Tennessee vs Alabama Odds
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -105 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +260 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -115 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
A highly-anticipated SEC matchup takes place this afternoon in Tuscaloosa.
Before Alabama enters a bye week to prepare for LSU, the Tide have a revenge spot against Tennessee after they suffered a 52-49 loss in Knoxville a year ago.
Reeling from a Week 2 defeat at the hands of Texas and a hideous offensive performance against USF, the Crimson Tide have been stellar in four subsequent SEC victories.
Meanwhile, Tennessee enters Bryant-Denny Stadium after a one-possession victory over Texas A&M.
Special teams provided the boost the Volunteers needed to get past the Aggies. Tennessee has a different brand of football this season. While 2022 saw plenty of defensive inefficiencies and offense explosiveness, this version of UT has been dominant in the trench.
If Tennessee wants to stay in the hunt for an SEC title game appearance in Atlanta, all games are a must-win leading to a date with Georgia in mid-November.
Could the Week 8 game in Tuscaloosa be a preview of the SEC Championship game? Let's dive into the Tennessee vs. Alabama odds and make a prediction and pick in this college football betting preview for Saturday, Oct. 21.
Tennessee Volunteers
Joe Milton entered the season with high hopes, as plenty of casual college football consumers predicted his arm strength would be enough to make him a top pick in next year's NFL Draft.
The numbers have been anything but NFL-worthy from the sixth-year senior. Milton has an even ratio of big-time throws to turnover-worthy plays while posting his lowest average depth of target since the 2019 season.
The efficiency falls off a cliff when passing over 20 yards, as Milton has completed 8-of-35 passes with an adjusted completion percentage of 36%.
The result has been a dramatic decrease in explosive passes from Tennessee this season, as none of Milton's main targets — Squirrel White, Ramel Keyton and Bru McCoy— average more than two yards per route run.
Running back Jaylen Wright has picked up the slack in rushing attempts, creating 23 missed tackles and 13 explosive runs. The third-year running back has eclipsed 100 yards in four of his six games.
While the offense has been supported by the run game, Tennessee's defensive line jumped out on film for Nick Saban.
Good Lord, how strong is James Pearce that he was able to knock Max Johnson down with one hand? Even if Johnson was backpedaling a bit, that’s still wild. pic.twitter.com/rEuR8haVqg
— zach ragan (@zachtnt) October 16, 2023
Defensive coordinator Tim Banks is coaching his best squad yet in his third season at Tennessee. The Volunteers are top-15 in most defensive statistics, including Havoc, coverage and Success Rate.
Edge James Pearce Jr. is ranked as the top edge player in PFF's pass rush productivity rankings, racking up 32 pressures and 18 quarterback hurries.
Although the strength of opposing offenses leaves something to be desired, Tennessee ranks top-20 in defending explosives and fourth in hard stops — a metric that constitutes a complete failure by the offense.
Alabama Crimson Tide
At the conclusion of Week 3, the outlook for Alabama football was bleak. A loss to Texas and a slogging effort in a downpour against South Florida brought out the doubters.
Now, the Crimson Tide are 4-0 in SEC play and are a victory over LSU away from all but guaranteeing a trip to the SEC Championship game.
Quarterback Jalen Milroe has roared in the passing game since being benched in Week 3, throwing six touchdowns to just two interceptions in SEC play. Alabama has completely rebounded in the explosive passing department, sitting just one 40-yard completion shy of leading the nation.
JALEN MILROE ➡️ KOBE PRENTICE FOR THE 79 YARD TD! #RollTidepic.twitter.com/5GKpEsN1l8
— Video from: @TSV__1 (@TSV__1) October 14, 2023
Despite the uptick in explosives, Alabama still has issues in the offensive trench. The Crimson Tide's offensive line ranks 127th in pressures allowed, as 38% of all Alabama passing attempts have seen pressure from the opponent.
The Tide have one of the lowest Havoc Allowed ranks in college football, with the biggest problem being the 50 tackles for loss allowed. Asked if Tennessee's sack rate is a concern for the Alabama offense, Saban promptly responded, "Hell yeah."
The defense has been the saving grace for the Tide throughout the season with a top coverage grade from PFF. No team has been able to establish methodical drives against a Crimson Tide defense that ranks top-20 in both Rushing and Passing Success Rate.
Terrion Arnold and Malachi Moore have been two of the most active safeties in the SEC, both playing everywhere on the field from slot to to nickel to corner. The Tide have been phenomenal in all types of coverage, including Cover 1, Cover 3 and quarters.
Tennessee vs Alabama
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tennessee and Alabama match up statistically:
Tennessee Offense vs Alabama Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 30 | 9 | |
| Line Yards | 29 | 56 | |
| Pass Success | 62 | 20 | |
| Havoc | 9 | 33 | |
| Finishing Drives | 84 | 50 | |
| Quality Drives | 76 | 20 | |
Alabama Offense vs Tennessee Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 67 | 6 | |
| Line Yards | 42 | 7 | |
| Pass Success | 74 | 16 | |
| Havoc | 126 | 15 | |
| Finishing Drives | 44 | 18 | |
| Quality Drives | 79 | 23 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 83 | 5 |
| PFF Coverage | 3 | 4 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 64 | 8 |
| Middle 8 | 34 | 8 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.6 (3) | 28.9 (102) |
| Rush Rate | 55.7% (35) | 62.8% (28) |
Tennessee vs Alabama
Betting Predictions, Picks
Tennessee is not expected to have success on the offensive side of the football in this game.
Milton's downfield passing has been a letdown this season in terms of accuracy, and now he faces a Crimson Tide defense that excels in limiting explosives and shutting down the pass. Milton has struggled to create explosives with a mid-FBS Success Rate against Cover 3 and quarters — two packages Alabama is expected to show.
Tennessee will be able to get a push on the offensive line, as Alabama ranks 108th in Defensive Stuff Rate.
If Bama can limit explosive plays, there may not be many opportunities for methodical drives for Tennessee, as the Vols rank 76th in Quality Drives and 84th in Finishing Drives.
The bigger question comes on the other side of the ball, where Saban is aware of the Tennessee pass rush that's coming for an Alabama offensive line that struggles to protect the quarterback.
The Volunteers have not faced a quarterback with Milroe's ability, as Texas A&M, South Carolina and Florida lack a dual-threat signal-caller. Frank Harris was injured for UTSA in a game against Tennessee, which would have given a small glimpse of how a mobile quarterback could handle this pass rush.
If there's a quarterback who's comfortable getting harassed, it's Milroe. Only Payton Thorne of Auburn and Grant Wilson of Old Dominion have a better pressure-to-sack ratio than the Alabama signal-caller.
Despite the crowded pockets, Milroe has produced a 127.6 NFL grade in pressured passing attempts, which ranks second in the nation behind LSU's Jayden Daniels.
Although the Action Network projections call for Alabama to be favored by a touchdown, there are plenty of advantages for the Crimson Tide.
Tennessee will have struggles creating pass plays beyond 10 yards, ultimately putting the onus on Wright to lead the Volunteers' rushing attack.
Considering the soft schedule, the Quality Drives numbers suggest Tennessee will have issues putting points on the board if they don't get them through turnovers, special teams or quality field position.
Look for Alabama to generate explosives through busted plays, a specialty for Milroe. Whether it's via max protect or moving the pocket, Alabama will be looking for revenge through all four quarters.
