The Texas State Bobcats take on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles in Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Southern Miss is favored by 4 points on the spread with a moneyline of -165. The total is set at 65.5 points.
Here’s my Texas State vs. Southern Miss prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 15.
Texas State vs Southern Miss Prediction
- Texas State vs. Southern Miss Pick: Texas State +4 or Better
My Southern Miss vs. Texas State best bet is on the Bobcats to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Texas State vs Southern Miss Odds
| Texas St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 65.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Southern Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 65.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
- Texas State vs Southern Miss point spread: Southern Miss -4 (-110), Texas State +4 (-110)
- Texas State vs Southern Miss over/under: 65.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Texas State vs Southern Miss moneyline: Texas State +140, Southern Miss -165
Texas State vs Southern Miss Preview
Southern Miss will host Texas State in a game with massive implications for both teams in the Sun Belt East division.
Oh, wait, never mind. Scratch that. I forgot Texas State has been cursed all year and sits at 0-5 in league play.
The Bobcats deserved to lose against JMU, but take a look at their other four losses:
- By one at Arkansas State (521-398 yardage edge; missed XP followed by last-second TD)
- OT vs. Troy (574-458 yardage edge; missed game-winning field goal after blowing 21-point lead)
- Double OT vs. Marshall (558-466 yardage edge; gave up last-minute TD in regulation)
- By three vs. Louisiana (528-384 yardage edge; failed on multiple two-point attempts)
Yup, you read that all of that correctly.
Four losses have come by three or fewer or in overtime, while they've out-gained those four opponents by nearly 500 total yards (2,181-1,706). They've also been pretty unlucky in several different high-variance categories.
The offense continues to move the ball at will on opposing defenses. For the season, the Bobcats rank 15th nationally in yards per play (6.6).
However, the defense has let GJ Kinne's group down week after week, allowing opponents to average six yards per play (106th nationally). For reference, Southern Miss sits at 5.9 and 5.0, respectively.
From a net yards perspective, there's not much difference despite Texas State (which has a slight EPA per Play margin advantage) playing the much more difficult schedule.
That lines up with where I rate these Sun Belt foes, as I don't see much difference between them on a neutral field. Texas State has just been snakebit, while the opposite has held for the Golden Eagles, who sit all alone atop the division standings at 5-0.
But let's take a closer look at their conference wins:
- 38-22 over App State (out-gained 470-389; Mountaineers had three separate 1H drives of 65-plus yards end in an interception, including a 99-yard pick six that actually wasn't an interception. Then, App State lost its QB to injury for the 2H)
- 38-35 at Georgia Southern (421-395 yardage edge)
- 22-10 over Louisiana (371-356 yardage edge)
- 49-21 over a decimated ULM team (445-312 yardage edge)
- 27-21 over Arkansas State (528-456 yardage edge)
In their five Sun Belt games, they out-gained their opponents (none of which have a winning record) by 165 total yards (2,154-1,989). If we include Texas State's blowout loss to JMU, the Bobcats have out-gained their five league opponents by almost double that amount (316) — and the Golden Eagles didn't have to play the class of the league in the Dukes.
Additionally, Southern Miss had a whopping 18 takeaways (and a +12 turnover margin) in those five victories, including six last week in a one-possession win over Arkansas State. That's not sustainable.
Don't be surprised if Texas State (which has a -7 turnover margin in 2025) gets a few key bounces on Saturday in Hattiesburg.
It's worth noting that Texas State did receive suspensions following a brawl at the end of last week's game. Only two of those are really impactful, with both coming on the defensive side of the ball. However, it's not like the defense can get any worse.
Both offenses should find plenty of success throughout in a game that will likely come down to which team has the ball last. If that's indeed how it plays out, I'm happy to take the points with the road dog.
You might worry that the Bobcats have some quit in them after all of the close losses, but I haven't seen that at all. I expect them to show up here against the first-place Golden Eagles, especially since they are likely to make a bowl if they can pull off the minor upset.
Lastly, while I expect Southern Miss quarterback Braylon Braxton to play, he tweaked his knee in last week's victory and didn't look entirely right after returning to the game.
Ultimately, this is just a perfect buy-low/sell-high spot in a matchup of one unlucky team vs. a very fortunate one.
Pick: Texas State +4 or Better
