Tuesday College Football Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
It's been a beautiful stretch of bad offenses and even worse special teams, but this is where it ends. The final slate of weekday MACtion is here.
With no Wednesday games on the schedule this week, Tuesday's MACtion docket features two games: Buffalo vs. Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green.
So, let's make the most of this beautiful tradition.
Read on for our analysis of Tuesday's college football games — and hopefully we'll meet you in Green Dot City for MACtion one last time.
Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan
By Brett Pund
Western Michigan and Bowling Green face off for Tuesday night MACtion in the final week of the regular season.
The Broncos (4-7) have won two of their past three, while the Falcons (6-5) have won four of their previous five.
So, who has the edge on Tuesday night? Let's look at the Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan odds and make a pick and prediction for Tuesday night's college football matchup.
Bowling Green Falcons
In his fifth season with Bowling Green, head coach Scot Loeffler has done a great job turning this program around.
The year began with a tough nonconference schedule that included trips to Liberty, Michigan and Georgia Tech. The Falcons then faced two of the better teams in the conference in Ohio and Miami (OH) to start MAC play.
However, Bowling Green has played well down the stretch — a run that's included a four-game winning streak with wins over Buffalo, Akron, Ball State and Kent State. BGSU was also close to upsetting Toledo before falling, 32-31, last week.
If Loeffler’s team gets the victory here, it would be the program’s first winning season since it won the MAC in 2015.
One of the keys to success this year has been an opportunistic defense that has the most takeaways in the nation (25). The Falcons are the only team in the FBS to rank in the top 10 in both fumble recoveries and interceptions.
Western Michigan Broncos
Closing out his first season at Western Michigan, head coach Lance Taylor and his squad won't be going bowling. However, I'd still expect there to be plenty of motivation on Senior Night.
The Broncos are led by running back Jalen Buckley, who's just 82 yards shy of reaching the 1,000-yard mark on the ground this season. He would become the 16th player in program history to reach the milestone if he does so in the finale.
Buckley is joined on offense by wide receiver Kenneth Womack, who leads the MAC in both total receptions and receptions per game.
With the defense also improving down the stretch, Taylor should have plenty to be excited about going into Year 2.
Bowling Green vs Western Michigan
Betting Pick & Prediction
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This game is ultimately going to come down to whichever team can get consistent yards on the ground, as both teams rank in the top 50 in rush rate. I believe the metrics over the past month give a clear advantage to the visitors.
So, my best bet is to take Bowling Green on the moneyline, which I would bet to -135.
Over the past four weeks, Western Michigan has struggled to stop the run, ranking in the bottom 10 of Group of Five programs in Stuff Rate, Line Yards, Rush Success and Power Success.
That's not a recipe for success when going up against a Falcons squad that's 57th in the country offensively in Rush Success.
Meanwhile, the offensive numbers haven’t been much better for WMU. The Broncos sit in the bottom 10 in Rush PPA and rush explosiveness.
By backing the visitors, we get the team that has the better tackling and coverage grades, per Pro Football Focus, and has the edge in Finishing Drives on both sides of the ball.
I believe Bowling Green has enough to pick up its seventh win of the season.
Pick: Bowling Green ML -120 (Play to -135)
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Eastern Michigan vs. Buffalo
By Brett Pund
Eastern Michigan and Buffalo meet at UB Stadium on Tuesday night to close out the regular season with some MACtion.
The 3-8 Bulls won't be bowling this season, but the Eagles (5-6) can secure bowl eligibility with a win.
All of the motivation seems to be on one side, but I don’t expect this to be easy for EMU. Here's a look at my Eastern Michigan vs. Buffalo prediction.
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Head coach Chris Creighton's Eagles have lost three of their past four during an end-of-season struggle. However, a win would still give EMU bowl eligibility in its fifth consecutive season for the first time in school history.
The program has had great success in midweek MACtion games under Creighton. Excluding the 2020 COVID-19 season, when there were no weekday contests, Eastern Michigan is 12-6 in midweek conference games.
If the Eagles want to add another victory, they'll need another strong performance from Samson Evans, who racked up three rushing touchdowns last week against Akron. Those three touchdowns brought Evans' season total to 11, making him the first player in program history to rush for 10-plus scores in three different seasons.
On the defensive side of the ball, Chase Kline and Joe Sparacio have combined for 258 tackles, which is 28.7% of the team’s total tackles and the most by an Eastern Michigan duo since 1999.
Buffalo Bulls
After winning the Camellia Bowl last season, things haven't gone according to plan for Buffalo head coach Maurice Linguist. However, the issues aren't on the defensive side of the ball.
The Bulls' stop unit ranks in the top 40 in the FBS in Rush Success, Line Yards and Pass Success. This is also the same unit that ranks second in the MAC in total defense during conference play, allowing fewer than 300 yards per game.
One of the key performers on this defense is Max Michel, who leads the league with four forced fumbles. He's two short of the single-season program record set by Anthony Scott in 1996.
The Bulls have also done a great job of dominating the time of possession. Buffalo has won the statistic in nine straight games, but the problem is it hasn’t led to enough points.
Eastern Michigan vs Buffalo
Betting Pick & Prediction
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This total (36), which has dropped from the opener of 41.5, is extremely low, and the opportunity to back the underdog at just over a touchdown in a game with such a low total is one I can't turn down.
With that said, my best bet is to take the points with Eastern Michigan at +6.5. I would keep holding out for a +7, but I wouldn’t back this at anything lower than +6.
It's going to be tough for EMU to score, but I don't think the Bulls will score much either. In fact, the Bulls rank 130th nationally in Pass Success on the offensive side of the ball, which will make things more difficult against an average EMU pass defense.
The Eagles also have the advantage in Finishing Drives on both sides of the ball and rank higher in both tackling and coverage grading, according to Pro Football Focus.
Add in the fact that we get the better coach and special teams unit, and I just think this is too many points, especially with a very low total.
Plus, the Eagles will be motivated with bowl eligibility on the line, so I’ll take my chances with the visiting underdogs.
Pick: Eastern Michigan +6.5 (Play to +6)
