College Football Picks for Thursday, Nov. 7
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Thursday nights are for football.
On the college football side, we'll be treated to 2 matchups: Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt and Florida Atlantic vs. East Carolina in the American.
Our college football writers broke down both Thursday night showdowns and came through with a pick and best bet for each game.
Continue reading for our Thursday college football odds and picks — and check back tomorrow for even more college football betting coverage.
Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina Pick: Offensive Explosion in Conway
By Joshua Nunn
The Appalachian State Mountaineers (4-4, 2-3 Sun Belt) travel to Conway, South Carolina, to take on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (4-4, 1-3) on Thursday, Nov. 7.
The game kicks off at 8 p.m. ET and can be seen live on ESPN.
App State has rebounded nicely in conference play after some suspect performances earlier in the conference schedule. On the other side, Coastal Carolina has seemingly lost its edge while losing its last 3 games.
That's a big reason Appalachian State enters as a slim 1.5-point favorite in the contest with an over/under set at 62.5.
So, where does the betting value lie? Let's take a look at my Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina predictions and college football picks for Thursday, Nov. 7.
App State Mountaineers
App State comes in off its best performance of the conference season: a 28-20 home win against Old Dominion last week.
The Mountaineers found themselves down double digits in the first half but used a long touchdown pass from Joey Aguilar to Dalton Stroman late in the second quarter to get back in it.
App State held ODU to just three points in the second half, as three forced turnovers were the key to swinging momentum to the Mountaineers' side.
I have been impressed with what App State has shown us over the last couple of weeks. This team was dead in the water and going nowhere, but the way it has rebounded is impressive.
The Mountaineers now have a clear path to bowl eligibility — a way to salvage this disappointing season.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Coastal Carolina, meanwhile, has faded fast after a hot 4-1 start to the season.
The Chants have been largely non-competitive on defense while surrendering over 500 yards each of the last two weeks.
Last week against Troy, the Coastal defensive front seven was shredded on the ground, as the Trojans ran for a season-high 342 yards with a 6.2 yards-per-carry average.
Troy has struggled to find a replacement at quarterback for injured starter Goose Crowder and turned to third-stringer Matthew Caldwell in this game. Caldwell completed 9-of-16 passes for 169 yards in this contest but had only performed at an average level in previous action.
This makes the Chants' inability to stop the run even more shocking given that the threat of an efficient Troy passing attack was minimal.
Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina Prediction
I'm going to bet the over in this matchup here between two bad defenses.
App State has won its last two games against Georgia State and Old Dominion despite allowing 884 total yards.
Last week against ODU, the Monarchs turned the ball over four times inside App State territory and had a fifth drive that was stopped on downs on the plus side of the field. Looking at the final score, it would seem as though the App State defense played well, but in reality, it was just the benefactor of fortunate turnover luck.
The App State defense has struggled to create Havoc over the course of the season, ranking 130th nationally. The Mountaineers had only recorded five turnovers prior to forcing four last week.
In addition to not generating pressure, App State has struggled with allowing explosive plays and getting stops. For the season, the Mountaineers are allowing 5.5 yards per carry and 8.7 yards per pass while ranking 107th in Defensive Explosiveness.
This Mountaineer defense will be the weakest that CCU has faced in Sun Belt play this season, and I can see this Chants offense having success here at home — especially considering they rank fourth nationally in Havoc Allowed and 29th in Offensive Success Rate.
The issue for Coastal during the three-game losing streak has been its leaky defense. The Chants have allowed over 500 yards in each of the last two weeks against Louisiana and Troy.
They also found themselves down 36-7 early in the third quarter on the road at JMU before the Dukes took their foot off the gas.
On the season, Coastal Carolina is allowing 428 yards and 33 points per game while surrendering 6.1 yards per play on defense. Coastal also struggles with creating pressure and negative plays, as it has recorded only 31 tackles for loss all season.
When looking at an over, I want to assess red-zone defense. App State has allowed touchdowns on 18-of-29 red-zone attempts and some kind of score on 27-of-29 attempts.
Coastal, meanwhile, has given up six points on 20-of-28 red-zone trips and some kind of points on 27-of-28.
I believe we'll see both of these offenses move the ball a ton here with plenty of red-zone opportunities. I can't trust either defense to secure stops, and as long as we avoid significant red-zone turnover misfortune, this game should go over.
Pick: Over 61.5
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Florida Atlantic vs. East Carolina Pick: Can Pirates Keep Bouncing Back?
Sometimes sports can be all about momentum. The vibes couldn’t be any more different between the FAU Owls (2-6, 0-4 AAC) and East Carolina Pirates (4-4, 2-2).
While a 3-4 start forced East Carolina to fire its head coach, the Pirates are 1-0 in the Blake Harrell era and fresh off a 56-34 win over Temple — their biggest win over an FBS opponent this season.
Meanwhile, FAU has dropped 3 straight, and head coach Tom Herman was involved in a kerfuffle after the Owls lost, 44-21, to South Florida last week.
Last year, Herman called for an onside kick at the end of a blowout win. This year, USF went for two at the end, probably because they couldn’t go for three.pic.twitter.com/5pDZFihlW0
— Brian Davis (@byBDavis) November 2, 2024
With things starting to look more bleak in Boca Raton, do the Owls have enough to avoid losing a 3rd-consecutive game by double digits?
Let's dive into my FAU vs. East Carolina predictions and college football picks for Thursday, Nov. 7.
Florida Atlantic Owls
After being expected to make a bowl this season, that’s looking more and more unrealistic with FAU in need of winning out to secure bowl eligibility.
Worse, the season could be going off the rails if Herman’s handshake histrionics are symbolic of the locker room.
The Owls are primarily a rushing team and rank fifth in the AAC with 169.8 rushing yards per game. However, they're far from efficient, as indicated by a Rush Success Rate outside the top 100.
Three different Owls have rushed the ball over 80 times this season, led by running back CJ Campbell, who has found the end zone eight times on the ground.
The trio of rushers includes quarterback Cam Fancher, who has thrown only three more passing touchdowns (6) than he has rushing touchdowns. Fancher has completed fewer than 60% of his passes this season and has twice been held to double-digit passing yards.
FAU’s defense has shown its warts in recent weeks, allowing over 300 yards in two of its last three games.
Its pass defense hasn’t been the only troubling unit, as last week South Florida rushed for 319 yards and four touchdowns against an Owl defense that has held a conference opponent below 38 points just once this year.
East Carolina Pirates
Maybe a coach firing was all the Pirates needed. With Mike Houston gone, East Carolina scored a season-high 56 points and beat an FBS opponent by at least 11 points for the first time this season.
The pass-heavy Pirates are now led by quarterback Katin Houser. In Houser's two starts since replacing the turnover-prone Jake Garcia, the former Michigan State Spartan has passed for 551 yards with an 8:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Houser's reduced turnovers are key for the Pirates' continued success, as Garcia's 12 interceptions are still a conference-high and a big reason for the team's slow start.
East Carolina’s season-high scoring effort against Temple last week saw the Pirates rush for a season-high 225 yards at 6.3 yards per clip. The 36 rush attempts were also tied for the second-most by the Pirates this season, something East Carolina may be try to replicate against a poor FAU run defense.
Interim head coach Blake Harrell was the team’s defensive coordinator, so it should come as no surprise that the man elevated to head coach also led the strongest part of the team.
East Carolina ranks top-20 nationally in both Rush Success allowed and Line Yards.
While the Pirates have excelled at slowing the run, the same can’t be said for their secondary.
East Carolina is 104th in Pass Success Rate allowed and just let Temple record its second-best passing outing of the season with 294 passing yards.
Florida Atlantic vs. East Carolina Prediction
A coach firing can be a catalyst for playing inspired football, but just how long can a team ride that wave?
It’s rarely more than a week, but even without the coach-change narrative, FAU isn’t a team that is capable of keeping things close with most teams in the top half of the AAC.
Three of FAU’s last four losses against FBS competition have all been decided by at least 14 points. The Owls have lost all four of their conference games by an average of 15.5 points.
FAU hasn’t done much passing the ball all season, and electing to run the ball plays right into East Carolina’s strength.
The Owls will be made one-dimensional on offense, and Fancher is too inconsistent to think he can string together another 300-yard passing performance like he did last week. East Carolina rides the momentum wave toward another cover.
Pick: East Carolina -7.5
