The North Carolina Tar Heels (4-5, 2-3 ACC) take on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-3, 3-3 ACC) in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. EST on The CW.
Wake Forest is favored by 6 points on the spread with a moneyline of -218. The total is set at 37.5 points.
Here’s my UNC vs. Wake Forest prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 15, 2025.
UNC Tar Heels vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons Prediction, Picks
- UNC vs. Wake Forest Pick: Wake Forest TT Under 22.5 (-120, DraftKings)
My Wake Forest vs. UNC best bet is on the Demon Deacons' team total Under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UNC vs Wake Forest Odds, Spread, Line
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 38.5 -105o / -115u | +145 |
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 38.5 -105o / -115u | -180 |
- UNC vs Wake Forest Spread: Wake Forest -3.5, UNC +3.5
- UNC vs Wake Forest Over/Under: 38.5 Points
- UNC vs Wake Forest Moneyline: UNC ML +145, Wake Forest ML -180
UNC vs Wake Forest College Football Betting Preview
North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina comes in with renewed energy, and I really like the way the team has been playing the past four weeks.
Taking Cal and Virginia to the wire were signs that this team was improving, but defeating Syracuse and Stanford has validated that the process is working at UNC.
We have specifically seen improvement on the defensive side of the ball for UNC, which has held its last four opponents to under 320 total yards while allowing just 15 points per game.
UNC has forced 66 third-down attempts during this stretch, which shows me that the Heels are having success on early downs and getting their opponents off the field more often than we saw to start the season. I have also noticed that UNC is tackling much better, and the defensive pursuit of the ball carrier is also significantly improved.
Offensively, UNC is not going to light it up against anyone, but the output has been better recently.
The ground game showed signs of life in three of the last four, and Gio Lopez has done well to cut down on mistakes and turnovers over the past four games.
While this season is not going to be deemed overly successful overall, a win on Saturday gives UNC a real chance to make a bowl game. If you parlay that in with a win over rival NC State, things may not end up looking so bad in Chapel Hill.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wake Forest has been much improved compared to preseason expectations, as the Deacs are one win away from bowl game eligibility and have played really competitively most of the way this year.
The Wake defense has kept the Deacons in many games this year while locking down on third down and in the red zone.
The secondary has played really well all season, ranking 13th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed and 35th in Pass Explosiveness allowed.
The Wake Forest offense has shown flashes but has been very inconsistent this season.
Quarterback Robby Ashford has managed the offense decently but with very little wow factor. At times, the pass offense has been wildly ineffective, and Wake has had to rely on the ground attack and their defense to keep it competitive.
UNC vs Wake Forest NCAAF Week 12 Pick
I think this is a fascinating matchup, and I don’t see too much separation between the two teams.
The total is low, and both teams are defensively focused.
In this matchup, I like the Wake Forest Team total under 22.5.
Wake Forest has failed to eclipse this team total each of the past three weeks, and the Deacons found a way to win their last game against Virginia without scoring an offensive touchdown — they pieced together just two 50-yard drives, and the remaining ones ended in punts.
The Demon Deacons rank 90th nationally in EPA per Play and 98th in Havoc allowed. The offensive line has allowed far too many negative plays and quarterback pressures, and I would expect UNC to live in the backfield here.
UNC has registered 55 tackles for loss and 27 sacks this season, and the resurgence of the defense leads me to believe that this unit will have the upper hand on Saturday.
Wake Forest is one of the worst teams at executing in the red zone, ranking 121st nationally in Finishing Drives.
Wake Forest has scored just 10 touchdowns in the red zone this season on 29 trips inside the opponent's 20-yard line. The Deacs have settled for nine field goals and have been turned away with zero points on ten different occasions this year.
North Carolina's red-zone defense has been elite over the past three weeks, allowing just two scores in six red-zone attempts and just 11 touchdowns in 29 attempts all season.
I trust the UNC defense to keep the Heels in the game.
The total is set under 38 — this game will be a low-scoring grinder.
Wake Forest will resort to kicking field goals or worse in the red zone, and I do not trust the Deacons to score enough to eclipse their individual team total.
Pick: Wake Forest Team Total Under 22.5 (-120, DraftKings)
Moneyline
No play.
Against the Spread
No play.
Over/Under
I'm on the Wake Forest Team Total Under.
