Villanova Wildcats vs South Dakota State Jackrabbits Odds
| Villanova Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+20.5 -115 | 45.5 -115o / -115u | +950 |
| South Dakota State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-20.5 -115 | 45.5 -115o / -115u | -3000 |
South Dakota State opened the season as the nation's No. 1 team in both the FCS Stats Perform and USA Today Coaches polls.
It rewarded that faith by steaming out to an 11-0 regular season that featured six wins over Top 25 opponents. It laid waste to those ranked opponents with an average margin of victory of 22 points.
And in the second round of the FCS Playoffs, the Jackrabbits obliterated Mercer, 41-0.
They enter this game in the top 10 in both scoring offense and defense and have a seasoned field general as their QB1. Mark Gronowski has accounted for 81 total touchdowns in his career and has played highly efficient football over the past month with a completion percentage of 67.4% and only one turnover.
Villanova's path to the FCS Playoffs wasn't as secure throughout the season.
After a 3-2 start that included a 21-point road loss to Albany, Villanova knew it would likely need to win out to assure itself a place in the 24-team field.
The Wildcats did just that.
They reeled off six straight wins to close the regular season, capping it off with a 35-7 beatdown of No. 7 Delaware on the road. Winning the Battle of the Blue, which dates back to 1895, has given Nova some swagger.
It took that momentum and dropped 45 points on Youngstown State in the first round of the FCS Playoffs last Saturday. It was the Cats' largest postseason scoring outburst in 13 years.
Will the Wildcats' red-hot offense be enough to break the SDSU defense, or will the Jackrabbits' dominant running game (6.4 YPC, second) play keep-away for four quarters?
It's time to dive into the Villanova vs. South Dakota State odds and find a pick for Saturday's FCS quarterfinal matchup.
Villanova Wildcats
While the Villanova offense has taken flight since late October, averaging 41.2 points per game over its last five, its defense needs some respect.
The Wildcats' front seven has improved throughout the season and now ranks top-20 against the run. That's good news against a South Dakota State rushing attack that chips away at opponents until the dam opens up, usually in the second half.
The Jacks just ran for 346 yards and four rushing touchdowns against Mercer last week, and the Bears entered as a top-25 run defense. That could be an ominous sign ahead of this game.
What concerns me about Villanova's defense is that it doesn't specialize in generating negative plays, racking up only six tackles for loss per game.
Despite that, it's gotten off the field on third downs with regularity (11th), something that will be critical against the methodical drives that have become SDSU's calling card.
South Dakota State ran 31 plays on its first three drives against Mercer, converting four third downs and one fourth down. It paid off those three drives with two touchdowns and a field goal.
The Jacks have far and away the best third-down offense in the country, and if Villanova allows them to stay ahead of the sticks, I foresee a similar outcome in Brookings on Saturday.
If Villanova has to play catch-up, I'm not sure quarterback Connor Watkins is well-positioned to put the Cats on his back. He's thrown more than 25 pass attempts just twice this season, and when SDSU smells blood in the water, it forces quarterbacks into turnover-worthy throws.
The Jackrabbits are active in the secondary, ranking 20th in passing efficiency defense while picking off 14 passes on the year.
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Everywhere you look, you'll find SDSU at the top of an efficiency metric. The Jacks lead the country in passing efficiency, third-down efficiency, red-zone scoring and red-zone defense.
What that boils down to is this: They execute in key down-and-distance situations, punch it in when they're in the red zone and make life difficult on opponents when they're knocking on the door.
Toss in their burgeoning home-field advantage at Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium, along with super gusty conditions on Saturday (gusts over 40 MPH), and I don't see how Villanova spurs the upset as a three-touchdown underdog.
What I do see is a ground-and-pound game plan from the Jacks and the under emerging as the best bet on the board.
South Dakota State has given up 20-plus points just twice in its last 15 home games dating back to September of last season. Without an elite quarterback or exotic scheme to throw the Jackrabbits off, I don't see that changing in Brookings on Saturday.
Villanova vs South Dakota State
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is simply a bad matchup for Villanova, and the weather forecast isn't helping. What those inclement conditions will help is the under, and I'd like to tack the Jacks ML onto that play to flip this from a -115 under to even money.
I would also consider playing the first-half under 23 as both teams acclimate to wind gusts that will likely ground any and all pass attempts beyond 10 yards.
Look for both passers' ADOTs to be cut in half in this one.
Pick: South Dakota State ML & Under 48.5 Parlay (+100)
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