The Baylor Bears (4-4, 2-3 Big 12) and TCU Horned Frogs (5-3, 3-2) meet for an in-state battle in the Big 12 on Saturday night at McLane Stadium. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
The Bears have won their past 2 games to improve to 4-4 on the season. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have victories in 3 of their past 4 to move to 5-3 overall and 3-3 in conference play.
These programs are separated by just 86 miles along I-35, and with bowl eligibility in range for both teams, they'll be pushing for a huge win in conference play.
Baylor comes into the game as a -3 home favorite with an over/under of 64.5.
So, let’s get to my TCU vs Baylor predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 2.
TCU vs Baylor Odds
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -120 | 63.5 -110 / -110 | +130 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -102 | 63.5 -110 / -110 | -156 |
- TCU vs Baylor Point Spread: Baylor -3.5
- TCU vs Baylor Over/Under: 63.5 Total Points
- TCU vs Baylor Moneyline: TCU ML +130 · Baylor ML -156
TCU vs Baylor Picks and Predictions
Prediction
My Baylor vs TCU best bet is on the Bears to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Moneyline
While my top bet is on the Bears, I don't see value in betting them on the moneyline. Instead, I'll lay the three points at home.
Against the Spread
TCU vs. Baylor Pick: Baylor -3
Over/Under
I'm passing on Saturday's over/under.
TCU Horned Frogs vs Baylor Bears College Football Preview
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview: Hoover Leading Offense
It feels like a distant memory to remember TCU playing for the National Championship under Sonny Dykes. The coach is still in place, and the philosophy is still there to get the Horned Frogs back to contending for championships.
One thing that will help is the fact that TCU boasts a strong quarterback in Josh Hoover. He's ranked fifth in the country in passing yards and tied for fifth with 37 completions of at least 20 yards.
Sadly for the Frogs, his streak of nine consecutive games with at least 20 completions and two touchdown passes was snapped at Utah. It was the longest by a Big 12 quarterback since Oklahoma State’s Brandon Weeden from 2010-11.
The main beneficiary of Hoover’s passes has been receiver Jack Bech, who ranks in the top 15 nationally in receiving yards and touchdown catches. He’ll be the key target here.
Baylor Bears Betting Preview: Big Spot for Aranda
On top of it being homecoming, this is the first "black out" game for Baylor since 2016, and the Bears are honoring their 2013 and 2014 conference championship teams.
With so much focus on this one, it could be a huge contest for head coach Dave Aranda's future at the university. Yes, he did lead the Bears to the 2022 Big 12 Championship, but he followed that up with a 6-7 season and a 3-9 campaign last year.
Aranda is known for his defense, but it has been Baylor’s offense that led to the past two wins. It started with 59 points in the triumph over Texas Tech, which was followed up by 343 rushing yards in a 38-28 victory over Oklahoma State.
A key performer on the unit has been quarterback Sawyer Robertson. The former Mississippi State signal-caller leads the Big 12 and ranks eighth nationally in quarterback rating.
Robertson is also in the top 15 in the FBS in touchdown passes, with his primary targeting being Josh Cameron. The duo needs another big game here to make it three wins in a row.
Baylor vs TCU Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Baylor and TCU match up statistically:
TCU Offense vs. Baylor Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 59 | 7 | |
| Line Yards | 97 | 38 | |
| Pass Success | 17 | 75 | |
| Havoc | 60 | 81 | |
| Finishing Drives | 31 | 89 | |
| Quality Drives | 112 | 74 | |
Baylor Offense vs. TCU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 87 | 61 | |
| Line Yards | 59 | 91 | |
| Pass Success | 41 | 35 | |
| Havoc | 29 | 108 | |
| Finishing Drives | 56 | 85 | |
| Quality Drives | 94 | 85 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 11 | 51 |
| PFF Coverage | 18 | 125 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 127 | 56 |
| Middle 8 | 68 | 84 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.2 (17) | 23.9 (14) |
| Rush Rate | 43% (121) | 54% (53) |
How to Make College Football Picks For My TCU vs Baylor Prediction
Throughout the season, TCU has a team that I've been low on compared to the market. That has led me to fade the Horned Frogs on multiple occasions, and I will be doing so again here.
With that said, my best bet is to take Baylor on the spread of -3, which I would try to get before it gets through the key number of four. My final buy price would be -5.5.
Ultimately, I think the Bears’ recent performances aren't being priced in enough, and there are a couple of factors that keep me betting against the Horned Frogs.
For starters, TCU ranks 132nd out of 134 teams in giveaways per game at 2.6. This is the same team that is 131st in average turnover margin.
Yes, the Horned Frogs’ defense looks solid on paper, but I think this team has benefited from playing poor offensive teams such as Stanford, LIU, Kansas, Houston and Utah.
When TCU has stepped up in competition, this defense has given up yards and points. Texas Tech, UCF and SMU all combined to score 135 points against the Frogs, with all three topping the 30-point mark.
Another huge advantage for Baylor will come on special teams. The Bears rank 56th nationally, while TCU is outside the top 120.
With the way Robertson and the offense have been playing, I like Baylor to get a huge win and cover at home.
Pick: Baylor -3 (Play to -5.5)
TCU vs Baylor Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | McLane Stadium, Waco, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 2 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
TCU meets Baylor on Saturday in Waco, Texas, at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Baylor vs TCU Betting Trends
- 75% of bets and 67% of the money are on TCU to cover the spread
- 92% of bets and 56% of the money on the moneyline are on Baylor to win outright
- 88% of bets and 47% of the money are on the under
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Baylor vs TCU Weather
