Rivalry matchups in non-conference play are always fun, and the Iron Skillet game is no different.
The TCU Horned Frogs (2-1) take on the SMU Mustangs (2-1) at 5 p.m. ET on The CW on Saturday, September 21.
The Horned Frogs are coming off of a disappointing defeat at the hands of UCF, 35-34. Meanwhile, the Mustangs lost a low-scoring affair against BYU, 18-15.
TCU is the favorite at -3 on the spread while the over/under comes in at 58.5. The Frogs are also -148 on the moneyline at the time of writing.
These teams certainly don't care for each other and will badly want to avoid suffering a second loss in the young season. That said, let's get to my TCU vs SMU prediction.
TCU vs SMU Odds, Pick, Spread, Lines
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -112 | 59 -110 / -110 | -125 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -108 | 59 -110 / -110 | +105 |
- Spread: TCU -2 (-112) · SMU +2 (-108)
- Total: Over/Under 59
- Moneyline: TCU -125 · SMU +105
- Pick: TCU -2.5
TCU vs SMU Preview
TCU Football
This is a pretty pivotal year for Sonny Dykes and TCU.
The 2022 season was a dream year for the Frogs that resulted in a trip to the national title game. In 2023, TCU won five games and missed the postseason altogether.
Which was the outlier and which was more of the norm? This year will go a long way toward telling us.
Through three quarters last Saturday, the 2024 season was off to a very good start. The Frogs handled business in Palo Alto in Week 1 and were in complete control of their first Big 12 game against a UCF team many picked as a darkhorse to win the Big 12.
However, TCU let that lead slip away in the final minutes, ultimately falling to the Knights 35-34.
Teams often respond in one of two ways to a heartbreaking loss like that. They either come out the next week feeling sorry for themselves and let one loss turn into two, or they flush it, turn the page and bounce back.
Given the early nature of the season, I expect the Frogs to view this game against a crosstown rival as a way to quickly get over that loss, and I think we'll see a strong performance in Dallas.
Quarterback Josh Hoover has been phenomenal through three games. Last week, he threw for over 400 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions. He also completed over 65% of his 52 attempts.
As elite as Hoover has been, the Frogs need to find a little bit more balance in their offense. They couldn't run the ball at all late last week, which resulted in UCF getting the ball back quickly enough to go on a game-winning drive.
On the other side of the ball, TCU must be better against the run, where it ranks outside the top 100 in both Defensive Rush Success and Line Yards. The SMU offense has struggled through the air, so taking away Brashard Smith on the ground would go a long way in this one.
SMU Football
SMU entered 2024 with a lot of buzz and plenty of expectations. The Mustangs joined the ACC in the offseason and a move back to a power conference had the fanbase reenergized.
Many national pundits picked SMU as a sleeper team to contend for the ACC title.
However, it hasn't been a great start. The Mustangs were lucky to escape the opener at Nevada, and then, in their most recent outing, lost at home to BYU in a game in which they only scored 15 points.
Quarterback controversy followed as Kevin Jennings has seemingly taken over for Preston Stone.
The Mustangs were on bye last week, so they've had 15 days to prepare for the Frogs.
Typically, extra prep is a good thing. However, it's only Week 4, so there may be a little rust after such a long layoff.
SMU's defense has been okay, ranking inside the top 45 in both Defensive Pass and Rush Success.
The problem is that SMU hasn't exactly faced the most explosive of offenses. Trying to contain Hoover and the TCU passing attack is a different challenge, and the secondary will be put to the test.
Offensively, SMU hasn't been able to do much of anything. The Mustangs are struggling to get a push up front, which is resulting in plenty of 2nd- and 3rd-and-long situations.
Additionally, SMU ranks 90th in Havoc as turnovers and negative plays are killing drives.
For the Mustangs to go toe to toe with their crosstown rivals on Saturday afternoon, the offense must take better care of the football and find a rhythm.
TCU vs SMU
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how TCU and SMU match up statistically:
TCU Offense vs. SMU Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 45 | 35 | |
| Line Yards | 90 | 30 | |
| Pass Success | 19 | 41 | |
| Havoc | 22 | 18 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 71 | 41 | |
| Quality Drives | 58 | 33 | |
SMU Offense vs. TCU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 61 | 102 | |
| Line Yards | 55 | 105 | |
| Pass Success | 84 | 75 | |
| Havoc | 90 | 67 | |
| Finishing Drives | 66 | 37 | |
| Quality Drives | 75 | 61 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 45 | 61 |
| PFF Coverage | 55 | 37 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 76 | 67 |
| Middle 8 | 24 | 90 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.5 (19) | 24.2 (16) |
| Rush Rate | 41% (127) | 57% (42) |
TCU vs SMU Prediction
I've been underwhelmed by what I've seen from SMU.
The Mustangs have struggled on both sides of the ball and I think TCU is the better team across the board. Sometimes, the handicap can be that simple.
Yes, this is an SMU home game, but there will be plenty of purple in the stands given the close proximity between these rivals.
Look for Hoover to have another big day through the air, and the Mustangs won't have the offense to keep pace. Go Frogs.
Pick: TCU -2.5 (Play to -3 or ML)
How to Watch TCU vs SMU Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Gerald J. Ford Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 5 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | The CW |
TCU vs SMU Betting Trends
- TCU is 0-3 against the spread in its first three games of the season.
- The total has gone over two of TCU's three games.
- SMU is 1-2 ATS in its three games this season.
- The total has gone over in one of SMU's three games.
TCU vs SMU Weather
