USC vs Colorado Betting Odds, Picks: Back Coach Prime & Buffaloes?

Saturday, Sept. 30

12 p.m. ET

FOX

USC Odds
Spread	Over/Under	ML
-22.5 -105	72.5 -110o / -110u	-1600

Colorado Odds
Spread	Over/Under	ML
+22.5 -115	72.5 -110o / -110u	+900

Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

Coach Prime is back in Boulder for another matchup against a top-10 conference opponent.

Despite two consecutive non-covering efforts, including a beatdown at the hands of Oregon, the wind isn't out of the sails for Colorado football. The Ducks hosted the Buffaloes in an afternoon snoozer that saw more than 10 million viewers tune in last week.

Now, Colorado is set to face a team from a major television market with the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, as USC makes the trip to Boulder.

The Buffaloes were shredded during the first half in Autzen Stadium, entering halftime without any points and a 35-point deficit. The Ducks took their foot off the pedal, as all eyes turned to the Buffs' Week 5 showdown with the Trojans.

USC had struggles of its own in a late-night shootout with Arizona State. Head coach Lincoln Riley was blunt in his assessment of the Trojans' execution, as Pac-12 referees were busy leaving laundry on the field in Tempe.

While the offense remains one of the best in the nation, the defense has taken steps in the right direction from the perspective of Havoc and limiting opponent scoring.

With the highest total on the board for Week 5, there will be no shortage of fireworks in Boulder.

USC Trojans

The numbers indicate improvement from the USC defense, which ranks top-five in Havoc and Finishing Drives. Opponents have generated 24 scoring opportunities against the Trojans, but they've averaged less than a point per trip on the season.

The defense has been eager to provide chaos, causing eight fumbles and leading the nation in tackles for loss.

Edge Solomon Byrd not only leads the team in pressures but has generated a team-high 11 stops, which is defined as a failure by the offense.

Although the numbers indicate defensive improvement, the quality of offenses USC has faced has been less than desirable. The average offensive rank for San Jose State, Nevada, Stanford and Arizona State is 104th, per SP+.

Areas of improvement linger in preventing the big play, coverage and tackle grading.

While the defense is untested, the USC offense has not missed a beat from the 2022 season.

Quarterback Caleb Williams has a plethora of explosive options, as Zachariah Branch, Brenden Rice and Duce Robinson all average at least three yards per route run. Slot receiver Tahj Washington leads all targets on the best offense nationally in big-play rate in first downs.

Success Rate is not just a measurement of gaining the yards needed depending on down and distance; it's also a strong indicator of teams that win outright. USC enters Boulder with the strongest combination of Offensive Success Rate in the nation, ranking second in standard downs and 11th in passing downs.

Whether it's a run or pass, no defense has been able to put up any hurdles in the Trojans' path to scoring.

The must-have app for college football bettors

The best NCAAF betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Colorado Buffaloes

The toughest part of college football is the ability to play at full speed in consecutive weeks. Colorado was due for a deflation after three titanic games that not only produced three wins but generated the biggest cultural buzz on the sidelines.

The Buffaloes are much better than the preseason expectations set by the oddsmakers, but now Colorado is tasked with improving a number of deficient areas.

The Buffs have yet to produce a run game, calling a run on just 40% of snaps with running back Dylan Edwards making a bigger impact in the passing game. Colorado enters Week 5 ranked 111th in run grading, per PFF — a critical factor needed to keep the potent USC offense off the field.

The great news is an evolving passing game led by Shedeur Sanders. The Jackson State transfer has 11 touchdowns to just a single interception. More impressive is Sanders' work in a crowded pocket, throwing five touchdowns on 47 attempts with a minimal drop-off in adjusted completion percentage.

On the other side, Bo Nix and the Oregon offense annihilated Colorado's defense.

While the secondary was expected to regress in the absence of injured cornerback Travis Hunter, it was tackling that allowed the Ducks to fly. The Buffaloes put up their worst grade of the season in terms of tackling and pass rush on the season — an expected output against an Oregon offense that's best in the nation in offensive momentum killer.

Safeties Shilo Sanders and Trevor Woods are the two highest-graded coverage defenders on the team, and both are expected to be in the spotlight against the Trojans offense.

USC vs Colorado

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how USC and Colorado match up statistically:

USC Offense vs. Colorado Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	4	104
Line Yards	2	54
Pass Success	4	101
Havoc	13	111
Finishing Drives	17	96
Quality Drives	16	83

Colorado Offense vs. USC Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	113	62
Line Yards	59	40
Pass Success	37	22
Havoc	104	4
Finishing Drives	78	2
Quality Drives	82	37

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	61	63
PFF Coverage	54	38
Special Teams SP+	10	87
Middle 8	50	102
Seconds per Play	26.6 (66)	24.0 (17)
Rush Rate	44.9% (109)	40.6% (132)

USC vs Colorado

Betting Pick & Prediction

The handicap on Colorado has been spot-on through four weeks, as the Buffaloes have failed to produce a solid rushing attack while relying on a top-50 third-down conversion rate.

Sanders has been excellent when needed, as Colorado is the top-ranked offense nationally in Passing Downs Success Rate. The organized chaos will result in productive drives in Week 5, as USC is one of the worst defenses nationally in passing downs. The Trojans rank 101st in Success Rate and 122nd in defending explosives in these situations.

Those numbers are even more deflating for a USC team that ranks 130th in strength of schedule.

There's little doubt the Trojans are going to move the ball and score on offense, as Colorado ranks bottom-20 in defending the explosive play.

Head coach Deion Sanders may take a page out of Arizona State's playbook, fighting the Trojans with offensive explosives. The Sun Devils' anemic offense posted above the national average in explosive and methodical drive rates, generating eight passes over 15 yards from quarterback Drew Pyne.

The numbers are encouraging for a Colorado offense that lives behind schedule, as Arizona State still finished above the national average despite a rank of 97th in Passing Downs Success Rate.

The Action Network Power Ratings have Colorado comfortably covering the three scores, as this game has a wide variance thanks to penalties. Both teams rank bottom 10 nationally in penalty yards per game, but the more interesting trend is in opponent penalties. Colorado's opponents are flagged more than any other in the nation, averaging 10.5 penalties for 95 yards a game.

USC is the direct opposite, as opponents are receiving just four flags for an average of 34 yards in Trojan games.

With offensive explosives and minimal defense expected from both teams, third-down performance and penalties may be the deciding factor. Both of those categories belong to Colorado after one month of play.

Pick: Colorado +21 or Better

Bet the Buffs Immediately at FanDuel With QuickSlip!