Boise State vs UCLA Pick, Prediction, Odds | LA Bowl Betting Preview

December 16

7:30 p.m. ET

ABC

Boise State Odds
Point Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
+6.5 -110	47 -110o / -110u	+200

UCLA Odds
Point Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
-6.5 -110	47 -110o / -110u	-250

Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

Let's make a Boise State vs. UCLA pick and prediction in our LA Bowl betting preview for Saturday's college football slate.

With Jimmy Kimmel no longer sponsoring the LA Bowl, a former Super Bowl tight end is ready to host and entertain from SoFi Stadium. Starco Brands and Rob Gronkowski will sponsor the battle of Boise State between UCLA, where plenty of singing and dancing is expected.

The spectacle will mask two teams that are undergoing big transitions from a roster and coaching staff perspective.

UCLA head coach Chip Kelly has lost two key members of the staff, as quarterback coach Ryan Gunderson is off to Oregon State and defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn resides with USC.

Boise State has experienced a similar predicament, with head coach Andy Avalos being fired in early November. Defensive coordinator Spencer Danielson had his interim tag removed as head coach after winning the Mountian West Championship over UNLV.

Danielson and Kelly now descend upon Inglewood with two rosters heavily affected by the transfer portal, looking to jump into the offseason with a victory.

Boise State Broncos

Boise State won its final four games on the schedule, with three coming against bowl-bound teams. A conference championship was unlikely at the start of November, as Boise owned a 4-5 record with a coach who would soon be fired.

Although the Broncos scored more than 30 points a game, the handling of the offense with quarterback Taylor Green was not smooth for offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan. Fast forward to the present, and Boise is the conference champion with Green committed to Arkansas and Hamdan retained for 2024.

That dynamic will put the entire offense on the shoulders of the rushing attack, primarily running back Ashton Jeanty.

The Boise offense utilizes a heavy amount of zone run concepts, but that may be a limitation in a bowl game without a quarterback.

True freshman CJ Tiller will get the start after playing just two snaps this season — a handoff and a kneel. Tiller's ability to run inside and outside zone will completely dictate Jeanty's effectiveness.

After serving as defensive coordinator for Boise State and Oregon, Avalos was fired for the performance of the Broncos defense this season. A plethora of Mountain West teams put at least 30 points on the board against Boise, including Colorado State, San Diego State and Fresno State.

The primary issue with the Boise State defense is tackling fundamentals. The Broncos rank 129th in tackle grading, per PFF, ranking 116th in broken tackles allowed. Those numbers did not shore up in the wake of Avalos' firing, as Boise missed at least 10 tackles in the final five games of the season.

UCLA Bruins

Outside of a depleted coaching staff, UCLA must work around the transfer portal.

The offense will be without the services of quarterback Dante Moore and wide receiver Kam Brown. Although running back Carson Steele is not in the portal, the former Ball State rusher has not participated in bowl practices in the week leading up to the game.

Both Collin Schlee and Ethan Garbers are expected to take snaps under center, utilizing running back TJ Harden and slot receiver Logan Loya.

The bigger question is the strength of the rush defense, a critical handicap against Boise State's run-heavy offense. The Bruins have been fantastic against inside zone but have struggled against teams that run outside zone with a mobile quarterback.

As of writing, the only major contributors on defense in the transfer portal are from the secondary. UCLA will be without cornerback John Humphrey and safety Kamari Ramsey, but the biggest defect might be to the next level.

Lombardi Award winner Laiatu Latu has declared for the NFL Draft, leaving behind a monster 64 pressures and 15 sacks on the season.

While Latu was the best pass rusher in college football, the biggest pieces of the run defense remain. Defensive interior Keanu Williams and linebacker Kain Medrano graded out better than Latu against the run, as Medrano specifically called out the challenge of Boise State as motivation.

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Boise State vs UCLA

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UCLA and Boise State match up statistically:

UCLA Offense vs Boise State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	56	54
Line Yards	37	56
Pass Success	83	66
Havoc	101	108
Finishing Drives	125	83
Quality Drives	58	61

Boise State Offense vs UCLA Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	11	31
Line Yards	12	13
Pass Success	60	37
Havoc	55	9
Finishing Drives	44	14
Quality Drives	41	18

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	38	129
PFF Coverage	12	94
Special Teams SP+	106	30
Middle 8	89	26
Seconds per Play	24.0 (15)	27.9 (87)
Rush Rate	56.2% (66)	58.4% (20)

Boise State vs UCLA

Betting Pick, Prediction

The Action Network projection would favor UCLA by 4.5 points if this game was played in a vacuum that didn't include roster and coach movement.

The assumption is that the loss of Green will directly affect Boise's ability to run inside and outside zone. In Tiller's seven-minute recruiting video, there are two takeaways:

1. His comfort lined up in the shotgun in 11 personnel showed, as he hit slot targets on a slant but never hit running backs behind the line of scrimmage.
2. Tiller never ran any zone-read option plays during high school.

The Boise State offense is all about getting the ball to Jeanty via read options or passes to the flats or wheel routes. As long as it keys in on Jeanty, there's certainly an advantage for the UCLA defense despite losing multiple starters and its coordinator.

No matter who started under center, UCLA's offense was inconsistent. The Bruins were explosive on early downs and efficient in passing downs, but neither intersected depending on down and distance.

The bread and butter of the passing offense is creating explosive plays for Loya and J. Michael Sturdivant via hitch and out routes.

The biggest issue for UCLA has been converting opportunities to points. The Bruins rank dead last in FBS in regard to red-zone efficiency, scoring just 27 touchdowns on 55 attempts.

UCLA's offensive struggles are expected to continue, especially if trainers deem Steele not healthy enough to play.

Boise State will look to add production around Jeanty in the backfield, but the limitations of a true freshman quarterback are unknown. Tiller will be required to run the read option and hit targets out of the backfield, neither of which appeared on his recruiting film.

Hopefully Gronk has plenty of show tunes queued up for entertainment because points could be hard to come by in SoFi Stadium.

Pick: Under 48.5

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