguars, but their transfer and injury news could have a significant impact on this game.
Most notably, the Jaguars could potentially be without starting quarterback Carter Bradley. Bradley was inconsistent at times, but he was clearly the best signal-caller on the team.
The Jaguars will also be without starting tailback La'Damian Webb because of a toe injury, as well as leading WR Caullin Lacy, who entered the transfer portal.
It might be difficult for South Alabama to cover a large number without these pieces. Throughout the season, this offense ranked 33rd in Passing Success Rate, which is key against an Eastern Michigan defense that boasts a strong secondary.
Even if Bradley suits up, the game plan for the Jaguars shouldn't change too much. They're 34th in Offensive Line Yards, and despite not boasting the strongest ground game, I'd expect them to get a heavy push up front against this porous Eagles run defense.
Eastern Michigan has been destroyed in the trenches, so I envision a busy afternoon for South Alabama running backs Braylon McReynolds and Kentrel Bullock.
Whichever backup quarterback suits up for Eastern Michigan, there's going to be a lot of rushing attempts for the Eagles, which plays right into the hands of this Jaguars defense. South Alabama comes in at 26th in Defensive Rush Success Rate and 31st in Line Yards.
It may look ugly at times on offense if Bradley is out, but I expect South Alabama to control the clock and move the chains on the ground.
The question is if that will be enough to cover such a large number.
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Eastern Michigan vs South Alabama
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how South Alabama and Eastern Michigan match up statistically:
South Alabama Offense vs Eastern Michigan Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 72 | 103 | |
| Line Yards | 34 | 121 | |
| Pass Success | 33 | 65 | |
| Havoc | 46 | 83 | |
| Finishing Drives | 18 | 40 | |
| Quality Drives | 39 | 56 | |
Eastern Michigan Offense vs South Alabama Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 103 | 26 | |
| Line Yards | 73 | 31 | |
| Pass Success | 120 | 100 | |
| Havoc | 122 | 91 | |
| Finishing Drives | 79 | 22 | |
| Quality Drives | 121 | 28 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 111 | 16 |
| PFF Coverage | 89 | 79 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 43 | 24 |
| Middle 8 | 41 | 71 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.7 (60) | 28.8 (101) |
| Rush Rate | 52.4% (78) | 54.8% (70) |
Eastern Michigan vs South Alabama
Pick, Prediction
If the spread was below 14, I'd be interested in backing South Alabama. The Jaguars will definitely have the motivation edge and a home-field advantage.
However, 17 points is a bit too high, so I feel more confident in taking the under.
Due to the uncertainty of the Jaguars' quarterback situation, I expect them to rely heavily on their ground attack. The Eagles are atrocious against the run, but they do a decent job of limiting explosive plays.
I struggle to see how the Eagles are going to put up points in this game, especially without Smith under center. They'll be punting early and often, which should help our case considering they have a strong special teams unit.
This is a slam-dunk under, but be sure to grab this number before it continues to dip.
Pick: Under 45
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