UConn vs Boston College Odds
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 50.5 -105o / -115u | +450 |
| Boston College Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 50.5 -105o / -115u | -650 |
Connecticut makes the short trip over to Chestnut Hill to take on Boston College on Saturday.
The Huskies blew an 11-point fourth-quarter lead against South Florida last weekend to fall to 1-6 on the season. Jim Mora has turned around this program from being one of the laughingstocks of college football to being somewhat respectable.
Even though the record is bad, four of the six losses have come by 10 points or less, so they've been in pretty much every game.
Boston College is now on a three-game win streak after its 38-23 win on the road at Georgia Tech this weekend. The win moves the Eagles to 4-3 and in puts them a great position to reach a bowl game.
While everything is going so well for the Eagles, it's a good time to sell high on them after this win streak.
Connecticut Huskies
The Huskies lost quarterback Joe Fagnano to a season-ending shoulder injury in the second week of the season, but Ta'Quan Roberson has done a nice job replacing him. He has an 84.2 PFF passing grade and ranks 87th in EPA while making 12 big-time throws compared to just five turnover-worthy plays.
He'll have a big advantage on Saturday because Boston College has one of the worst secondaries in the country.
The Huskies are averaging 4.1 yards per carry as a team, but their two main backs — Victor Rosa and Camryn Edwards — are both averaging over 5.0 yards per carry. Rosa is questionable to play in this game, but Edwards was awesome against USF, rushing for 150 yards. He's an absolute bruiser who averages 4.31 yards per carry after contact.
While Connecticut's defense hasn't been great from a Success Rate standpoint, it's limited explosive plays, which are big in this matchup. The Huskies are 30th in explosiveness allowed and are giving up 5.7 yards per play, which is 85th in the country.
What they have done a good job of is stopping the run. UConn ranks 33rd in EPA/Rush, 28th in Stuff Rate and 32nd in Defensive Line Yards.
Boston College has one of the more explosive rushing attacks in college football, so it will have its hands full.
Boston College Eagles
While the Boston College offense is struggling for consistency and ranks 97th in Success Rate, they have been incredibly explosive, ranking in the top 10 in the country in explosiveness.
Quarterback Thomas Castellanos has been everything to the Eagles offense. As a passer, though, he's kind of struggling. He averages only 7.6 yards per attempt, has a 66.2 PFF passing grade and just a 38% Positive EPA Play percentage (110th in FBS), per Sports Info Solutions.
Because of his inconsistency, Boston College ranks 118th in Passing Success Rate, which is a big problem in this game because that's how teams find success against Connecticut's defense.
Castellanos is also down one of his best wide receivers in Ryan O'Keefe, who had caught the most balls on the team before his injury against Virginia.
The Eagles signal-caller is also the team's leading rusher, carrying the ball 110 times already this season for a 5.7 yards per carry average. He's the reason why Boston College ranks No. 1 in rushing explosiveness.
But the problem in this matchup is that UConn is more than a good rush defense. It just faced a really good running quarterback in USF's Byrum Brown, and outside of one 22-yard run, it held him to 39 yards on his other 13 carries.
The Boston College defense has been horrendous this season. Its 38-23 win over Georgia Tech was the first time it's beaten an opponent by more than three points, and the only reason it did was because Yellow Jackets quarterback Haynes King threw three interceptions.
The Eagles rank 129th in EPA/Pass Allowed and allowing 8.7 yards per attempt while ranking 106th in PFF coverage grading. The kicker is they haven't really faced that tough of a schedule (71st in FBS).
They also can't stop the run, ranking 93rd in Rushing Success Rate. This is one of the worst teams in the country at generating Havoc, and it also ranks near the bottom in Quality Drives Allowed.
So, how is it consistently going to stop UConn?
UConn vs Boston College
Betting Pick & Prediction
The biggest advantage UConn will have in this game is its ability to finish drives. It ranks around the national average at 71st in that category, while Boston College comes in at 118th defensively.
With how bad Boston College's secondary has been, it shouldn't be a two-touchdown favorite over a halfway-decent quarterback even at home.
Plus, facing a bruising running back like Edwards will be tough for a defense that's 90th in terms of a PFF tackle grade.
Connecticut has been successful at stopping the run, and given the success it had in shutting down Brown last weekend, it should be able to keep Castellanos in check. That, in turn, will keep the Boston College offense in check.
I only have Boston College projected as a -10.2 favorite, so I like the value on the Huskies at +14.5.
