USC vs Notre Dame Odds
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
One of the best rivalries in college football takes place in prime time on Saturday night as undefeated USC takes on Notre Dame.
The Trojans survived an absolute scare against Arizona in triple overtime to win 43-41 and stay undefeated. The trip to South Bend is Lincoln Riley's first massive test of the season, as the Trojans have played a relatively easy schedule up to this point.
While this game won't affect their standing in the Pac-12, it's a must-win if they want to make the College Football Playoff.
Notre Dame suffered its second loss of the season at Louisville last Saturday night as the defense tired out down the stretch to lose, 33-20.
The Irish's hopes of the College Football Playoff spot are all but over, so now it's time for them to play spoiler for the remainder of the season.
Where does the betting value lie in this historic college football rivalry? Let's dive into the USC vs. Notre Dame odds and make a pick in this betting preview for Saturday, Oct. 14.
USC Trojans
I don't know if there are many more words to describe how good of quarterback Caleb Williams is.
After winning the Heisman last season, he's now averaging 10.9 yards per attempt and ranks third in EPA with a PFF passing grade of 90.3 on throws over 20 yards in the air.
He's already racked up 1,822 yards passing through six games and should torch another secondary come Saturday.
Caleb Williams has one of the best right arms football has EVER seen 😳
Many NFL scouts reportedly believe Williams is the “best QB prospect” the past decade has had to offer.
Some NFL scouts reportedly believe Williams would go before names like Andrew Luck and Trevor… pic.twitter.com/v40J0JqTKS
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) October 4, 2023
He's also averaging 5.0 yards be carry on the ground, but he's had a bit of a fumbling problem, already putting the ball on the ground eight times this season.
Even if Williams is off his game, USC's rushing attack has been elite as well.
Main back MarShawn Lloyd is averaging a whopping 7.7 yards per carry. He has the best PFF rushing grade in the nation at 92.1, which has helped the Trojans to top-15 ranks in both Rushing Success Rate and EPA/Rush.
However, USC's defense cannot stop giving up explosive plays. The Trojans are allowing 5.4 yards per play, which is around the national average, but they rank 122nd in explosiveness allowed. With a backup quarterback, Arizona put up over 500 yards of offense and threw for five touchdowns against this USC defense.
Even against Colorado, Shedeur Sanders threw for 371 yards and four touchdowns, while the Buffs ran for just short of 200 yards.
Sam Hartman has to be licking his chops now that he has the opportunity to face this USC defense with the world watching.
Tackling was a major problem for the Trojans last season, and it remains a massive problem in 2023.
The reason USC is allowing so many explosive plays is that it isn't bringing ball-carriers down on first contact. The Trojans rank 111th in terms of tackling grade, per PFF. The fact that it's gone on this long means it's essentially purely a coaching problem.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Even though Notre Dame has lost two games with some subpar offensive performances, Hartman is still one of the best quarterbacks in college football.
He's averaging 9.2 yards per attempt this season to go along with 16 touchdown passes and 14 big-time throws — a top-five mark in college football.
He's struggled in a few games against some good secondaries, but USC is far from a "good" secondary.
Notre Dame's rushing attack has been solid as well, ranking 27th in Rushing Success Rate behind lead back Audric Estime. Estime is averaging an absurd 6.6 yards per carry with 4.4 yards coming after contact.
He owns a PFF rushing grade of 88.8, which ranks fifth in FBS, and has forced 38 missed tackles to rank sixth.
AUDRIC ESTIME[ UNREAL DRAMA IN DURHAM
— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 1, 2023
Marcus Freeman's defense has been good this season, but it's far from elite.
The Fighting Irish held Ohio State to 17 points and Duke to 14, but they allowed 10 drives to end inside their 40-yard line in those two games combined. Still, neither offense could capitalize on its opportunities.
Then, Louisville came along and showed the Irish they were playing with fire, racking up 26 points on seven drives inside the Notre Dame 40-yard line.
The other big concern in this game for Notre Dame is how it's fared against the run for the past three games. The Irish played some pretty bad offenses to begin the season, but Ohio State, Duke and Louisville all averaged over 4.5 yards per carry against this front seven.
With the top-graded running back in the country through Week 6 coming to town with the best quarterback in the nation, it's hard to see how the Irish slow down this Trojans offense.
USC vs Notre Dame
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how USC and Notre Dame match up statistically:
USC Offense vs Notre Dame Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 15 | 30 | |
| Line Yards | 9 | 33 | |
| Pass Success | 8 | 13 | |
| Havoc | 32 | 64 | |
| Finishing Drives | 10 | 22 | |
| Quality Drives | 21 | 31 | |
Notre Dame Offense vs USC Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 27 | 88 | |
| Line Yards | 51 | 59 | |
| Pass Success | 38 | 56 | |
| Havoc | 26 | 11 | |
| Finishing Drives | 15 | 5 | |
| Quality Drives | 49 | 67 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 111 | 81 |
| PFF Coverage | 34 | 37 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 97 | 81 |
| Middle 8 | 37 | 61 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.2 (57) | 29.1 (108) |
| Rush Rate | 45.7% (112) | 54.2% (53) |
USC vs Notre Dame
Betting Pick, Prediction
There's some wind forecasted in the 10-12 MPH range when this game kicks off, which could throw off both of these quarterbacks. But, in my opinion, that's not enough to drastically impact this game.
Even if these two signal-callers are off, these offenses feature two of the best running backs in the country going up against a front seven that has been exposed in recent weeks.
USC is going to try and push the pace of this game, as Notre Dame plays at one of the slowest paces in the country. But if the Irish fall behind, they're going to play in a high-scoring affair against one of the best offenses in college football.
I have 67.8 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 60 points.
