Utah vs USC Odds
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 51.5 -115o / -105u | +200 |
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 51.5 -115o / -105u | -250 |
Five Pac-12 teams have a realistic shot at making the College Football Playoff, as Utah and USC prepare to play a knockout game at the national level.
Each team has suffered a loss this season, the Trojans in Week 7 to Notre Dame and the Utes to Oregon State in Week 5. USC got dominated in South Bend, surrendering five turnovers while allowing the Fighting Irish to generate 11 tackles for loss.
The Trojans have yet to provide an answer on the defensive side of the ball, while the numbers of reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams have dipped.
Utah dealt with injuries before taking a snap this season, as quarterback Cam Rising has yet to take the field. Tight end Brant Kuithe is also out indefinitely with a knee injury, while the running back rotation welcomed a defensive back for carries in a Week 7 victory over Cal.
Although Utah doesn't consider this a rivalry, this is the fourth time these teams have played over the span of the last two years. USC has lost the previous three meetings with the latest coming in the 202 Pac-12 Championship game.
While a USC loss wouldn't knock it out of the chase for the conference, a loss for either team will close the books on any national title hopes.
Utah Utes
The Utah defense continues to be not only one of the best on the West Coast but in all of college football. Coordinator Morgan Scalley has the Utes ranking in the top 15 in Havoc, Success Rate, Quality Drives and Finishing Drives.
There have not been many areas to attack, as the 4-2-5 scheme is top-10 in Stuff Rate and Success Rate against the pass. Utah is the highest-ranked defense in stopping third-down conversions, allowing only 18-of-78 attempts to generate a first down.
Safeties Sione Vaki and Cole Bishop lead the team in tackles, but in the case of Vaki, a new role was on display against Cal.
One of the best storylines from the college football weekend was a special two way performance by Utah’s Sione Vaki
4 Tackles
2 Touchdowns
158 Yards Rushing (10.5 YPC)
pic.twitter.com/A8RgIZw5p6— Joe O’Leary (@TheHQNerd) October 15, 2023
Vaki lined up at halfback and rushed for 158 yards and two touchdowns against the Bears. The depth chart has been light behind primary rushers Jaylon Glover and Ja'Quinden Jackson.
Injuries have taken a toll not just on Jackson but at the quarterback position as well. Rising is listed on the depth chart against USC, although head coach Kyle Whittingham mentioned the possibility of a medical redshirt.
Nate Johnson was listed on the depth chart as the backup to Rising over Bryson Barnes, who completed 15 of his 21 passes for 128 yards against Cal. Both Barnes and Johnson have provided four turnover-worthy plays on a near-even number of passing attempts, but neither has provided a spark to the offense.
The Utah offense has experienced troubles without its star quarterback, falling bottom 20 in Success Rate, pass explosives and Finishing Drives.
USC Trojans
For the first time in his collegiate career, Caleb Williams threw three interceptions against Notre Dame.
The numbers have been horrific for the Trojans quarterback, posting 13 turnover-worthy plays this season after recording only 11 in his Heisman campaign last season. Williams has not posted a big-time throw since a Week 4 shootout with Arizona State.
Outside of the passing mistakes that have piled up, Williams has fumbled the ball nine times this season, eclipsing a total of six last season on double the number of rushing attempts.
USC has fallen to 63rd in Havoc Allowed and owns a penalty per game rank of 125th.
Caleb Williams throws his third interception… of the first half
(via @NDFootball) pic.twitter.com/sVLUslKEBp
— SI College Football (@si_ncaafb) October 15, 2023
Coordinator Alex Grinch has seen improvement in the defense, particularly when opposing offenses have an opportunity to score. USC has climbed to 11th in Defensive Finishing Drives, allowing just 2.6 points on 43 opponent trips past the 40-yard line.
USC has not been good in holding teams back from an available yards standpoint, supporting a low Success Rate rank while falling outside the top 100 in first downs allowed.
The Trojans' nickel defense has given up plenty of explosive plays, adopting a true bend-don't-break mentality in allowing only three opponent red-zone trips per game.
Utah vs USC
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Utah and USC match up statistically:
Utah Offense vs. USC Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 101 | 83 | |
| Line Yards | 105 | 63 | |
| Pass Success | 111 | 62 | |
| Havoc | 90 | 11 | |
| Finishing Drives | 124 | 11 | |
| Quality Drives | 30 | 73 | |
USC Offense vs. Utah Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 24 | 12 | |
| Line Yards | 10 | 15 | |
| Pass Success | 10 | 8 |  |
| Havoc | 32 | 3 | |
| Finishing Drives | 10 | 12 | |
| Quality Drives | 25 | 5 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 24 | 88 |
| PFF Coverage | 54 | 24 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 79 | 77 |
| Middle 8 | 37 | 48 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.7 (129) | 26.5 (61) |
| Rush Rate | 65.2% (7) | 46.4% (114) |
Utah vs USC
Betting Pick & Prediction
The struggles for Williams in the passing game were expected against an Irish team that ran multiple coverage packages. USC has a high Success Rate and hits plenty of explosives against quarters defense, but it becomes a middle-of-the-pack team against Cover 1 and Cover 3.
The Utes' 4-2-5 defense plays an even distribution of Cover 1 and Cover 3, implementing quarters on just 6% of defensive snaps against the pass.
Williams' struggles in the passing game should carry over into Week 8 against a defense that posted two turnover-worthy plays in the Pac-12 Championship last December.
The offensive struggles are expected to continue for a Utah team making a third road trip on the season. Johnson should provide the best opportunity to move the ball, as the USC defense has been much more susceptible to explosives on the ground than through the air.
Plus, the Trojans have struggled a bit against mobile quarterbacks. San Jose State's Chevan Cordeiro ran for 72 rushing yards, while Colorado's Shedeur Sanders added 76 yards and a score. Even Arizona backup Noah Fifita scrambled for 30 against USC.
Utah did have an offensive outburst against Cal, receiving an assist from two turnovers and an average starting field position at the 38-yard line.
The Action Network projection sets the game at USC -5 with a total of 54.5.
Points will be at a premium for a USC offense that has consistently struggled against Cover 1 and Cover 3. Conversely, Utah has scrambled to find offensive points with poor ranks in scoring opportunities.
In a low-scoring game, Utah's quarterbacks should be able to do enough against a USC defense that still has holes.
