Texas Tech vs Ole Miss Odds
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -104 | 71.5 -120o / -102u | +152 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -118 | 71.5 -120o / -102u | -184 |
There are certain bowls these days that don't get the juices flowing due to opt-outs and key players entering the transfer portal. This year's Texas Bowl is not one of them.
We've got the Big 12 going up against the SEC. We've got two uptempo, high-powered offenses facing off. And we've got two head coaches with plenty of personality.
On paper, Texas Tech will be the more motivated team here given how the Red Raiders closed the year, but Ole Miss appears to also be dialed in for this one.
Texas Tech will be looking to add an eighth win to a season that has already seen it beat both Texas and Oklahoma. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is looking to end a three-game skid and finish the year off with a victory.
Where does the betting value lie in Houston? Let's discuss.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
It has been a very successful first season for Joey McGuire in Lubbock. Texas Tech finished 5-4 in Big 12 play and lost only once at Jones AT&T Stadium all year.
The Red Raiders also have a promising recruiting class coming in and a very talented young quarterback in Behren Morton. All of these factors make this a team that should have plenty of desire to finish the year off on a high note in the bowl game.
Offensively, it sounds like veteran Tyler Shough will get the start for this one. Shough was injured for much of the season but returned to end the year and absolutely lit up Oklahoma in the final game of the regular season.
Shough threw for 436 yards in that contest and also gained 44 yards on the ground.
Senior running back SaRodorick Thompson will likely be playing in his final game of an illustrious career in Lubbock, and he should be in line for a big day against an Ole Miss defense that has struggled to stop the run.
Defensively, the days of the Red Raiders giving up 50-plus points are very much a thing of the past. Tech had one of the better units in the Big 12, and it comes in with some pretty solid numbers across the board.
Limiting explosive plays from Ole Miss will be paramount in this matchup, as will the red zone, where the Red Raiders check in with a very respectable ranking of 34th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Ole Miss Rebels
It was a disappointing finish to the season for Ole Miss after sitting inside the top 10 of the polls in early November. A three-game losing streak to end the year has left a sour taste in the mouths of Hotty Toddy fans.
The Rebels were exposed down the stretch on both sides of the ball, particularly in games against LSU and Arkansas, where they were blown out and gave up 40-plus points.
Then there were the rumors of Lane Kiffin bolting for the Auburn job, which Kiffin ultimately shut down via Twitter.
All of that is to say, you wouldn't be crazy to question what the motivation level is for the Rebels in the Texas Bowl. Mississippi has not had many opt outs for this game, however, so Kiffin should have close to a full roster at his disposal.
The Rebels have had a strong rushing attack all season, led by Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans. TTU's defense was pretty good at stopping the run throughout the year, so the battle in the trenches will be worth monitoring early on in this matchup.
On the other side of the ball, there are serious concerns for the Ole Miss defense going up against a Tech offense that likes to play fast.
The Rebs rank outside the top 70 nationally in both Defensive Pass and Rush Success. This unit also sits 87th in Line Yards and 61st in Finishing Drives and doesn't really do anything all that well.
Whether it's Shough or Morton, it's hard to envision Ole Miss getting many stops in this game.
Texas Tech vs Ole Miss Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas Tech and Ole Miss match up statistically:
Texas Tech Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 54 | 74 | |
| Line Yards | 56 | 87 | |
| Pass Success | 91 | 94 |  |
| Pass Blocking** | 80 | 37 | |
| Havoc | 95 | 63 | |
| Finishing Drives | 65 | 61 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Ole Miss Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 15 | 34 | |
| Line Yards | 45 | 41 | |
| Pass Success | 35 | 22 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 81 | 48 | |
| Havoc | 84 | 72 | |
| Finishing Drives | 58 | 34 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 38 | 46 |
| PFF Coverage | 108 | 52 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 49 | 30 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.0 (5) | 20.7 (1) |
| Rush Rate | 47.4% (105) | 62.3% (11) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Texas Tech vs Ole Miss Betting Pick
McGuire continues to build momentum in Lubbock, and the Red Raiders will have plenty of motivation to end this season with another victory.
Tech has some key advantages on both sides of the ball, and it should find a way to get up and down the field at will against a pedestrian Mississippi defense.
I think the Red Raiders have a great chance of winning this game outright, so I will gladly scoop up the 3.5 in what should be one of the more fun non-NY6 bowl games.
Guns Up.
Pick: Texas Tech +3.5 |
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