UCLA vs Utah Odds
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -175 |
Week 4 is here, and conference play begins! In this Pac-12 bout, the UCLA Bruins head to Salt Lake City to take on the Utah Utes. These two teams squared off last season, with the Bruins coming out on top, 42-32, in Pasadena.
UCLA has started strong this season after losing several key players to the NFL. The Bruins dominated North Carolina Central last week and have handily beaten all three of their opponents.
But the biggest test for them comes this week against 11th-ranked Utah.
The Utes are coming off a 31-7 win against Weber State. They’ve been beaten up all year but have maintained a national rank by winning some close games.
Quarterback Cam Rising is expected to make his season debut after tearing his ACL in last season's Rose Bowl.
UCLA Bruins
The Bruins' record is standing true. They have dominated every game, utilizing one of the better offenses in the country. One of the nation's more explosive teams, UCLA ranks 22nd in Success Rate.
With Dorian Thompson-Robinson leaving for the NFL, coach Chip Kelly put the quarterback keys in the hands of freshman Dante Moore. In three games, Moore has made the most of his opportunity and gained confidence, throwing for 615 yards, seven touchdowns and a 62.8% completion.
Because of Moore’s play, the receivers have eaten, most notably sophomore J. Michael Sturdivant, who is averaging 24.3 yards per reception across nine catches.
The rushing attack is special. Carson Steele and T.J. Harden have formed a dynamic duo in the backfield. They’re each averaging more than 8 yards per carry with two touchdowns apiece. They can also complete explosive plays, and the rushing attack ranks 20th in Success Rate.
Steele is a transfer from Ball State who rushed for more than 1,500 yards last season. Harden, a junior who showed promise last season behind Zach Charbonnet, is one of the more elusive backs in the country.
On defense, the Bruins do a decent job at stopping the run.
But the pass defense has been an issue.
UCLA has had a hard time breaking up passes. The Bruins are 75th in Passing Success Rate allowed, with those numbers coming against average teams.
This week, they face a talented but banged-up Utah offense that's likely getting its quarterback back.
Utah Utes
It’s hard to get a grasp on how good Utah is. The Utes started the season with three wins, two very close, but they are still without several key players. The medical staff has been hard at work.
The Utes will be missing tight end Brant Kuithe, center Johnny Maea, defensive end Connor O’Toole (who is close to returning), cornerback JaTravis Broughton, defensive tackle Junior Tafuna, kicker Cole Becker and wide receivers Devaughn Vele, Mycah Pittman, and Munir McClain.
Yikes!
A big part of the team is missing in action, yet the Utes keep winning games. It seems redshirt freshman quarterback Nate Johnson has earned Kyle Whittingham’s trust if Rising can’t go. He’s completed nearly 69% of his passes, adding 175 rushing yards and three scores.
With the receiver core beaten up badly, Utah has relied on junior Money Parks and freshman Mikey Matthews, who have averaged 17 and 12 yards per catch, respectively. However, despite their success, the passing game is a work in progress, ranking 99th in Explosiveness and 86th in Success Rate.
The run game has been the saving grace. Ja’Quinden Jackson has been a bellcow for the Utes. While he hasn’t scored yet, he’s averaging 6.5 yards per carry and is starting to heat up.
Utah's defense has been dominant against the pass. The Utes are ranked third in Pass Success Rate allowed. Missing Broughton will hurt, but that secondary has a lot of depth.
The defensive line has also stepped up. Tafuna, arguably Utah’s best tackle, missed two games and could even miss this week. Once he’s at full strength, this line should raise even more Havoc.
I’m curious to see Utah’s run defense against UCLA's lethal rushing game. The Utes are 28th in stopping the run, but Steele and Harden will challenge them.
UCLA vs Utah
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UCLA and Utah match up statistically:
UCLA Offense vs. Utah Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 20 | 28 | |
| Line Yards | 28 | 30 |  |
| Pass Success | 38 | 27 | |
| Havoc | 49 | 22 | |
| Finishing Drives | 69 | 24 | |
| Quality Drives | 32 | 14 | |
Utah Offense vs. UCLA Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 79 | 63 | |
| Line Yards | 87 | 55 | |
| Pass Success | 99 | 47 | |
| Havoc | 46 | 32 | |
| Finishing Drives | 77 | 8 | |
| Quality Drives | 29 | 11 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 55 | 10 |
| PFF Coverage | 13 | 22 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 44 | 23 |
| Middle 8 | 31 | 76 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.1 (24) | 31.5 (129) |
| Rush Rate | 59.2% (26) | 64.8% (7) |
UCLA vs Utah
Betting Pick & Prediction
Regardless of Rising’s return, most of this game could be settled on the ground. Johnson has proven to be a solid weapon, and Jackson should be a threat.
I also think Johnson will be subbed in randomly to throw off the opposition and give Rising a breather every now and again.
For UCLA, as good as Moore has been and his immediate chemistry with Sturdivant, pounding the rock will be paramount. Even with the injuries, the Utes are elite at stopping the pass, so the Bruins will likely keep it on the ground. Steele and Harden are problems, especially for a team as vulnerable as Utah.
FanDuel has the spread at 5.5, and I’m leaning toward taking the points. This’ll probably be a close game with two nationally-ranked Pac-12 juggernauts battling.
We may see some fireworks in Salt Lake, so saddle up.
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