Oregon State vs Utah Odds
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
The Pac-12 is often thought of as a defense-optional, high-powered offensive finesse conference.
Friday night will provide a different narrative, as the two most physical teams are set to battle in the trenches at a potentially rainy Reser Stadium.
While the all-time series between Utah and Oregon State shows a 12-12-1 mark, it's the Utes that have had extreme success over the past decade. Head coach Kyle Whittingham continues to produce the best defenses west of the Mississippi River as Utah seeks its third straight Pac-12 Championship.
As the Utes' star quarterback Cam Rising continues to sit with injury, the defense led the way in a conference-opening victory over UCLA.
Meanwhile, a loss in Week 4 put a dimmer on the hopes of Oregon State winning the Pac-12 in its final season with the conference. The Beavers failed to force interceptions, allowing Washington State to take a comfortable home lead into the fourth quarter.
Oregon State returns to the friendly confines of Corvallis this week, where head coach Jonathan Smith has accumulated a 13-1 against-the-spread mark since the 2021 season.
For the Beavers to have any chance at a conference title, Friday night is a must-win in a game that will have plenty of pads popping for all consumers.
Oregon State Beavers
The Beavers were in cruise control coming into conference play, as they allowed 16 points in their previous two games to San Diego State and UC Davis.
Oregon State acted as a brick wall to opposing rushing attacks, ranking top-15 in Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Defensive interior Sione Lolohea ranked as one of the highest individual players in tackles for loss, but a date against Washington State's explosive pass unit set the Beavers back in the loss column.
Quarterback Cam Ward shredded the Oregon State secondary for 400 yards and four touchdowns, as the Havoc-minded Beavers were unable to force any interceptions.
The specialty of this defense remains defending the ground game and limiting explosives in passing downs.
Linebacker Easton Mascarenas-Arnold leads the team in tackles, assists and stops.
While the defense has been lethal against the rush, it's the offensive ground game that makes the headlines. Oregon State boasts the highest-ranked offense on the ground in terms of Rushing Success Rate, led by sophomore bulldozer Damien Martinez.
The combination of Martinez, running back Deshaun Fenwick and Clemson transfer quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has made this the top red-zone offense in the nation. In 27 drives past the opposing team's 40-yard line, the Beavers are averaging 5.1 points per scoring opportunity.
The key to stopping the Beavers is knocking them off schedule, as their efficiency takes a plunge in Passing Down Explosives and Passing Success Rate.
Any opposing defense that can't stop the run will have a long night against Oregon State.
Utah Utes
The quarterback situation remains unclear for Utah, but the Utes nearly pitched a shutout on the defensive side to beat UCLA in Week 4. The Bruins were held to 3.6 overall yards per play, with 60% of rushing attempts stuffed and an average third-down distance of 10.3 yards.
Utah forced 11 tackles for loss with seven sacks on the afternoon, and the opening pick-six proved to be the difference in the low-scoring affair.
Like Oregon State, the Utes shred opposing rushing attacks with top 10 ranks in nearly every advanced statistic.
The key difference between the two teams is the back seven of Utah, as it ranks top-25 in coverage and Passing Success Rate. Utah is the top-rated defense nationally in terms of Passing Downs Success Rate.
Both starters on the edge have terrorized opponent quarterbacks, as Logan Fano and Jonah Elliss have combined for 27 pressures and nine sacks on the season.
And that's why all the questions surrounding the future of Utah are centered at the quarterback position.
Rising spent the summer recovering from an ACL injury, which he suffered midway through the Rose Bowl against Penn State. Expectations for the season opener against Florida were tempered, but now the senior quarterback is rumored to redshirt with all eyes on 2024.
Nate Johnson started the 2023 campaign behind Bryson Barnes on the depth chart but now has taken over the starting role in the absence of Rising. Johnson has struggled with his passing attempts, generating three turnover-worthy plays this season.
Despite three fumbles against UCLA, the best attribute Johnson has under center is his ability to contribute to a run game led by Ja'Quinden Jackson.
At 4.8 yards after contact, Jackson has posted eight explosive runs and one of the highest elusive ratings in the conference.
Oregon State vs Utah
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Utah and Oregon State match up statistically:
Utah Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 104 | 78 | |
| Line Yards | 109 | 4 | |
| Pass Success | 106 | 42 | |
| Havoc | 93 | 15 | |
| Finishing Drives | 101 | 29 | |
| Quality Drives | 43 | 44 |  |
Oregon State Offense vs. Utah Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 1 | 9 | |
| Line Yards | 14 | 17 | |
| Pass Success | 56 | 9 | |
| Havoc | 22 | 8 | |
| Finishing Drives | 11 | 13 | |
| Quality Drives | 41 | 9 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 11 | 68 |
| PFF Coverage | 21 | 61 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 44 | 6 |
| Middle 8 | 50 | 67 |
| Seconds per Play | 31.6 (131) | 28.0 (85) |
| Rush Rate | 67.1% (6) | 54.8% (49) |
Oregon State vs Utah
Betting Pick & Prediction
While most viewers tune into the Pac-12 for high-flying offenses, Friday night will be anything but an air show from Corvallis.
Both teams excel at running the ball and each has a quarterback well-versed in zone-read schemes to move the chains.
The handicap in this game is about which defensive front seven is better equipped to stop the ground game at the line of scrimmage.
While both teams have had a similar strength of schedule, Utah has played the better rushing attacks, as Baylor and UCLA are in the top 35 in run-blocking grades. Baylor was more successful against the Utes' defensive front, averaging 4.2 yards per play on 29 rushing attempts in a Week 2 game at Waco.
The Utah defense has the advantage in terms of Quality Drives, with a top-10 rank against an Oregon State team that's 41st offensively in the same category.
If there's an area Utah can be exposed in, it's an inefficient offense that has trouble taking care of the rock. Johnson has six fumbles on the season, with three against UCLA alone.
Oregon State has forced seven fumbles this season, just one shy of the national lead. The Beavers' high Havoc rank is powered by fumbles and tackles for loss, both troublesome areas for a Utah team that ranks 93rd in Havoc Allowed.
The Action Network Betting Power Ratings place Utah as a one-point favorite, but inefficiency and turnovers have contributed to a steam number in favor of the Beavers.
There may be no greater home-field advantage than Oregon State in Reser Stadium, a factor that contributes to market love for the home team.
While the number may be inflated on the Beavers' side, there's no reason to think this game goes over the total. Both offenses play a slow, grinding tempo and each defense specializes in stopping the rush.
The Beavers and Utes excel at stopping the big play on passing downs, signaling that each drive will be methodical.
Expect the defenses — which rank in the top 30 in Finishing Drives — to be a contributing factor to a low-scoring total.
Look to scoop the key number of 45 in a totals market that's sure to steam with weather pending.
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