The UNLV Rebels (4-1, 1-0 MWC) take on the Utah State Aggies (1-4, 0-1) in a Mountain West clash on Friday, Oct. 11. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
UNLV is coming off a wild game last Friday night in Las Vegas, as it lost to Syracuse in a back-and-forth affair. There was a lot of questionable officiating throughout the contest, leaving many Rebels backers in shambles.
The Aggies, meanwhile, have dropped four straight and make a solid case for a bottom-five team in FBS.
Oddsmakers have the Rebels as -19.5 point home favorites and the total set at 66.5.
So, let's dive in and get into my UNLV vs. Utah State predictions and college football picks for Friday, Oct. 11.
UNLV vs Utah State Odds, Spread, Line
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18.5 -115 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | -1200 |
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18.5 -105 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | +720 |
- UNLV vs Utah State Spread: UNLV -18.5
- UNLV vs Utah State Over/Under: 66.5 Points
- UNLV vs Utah State Moneyline: UNLV ML -1200 · Utah State ML +720
UNLV vs Utah State Pick, Prediction, Best Bet
- UNLV vs. Utah State Prediction: UNLV 1H -10.5
Prediction
My top pick for Friday's Mountain West clash is for UNLV to cover the first-half spread.
Spread
I see value on Friday's UNLV vs. Utah State spread — but only on the first-half number, as I anticipate that the Rebels could take their foot off the gas if things get out of hand early.
Over/Under
With the over/under set at a relatively high 66.5, I don't see betting value on either side.
Moneyline
I think UNLV will get out to an early lead, but I don't want to bet its full-game moneyline at -1200.
UNLV Rebels Betting Preview: The Hajj-Malik Williams Era
Everyone panicked when former starting quarterback Matthew Sluka left the team due to a NIL deal dispute, as he claimed he did not receive any of the compensation that was agreed upon prior.
It's officially Hajj-Malik Williams' time for Barry Odom's team, and he is a spectacle.
Williams is an upgrade over Sluka, and he's been outstanding in his first two games. He's completing 83% of his passes with six touchdown passes and an interception.
Williams has also been a menace on the ground, averaging over eight yards per carry on 31 carries with two touchdowns. The Rebels run the ball 71% of the time, so you may as well call them a faux-service academy offense.
Receiver Ricky White III seems to make highlight reel plays every week, and he has a 100% catch rate on 29 receptions thus far. He's averaging roughly 13 yards per play and six touchdowns on the season.
The Rebels offense is electric, as the Go-Go offense has become even stronger. Unfortunately for them, they got hosed by a questionable ACC officiating crew last week, and the Rebels would need a lot of help to have a path to the College Football Playoff.
Nonetheless, it's a nice bounce-back opportunity against the Aggies on the road. It's rare to say that in a conference road game, but it's been that type of season in Aggie Land.
UNLV enters the game top-50 in an abundance of offensive metrics, including Havoc Allowed, Line Yards and Passing Success Rate. It has also been excellent in Finishing Drives, and this is a dream matchup against an Aggies defense that has been practically a turn-style on defense in the red zone.
The defensive side of the ball has also been impressive. It did get gashed last week against the Orange, but it can still go nonetheless.
The Rebels should have no issues against a bad Aggies offense, especially since they're 24th in Defensive Havoc. They also have a massive apecial teams edge and should dominate the time of possession.
This has all of the makings of a blowout at Maverik Stadium.
Utah State Aggies Betting Preview: Misery in Logan
I don't think anybody thought the Aggies were going to be any good entering the season, but they've been dreadful. Their only win came against Robert Morris, and things didn't get much better when they got blitzed by Temple.
Quarterback Spencer Petras returned last week, and he's put up respectable stats thus far. The Iowa transfer has six touchdowns and three interceptions with a 63% completion rate thus far.
The offense loves to go rapidly fast despite ranking outside the bottom 90 in Rushing Success Rate and Havoc Allowed. It sits 42nd in Line Yards, but it has really struggled to establish a reputation as a team that can post nice numbers in Quality Drives or Finishing Drives.
The Rebels defense is excellent at holding strong in its own territory, so I'm having a hard time finding a path for Utah State to score consistently.
The USU defense is even worse, and there's no chance it can keep up with the UNLV offense. The Aggies rank outside the top 100 in most defensive metrics, including Line Yards and Havoc.
There's no way Petras and Co. can keep up here. Their best bet would be to try and play keep-away, but with the way they like to run their offense, it seems like it would be nearly impossible to do that.
Utah State vs UNLV Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Utah State and UNLV match up statistically:
UNLV Offense vs. Utah State Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 63 | 122 | |
| Line Yards | 24 | 125 | |
| Pass Success | 15 | 119 | |
| Havoc | 45 | 128 | |
| Finishing Drives | 30 | 129 | |
| Quality Drives | 41 | 127 | |
Utah State Offense vs. UNLV Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 97 | 32 | |
| Line Yards | 42 | 55 | |
| Pass Success | 73 | 54 | |
| Havoc | 89 | 23 | |
| Finishing Drives | 122 | 104 | |
| Quality Drives | 106 | 24 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 72 | 86 |
| PFF Coverage | 36 | 52 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 10 | 115 |
| Middle 8 | 25 | 131 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.9 (78) | 22.9 (7) |
| Rush Rate | 71% (4) | 46% (106) |
How to Bet My UNLV vs Utah State Pick
This is a smash spot to back UNLV here, and I think the motivation for the remainder of the season will be to hang crooked numbers to bolster its CFP resume.
With Williams under center the past two weeks, we've seen a preview of the upside of the offense when it's clicking on all cylinders. The Aggies defense is in complete disarray, so it should be smooth sailing all evening long.
I am worried about the Rebels taking their foot off the gas late, so I'm going to lay the points with the Rebels in the first half here.
Pick: UNLV 1H -10.5
UNLV vs Utah State Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Maverik Stadium, Logan, UT |
| Date: | Friday, Oct. 11 |
| Kickoff Time: | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS Sports Network |
Utah State vs UNLV Betting Trends
UNLV vs Utah State Weather
