If I had told you before the season that this matchup would be to clinch bowl eligibility, you would have assumed I was talking about Auburn.
However, Vanderbilt sits 5-3 and can clinch its first postseason berth since 2018 on Saturday. The Commodores have won three of their past four games, only taking a three-point loss to Texas.
Auburn sits just 3-5 in Hugh Freeze's second season as head coach. The Tigers have lost four of their past five games and have just one win over a Power 4 team this season.
Despite the difference in records, Auburn is a touchdown favorite on Saturday — the Tigers are 7-point favorites with a 48-point over/under.
But Vanderbilt has a quarterback who has already pulled off a massive upset at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Read on for our Vanderbilt vs Auburn predictions and college football picks for this Week 10 NCAAF matchup. The game kicks off at 12:45 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on SEC Network.
Vanderbilt vs Auburn Prediction
My Vanderbilt vs Auburn best bet is on the Commodores to cover as 7.5-point road underdogs at bet365 Sportsbook.
Vanderbilt vs Auburn Odds, Spread, Betting Lines
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 / -110 | +240 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 / -110 | -300 |
- Vanderbilt vs Auburn Point Spread: Vanderbilt +7.5 (-110) · Auburn -7.5 (-110)
- Vanderbilt vs Auburn Total: Over/Under 48.5
- Vanderbilt vs Auburn Moneyline: Vanderbilt +240 · Auburn -300
Vanderbilt Commodores vs Auburn Tigers College Football Preview
Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview: Diego Diego!
Last season, Diego Pavia and New Mexico State went into Auburn and crushed the Tigers.
The Aggies went on the road as 26-point underdogs and won by three scores (31-10). Pavia was 19 for 28 passing with 201 yards and three touchdowns. He rushed for 35 yards and quarterbacked his team to a convincing win with the utmost confidence.
After transferring to Vanderbilt for this season, Pavia has maintained the same gamer attitude. He has thrown 13 touchdowns and just three interceptions for the Commodores and leads the team with over 500 yards on the ground.
Pavia is teamed in the backfield with Sedrick Alexander to form a methodical offense that ranks in the top 50 nationally in Russ Success Rate and Pass Success Rate. The 'Dores run the ball behind an offensive line that ranks 11th in Line Yards, and when they throw the ball, Pavia’s favorite target is tight end Eli Stowers, who came with him from New Mexico State.
Vanderbilt’s defense hasn't been elite, but it has done its job. It's been strong against the run, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry. Teams have rushed for more than 160 yards on Vandy just twice all year, and Alabama is the only team that has scored more than one rushing touchdown in a game.
Auburn Tigers Betting Preview: They Don't Have A Quarterback
If you asked 100 people about Auburn’s most significant issue, you would get the same answer from 100 different people.
The Tigers don’t have a quarterback.
Payton Thorne was average at Michigan State, transferred to Auburn, and continues to be average.
Thorne has thrown just 12 touchdowns with seven interceptions and has minimal upside. He isn't mobile and has just nine big-time throws. At one point, Thorne was benched for freshman Hank Brown, but that didn’t work either, so the Tigers returned to Thorne.
It’s a shame they don’t have a quarterback because this team has a ridiculously talented wide receiver group. Cam Coleman was the No. 2 ranked wide receiver recruit in this year’s freshman class (ranked ahead of Alabama’s Ryan Williams), Perry Thompson was ranked No. 8, and Malcolm Simmons was No. 29. KeAndre Lambert-Smith transferred from Penn State and Georgia State’s leading receiver Robert Lewis transferred in as well.
Yet this offense ranks 78th nationally in Pass Success Rate and has thrown for over 300 yards twice all season due to poor quarterback play.
The strength of the Tigers is running back Jarquez Hunter. He's averaging 107.8 yards per game and 7.2 yards per carry.
Hunter is coming off a ridiculous 278-yard performance in their win over Kentucky. He has gone over 100 yards twice this season in the Tigers' two wins over FBS teams. If the Tigers want to win this ballgame, they will need a big performance from him.
Auburn’s defense is pretty middle of the pack. The Tigers rank eighth in the SEC total defense and have been inconsistent throughout the year. The Tigers allowed nearly 500 yards and 6.4 yards per play against New Mexico yet held up against Arkansas and Oklahoma. Georgia torched them, and Missouri moved the ball pretty well before they completely shut down Kentucky.
Vanderbilt vs Auburn Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Vanderbilt and Auburn match up statistically:
Vanderbilt Offense vs. Auburn Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 75 | 44 | |
| Line Yards | 100 | 11 | |
| Pass Success | 14 | 46 | |
| Havoc | 41 | 92 | |
| Finishing Drives | 37 | 15 | |
| Quality Drives | 9 | 32 | |
Auburn Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 6 | 58 | |
| Line Yards | 16 | 37 | |
| Pass Success | 78 | 76 |  |
| Havoc | 99 | 43 | |
| Finishing Drives | 113 | 110 | |
| Quality Drives | 38 | 81 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 102 | 73 |
| PFF Coverage | 68 | 61 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 10 | 82 |
| Middle 8 | 68 | 25 |
| Seconds per Play | 31.0 (132) | 26.4 (52) |
| Rush Rate | 63% (12) | 54% (68) |
Vanderbilt vs Auburn Pick & Prediction
Vanderbilt has done nothing but overperform expectations this season. The Commodores are 6-2 against the spread and 5-0 as an underdog, with three outright upsets.
This matchup sets up nicely for Vandy to keep it close. Their biggest weakness this season has been defending the pass. In their three losses, they allowed eight touchdowns through the air, while in their five wins, they gave up just five touchdown passes.
Auburn has struggled to move the ball through the air consistently, and Thorne ranks eighth among SEC quarterbacks in big-time throws. He has thrown just two touchdowns in the last three games. The Tigers need to rely on their run game, and Vanderbilt has been much better at defending the run.
Offensively, Vandy is averaging 32 points per game and has done a terrific job with this RPO attack under Pavia. The Commodores consistently move the ball down the field and don’t beat themselves.
They are excellent at protecting the football, totaling just five turnovers all season, the sixth fewest in the country. Vanderbilt wants to establish the run, which is what they lean on, but when Pavia throws the ball, they rank in the top 15 nationally in Pass Success Rate.
Auburn has a mediocre defense that doesn’t create Havoc and doesn’t force turnovers.
Finally, Vanderbilt has the biggest X-factor in this game. It isn’t Diego Pavia. It Isn’t Clark Lea.
It is 63-year-old Jerry Kill.
In the past two seasons, Kill took his New Mexico State Aggies on the road to play a much more talented Hugh Freeze team as significant underdogs.
In 2022, New Mexico State was a 24.5-point underdog at Liberty and won 49-14. Then last year, it was a 31-10 win as 26-point underdogs at Auburn.
Now, Kill is a chief consultant to the head coach and senior offensive advisor for Vanderbilt and will look to apply his secret sauce against Freeze once again.
Take the points with Diego Diego and the Commodores.
Pick: Vanderbilt +7 or Better
Vanderbilt vs Auburn Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How to Watch
| Location: | Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 2 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12:45 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | SEC Network |
Vanderbilt vs Auburn will be played at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Alabama, on Saturday, Nov. 2 at 12:45 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on SEC Network.
