Florida State (4-4) and North Carolina (1-7) meet on Saturday afternoon in Tallahassee for an Atlantic Coast Conference contest. The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on the ACC Network.
The Tar Heels stopped a run of four straight defeats with their dominant victory at Virginia last week, moving to 4-4 on the season.
Meanwhile, the Seminoles went winless in October.
The visitors have everything to play for in this spot against a team that might be ready to quit, which should give us some betting value.
The Tar Heels are 2.5-point favorites with a 50-point over/under.
Read on for my North Carolina vs Florida State predictions and college football picks for this NCAAF Week 10 matchup.
North Carolina vs Florida State Prediction, Picks
My North Carolina vs Florida State best bet is on the Tar Heels moneyline, with the best available line at bet365 Sportsbook.
North Carolina vs Florida State Odds, Spread, Lines
| North Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 / -110 | -142 |
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 / -110 | +120 |
- North Carolina vs Florida State Spread: North Carolina -2.5
- North Carolina vs Florida State Over/Under: 50.5 Points
- North Carolina vs Florida State Moneyline: North Carolina -142 · Florida State +120
North Carolina Football vs Florida State Football Preview
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview: Hope For A Bowl Bid
After starting the year with three consecutive wins, coach Mack Brown’s squad followed that up with four losses in a row.
However, the Tar Heels found something during their off week to give them hope for a bowl bid.
Specifically, the defense put together its best game of the year. The UNC defensive unit held Virginia to just seven rushing yards and 14 points while also racking up a season-high 10 sacks, the most by the program since 2000.
On the offensive side of the ball, Omarion Hampton showed another solid performance. The running back finished with over 100 yards for the seventh time in eight games, making him the only Tar Heel to go over the century mark in six or more contests in multiple seasons.
This North Carolina rushing attack has been a bright spot all season. UNC joins Boise State as the only two FBS teams to have a 100-yard rusher in every game.
The Tar Heels will need another big showing here on the road to get another victory.
Florida State Seminoles Betting Preview: Special Teams a Strength
With the program kicking off the season with a conference game in Week 0, this is Florida State’s ACC finale. FSU is the first team to play its entire league schedule, and the squad may be ready for this campaign to end.
If there is something to be positive about, Mike Norvell’s team has covered the spread in three of the last five games. This includes the contests against the league favorites in Miami and Clemson.
The other area of strength has been the play of the Seminoles on special teams. They are tied for first in the nation with five blocked kicks, coming on four field goals and a punt.
Meanwhile, Florida State ranks first in the country with a net punting average of 46.58 yards per punt. Alex Mastromanno leads the nation in yards per punt and 50-yard punts with 21.
Yes, we have gotten to the point where we are talking about special teams with FSU, but it could be a very important part of the game with a tight spread.
Florida State vs UNC Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida State and UNC match up statistically:
North Carolina Offense vs. Florida State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 37 | 77 | |
| Line Yards | 23 | 70 | |
| Pass Success | 96 | 111 | |
| Havoc | 43 | 86 | |
| Finishing Drives | 36 | 58 | |
| Quality Drives | 65 | 117 | |
Florida State Offense vs. North Carolina Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 115 | 99 | |
| Line Yards | 113 | 121 | |
| Pass Success | 129 | 58 | |
| Havoc | 126 | 73 | |
| Finishing Drives | 130 | 75 | |
| Quality Drives | 126 | 86 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 18 | 29 |
| PFF Coverage | 98 | 88 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 69 | 3 |
| Middle 8 | 68 | 105 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.7 (21) | 26.1 (46) |
| Rush Rate | 53% (67) | 47% (119) |
How to Bet My North Carolina vs Florida State Pick
Admittedly, I typically avoid road favorites in college football, especially in conference games.
However, I can only look at the visitors here in this spot.
So, my best bet is for North Carolina to win the game on the moneyline.
I touched on the importance of UNC’s run game this season, which directly attacks one of Florida State’s weaknesses. The Seminoles have struggled to stop the rush, which should continue on Saturday.
The Seminoles come into this one ranked outside the top 70 in the FBS in both Rush Success Rate allowed and EPA per Rush allowed. This is the same unit in the bottom 15 among Power 4 programs in Stuff Rate and Defensive Line Yards.
This is not good against a North Carolina offense that is in the top 25 nationally in EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate. The Tar Heels are also ranked in the top 10 among Power 4 teams in Stuff Rate and Offensive Line Yards.
When FSU has the ball, Norvell still has his team passing at the fourth-highest rate in the country. Unfortunately for the Noles, UNC is a top-30 pass defense.
You can gain yards against this Tar Heel defense on the ground, but the Seminoles don't have a run game.
With nothing to play for, I wonder if this FSU team rolls over if it's getting the ball run down its throat.
So, give me North Carolina to get a rare win and cover over the Seminoles.
Pick: North Carolina ML (-130, bet365)
North Carolina vs Florida State Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 2 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ACC Network |
North Carolina vs Florida State will be played at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida, on Saturday, Nov. 2 at 3:30 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ACC Network.
North Carolina vs Florida State Betting Trends
- 73% of bets and 82% of the money are on UNC to cover the spread
- 73% of bets and 93% of the money on the moneyline are on UNC to win outright
- 46% of bets and 58% of the money are on the under
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
North Carolina vs Florida State Weather
