Texas Tech vs. West Virginia Odds
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -115 | 54.5 -105o / -115u | -225 |
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -105 | 54.5 -105o / -115u | +180 |
Big 12 football is finally getting started, and while the conference welcomed two new programs this season, two of its more seasoned teams will get a crack at one another today.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders will head to Morgantown to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers.
The season hasn't gotten off to the best start for the Red Raiders, as they're 1-2 through their first three games. However, they may be in a great spot to right the ship.
As for the Mountaineers, they come into this matchup at 2-1 after picking up a win over Pitt last week. Their defense stepped up after starting quarterback Garrett Greene went down early, but can they rise to the occasion again?
Let's look closer and uncover the best bet for Texas Tech vs. West Virginia.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Red Raiders boast an explosive offense led by quarterback Tyler Shough.
Shough has been solid through the air, completing 61.9% of his passes with seven touchdowns and four interceptions.
And he's likely to improve on those numbers against West Virginia's secondary.
The Mountaineers' secondary hasn't looked great. They're 63rd in opponent completion percentage and 98th in yards per pass.
How are they so bad? Well, they rank 124th in coverage, according to PFF.
However, the Red Raiders' offense doesn't stop with the passing game. Tahj Brooks is averaging 7.3 yards per carry and Shough is also a rushing threat, as he's tallied 137 yards on 44 carries.
The West Virginia defensive line has been solid, but having to contain Shough is an added element that works to Texas Tech's advantage.
West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia has established itself as a rush-heavy offense and sports the fourth-highest rush rate in the country. Given the status of the Mountaineers' starting quarterback, we may see them continue to rush the ball at a heavy clip in this game.
Greene suffered an ankle injury after just two pass attempts last week, and we haven't received much of an update on his status at the time of this writing.
Given that, he should be considered doubtful.
That means the offense will be in the hands of redshirt freshman Nicco Marchiol, who didn't push the ball down field last week.
It's unlikely the playbook will be truly opened up with Marchiol at the helm.
We should expect the Red Raiders to compensate for their issues in the trenches by loading the box and forcing either Marchiol or a hampered Greene to beat them.
Texas Tech vs West Virginia
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas Tech and West Virginia match up statistically:
Texas Tech Offense vs. West Virginia Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 43 | 17 | |
| Line Yards | 20 | 4 | |
| Pass Success | 64 | 55 | |
| Havoc | 57 | 21 | |
| Finishing Drives | 63 | 59 |  |
| Quality Drives | 62 | 68 | |
West Virginia Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 55 | 53 | |
| Line Yards | 26 | 87 | |
| Pass Success | 75 | 56 | |
| Havoc | 8 | 111 | |
| Finishing Drives | 86 | 45 | |
| Quality Drives | 51 | 80 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 81 | 56 |
| PFF Coverage | 64 | 124 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 64 | 8 |
| Middle 8 | 48 | 31 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.9 (4) | 27.5 (77) |
| Rush Rate | 46.9% (113) | 66.7% (4) |
Texas Tech vs West Virginia
Betting Pick & Prediction
The market accounted for Greene's injury by moving the line up a point.
However, it has yet to hit the key number of seven, and that's where the value lies.
Texas Tech shouldn't have an issue moving the ball, as Shough will be a problem both through the air and on the ground.
As for the other side of the ball, the market hasn't correctly accounted for West Virginia's quarterback situation.
Back the Red Raiders to get the job done on the road.
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