Washington vs Michigan Pick, Prediction & Odds | 2024 CFP National Championship Betting Preview

January 8

7:30 p.m. ET

ESPN

Washington Huskies Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+5.5 -115	56.5 -105 / -115	+185

Michigan Wolverines Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-5.5 -105	56.5 -105 / -115	-225

Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

College football will crown a true national champion in Houston, Texas, on Monday, Jan. 8.

Washington and Michigan are all too familiar with split national titles. For those new to college football, the College Football Playoff and BCS eras were preceded by multiple voting systems choosing a national champion.

Washington’s last claimed national title came after the 1992 Rose Bowl, as the Huskies blew out the Wolverines to finish undefeated. The USA Today and UPI polls both crowned head coach Don James and Washington as the national champion, while the Associated Press elected an undefeated Miami team that shut out Nebraska in the Orange Bowl.

The problem with co-national champions reared its head again a half-decade later.

Led by Lloyd Carr in 1997, Michigan concluded an undefeated campaign against seven different top-25 teams.

A Rose Bowl victory over Washington State locked up the Associated Press National Championship. Voters in the USA Today poll felt differently, however, naming a 13-0 Nebraska team led by head coach Tom Osborne as the national champion.

Several co-champions in the 1990s resulted in a new “Bowl Championship Series,” which used multiple computer polls to determine the top two teams for a single title game.

Thanks to an undefeated 2004 Auburn team that was left out of the BCS title game, a playoff would soon be in the works.

Now, the College Football Playoff has been in existence for a decade, resolving the issue of co-champions.

As the sport transitions to a 12-team playoff, Michigan and Washington will vie for the opportunity to become the final national champion in the four-team era.

How We Got Here

Washington won the Sugar Bowl in dominant fashion, never trailing Texas in the hostile environment of the Superdome.

The Huskies generated both methodical and explosive drives to own the time of possession battle while cashing in on scoring opportunities.

Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. was in full control of the Washington offense, running 53 plays from standard downs compared to just 17 attempts behind schedule.

Head coach Kalen DeBoer has transformed into a premier offensive mind in college football, as the Huskies gained 63% of available yards against a stout Longhorns defense.

A staple of a DeBoer offense is discipline, as his teams have carried one of the best ranks in Havoc Allowed throughout his time at Indiana, Fresno State and now Washington. The Huskies didn’t commit a turnover against Texas, instead posting 11 yards per play in passing attempts with six explosives through the air.

The Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line won the battle in the trenches against Texas, allowing only two quarterback hits and zero sacks on Penix.

While the offense steals the headlines, the defense has been the unsung hero during the Pac-12 Championship and Sugar Bowl runs.

Edge Bralen Trice produced a mammoth seven pressures, generating four hurries on Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers.

Defensive coordinator Chuck Morrell dialed up the blitz on early downs so Texas would need an explosive play to save an offensive possession.

The Longhorns had 11 third-down attempts and were forced to throw deep with an average distance of 9.5 yards to go.

Washington was in full control of the clock, limiting Texas to just 23 minutes of offensive possession.

Texas did have success in scoring position with 4.5 points on drives that went beyond the Washington 40-yard line, but in the end, the Horns didn’t have enough scoring opportunities.

Preceding the semifinal in New Orleans was an all-time Rose Bowl game that sent both Michigan and Alabama to overtime. Special teams and Havoc dominated the game, from muffed punts, fumbles and ultimately bad snaps from the shotgun formation.

Both the Wolverines and Crimson Tide looked rusty after a one-month layoff following their respective conference championship victories.

After a near interception early for Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy, offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore trusted his quarterback to make the biggest plays of the game.

Running back Blake Corum proved to be consistent when Michigan chose to run the ball, but his two catches out of the backfield provided 35 yards and a touchdown.

While the Wolverines won the offensive battle in Success Rate, explosives and Finishing Drives, it was the defense that earned the victory for Michigan.

The Alabama offense was choppy at best, failing to produce a single methodical drive and just one explosive.

Quarterback Jalen Milroe had consistent issues with ball security, fumbling the ball 12 times on the season. Georgia and Texas provided the defensive blueprint to beat Alabama: lock Milroe up in the pocket and take away the deep shot.

Milroe finished with 42 scramble yards, a victory for any defense in college football. The Alabama quarterback had burned defenses all season with the deep pass, but the Wolverines limited Milroe to just a single completion over 20 yards.

Michigan produced six sacks for 49 yards, resulting in an average third-down distance of 10.2 yards for the Tide.

Ultimately, a bad snap by Alabama would end the game and send Michigan to the National Championship.

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Coin-Flip

While the Kentucky Derby has the starting gun, college football has the coin flip. On Monday, the captains from both sides will meet in the middle of the field at NRG Stadium with the ACC referee crew to determine who gets the ball first.

Although the exercise of calling heads or tails can seem like a non-event, Michigan or Washington will control the right to the “Middle 8.” The term derives from the final four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half.

Great coaches in college football will utilize this space to string together consecutive possessions, giving active live bettors a wagering opportunity.

DeBoer is nearly perfect in his decision-making when winning the coin toss as Washington’s head coach. The Huskies have won 15 coin flips since the start of the 2022 season, deferring to the second half in 14 games.

The lone game in which Washington won the toss and elected to receive came against Oregon in Week 11 of the 2022 season. Washington having consecutive offensive possessions has been crucial for the Huskies' ability to control the clock and put points on the board.

DeBoer ranks 32nd in “Middle 8” rankings, generating a +2.4 scoring margin during the 2023 season. Interestingly, the +2.4 scoring margin is all generated in the final four minutes of the second quarter, as Washington did not net a positive or negative point differential in the first four minutes of the third quarter.

Michigan had a higher ranking in the “Middle 8,” sitting 24th on the season with a scoring margin of +2.8. That number was split to +1.6 in the final four minutes of the second quarter to +1.2 in the first four minutes of the third quarter.

The coin-toss story is much the same when it comes to head coach Jim Harbaugh. Michigan won the toss in nine games this season and elected to defer each time.

There’s a long history of Michigan not only winning coin tosses but deferring. The last time these two head coaches met on the field, DeBoer served as Indiana’s offensive coordinator. Harbaugh won the coin toss and elected to put the Hoosiers offense with quarterback Peyton Ramsey on the field.

Interestingly enough, one of the only times Michigan ever put its offense on the field first was a 2020 loss to an Indiana team led by Michael Penix Jr.

When Michigan Has the Ball

The Michigan offense can be poetry in motion when it runs the football. Offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore elected to run the ball on 62% of snaps this season, with 32% of rushing attempts coming with eight men in the box.

The Wolverines use a variation of run concepts with an even split of 11 and 12 personnel. Inside zone, man blocking with eight in the box, counter and power concepts are all on the table.

There’s a long history of Harbaugh-coached football in college and the NFL where power run is at the top of the opposing defense’s scouting report.

Although the Wolverines struggled to create explosives on the ground throughout the season, the offense ranked top-10 nationally in staying ahead of schedule in standard downs.

Michigan was most successful when it used man blocking and power concepts in 2023, both generating at least a 59% Success Rate.

Because Michigan was so successful on early downs, the Wolverines finished fourth in FBS in Quality Drives — a stat that measures possessions that result in a score, have more than 10 plays, last longer than three minutes or cover more than 50 yards.

Statistics provided by SportSource Analytics.

Defending the rush has been a consistent issue for Washington's defense all season.

The Huskies have been healthy over the past eight quarters of football against offenses from Texas and Oregon that are capable of running the football. Both the Ducks and Longhorns ran twice as many plays in standard downs than passing downs, each averaging at least 6.2 yards per play on rushing attempts.

Washington’s defensive success came on third downs, as it allowed conversions on just 7-of-21 attempts against its past two opponents.

The Huskies have had season-long issues against the concepts Michigan wants to run. The biggest red flag for the Washington defense is defending man-blocking concepts when eight or more players are in the box, as previous opponents have created plenty of explosives on those plays.

Michigan may not run many plays in passing downs — an area where Washington's defense will have a much better chance of success.

The Huskies use man coverage on 25% of opponent passing attempts, using a split amount of quarters and Cover 3 when pivoting to zone.

When McCarthy elects to pass, Michigan uses plenty of hitches, crossers and out routes.

The hitch has been the most successful and explosive option for Michigan, while the Washington defense has been terrorized by the hitch. The Huskies give up a 35% Success Rate against the route and allow a big play on one of every five opponent attempts.

Scoring opportunities favor Michigan on the offensive side of the ball. The Wolverines rank top-10 in Finishing Drives, scoring 45 touchdowns in 55 red-zone attempts.

Michigan finished seventh nationally in red-zone touchdowns coming from the rush, so any Wolverines player capable of running the ball is a primary target for a touchdown prop.

The Washington defense folded in scoring opportunities, ranking 80th in Finishing Drives and 117th in red-zone touchdowns allowed.

The Huskies are sure to allow rushing touchdowns in the national title game after finishing 112th in red-zone rushing scores allowed.

When Washington Has the Ball

The Huskies have won two straight as underdogs because of an offense that’s performing at a National Championship level.

Similar to LSU in 2019, Washington has the ability to put the ball in any window the opposing defense leaves uncovered.

Both rushing and passing attempts finished top-10 nationally in Success Rate, led by quarterback Michael Penix Jr. The Indiana transfer finished with 40 big-time throws, recording his largest average depth of target in his career at 10.9 yards.

Penix is protected by an offensive line that won the Joe Moore Award, living up to the billing by allowing zero sacks or quarterback hits against Texas in the Sugar Bowl.

The beauty of the Huskies offense is not just elite-level play at every position, but the ability to keep defenses guessing. Washington had the third-highest rate of passing attempts on first down, generating the fifth-highest Success Rate.

There’s also a rushing aspect to the offense, as running back Dillon Johnson gets heavier usage on second-down attempts to set up the play-action pass.

DeBoer prefers heavy usage of inside zone with Johnson, generating the highest amount of success on the left side of the offensive line.

Johnson did suffer an injury in the Sugar Bowl and was spotted in a walking boot without crutches shortly after. DeBoer defused any injury concerns by stating Johnson is dealing with a season-long aggravation and will be available in Houston.

Michigan defensive coordinator Jesse Minter runs a 2-4-5 personnel that thrives against inside zone, producing a 59% Success Rate against opposing offensive attempts.

Any limitations to the running game will only create more touches for Washington’s elite targets in the passing game. Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan are the deadliest trio of wide receivers in college football, each averaging at least 2.5 yards per route run.

Washington uses its receiving corps on a number of routes including hitches, outs, screens and crossing routes.

The Wolverines have seen this level of play from a target only once this season when they faced Marvin Harrison Jr. of Ohio State.

Harrison’s most explosive route on the season was the hitch, similar to what the Wolverines will see from Odunze, Polk and McMillan in the title game. However, Michigan limited Ohio State’s biggest weapon to just five catches on nine targets.

Penix has dominated every coverage look presented over the season, while Michigan utilizes Cover 3 and quarters heavily in 2023.

Odunze, Polk and McMillan all rank in the top 100 in PFF grading against zone coverage. Conversely, Michigan has several defensive backs in the top 100 of zone coverage grading, including Josh Wallace, Mike Sainristil, Rod Moore, Quinten Johnson and Will Johnson.

Michigan’s success against Washington's passing attack depends on how well it can defend the hitch while winning 50/50 balls on out routes.

The Huskies' offensive line will be challenged by a more complete defensive line from Michigan.

The Longhorns' strength came in the defensive interior, while the Wolverines have a number of edge rushers who could create pressure. Jaylen Harrell and Josaiah Stewart lead the team in pressures, while Braiden McGregor has produced 14 pressures over the past four games.

Washington will combat that unit with the best offensive tackle duo in the country in Troy Fautanu and Roger Rosengarten. The combination ranks top-eight of all tackles in individual PFF pass-block grading, allowing four quarterback hits and two sacks on a combined 1,138 snaps.

Penix has executed at a high level under pressure this season, committing just four turnover-worthy throws in 137 dropbacks. The sixth-year senior sees a 17% drop in adjusted completion percentage with a crowded pocket, using an NFL-ready arm to generate 23 throwaways.

The Sugar Bowl provided a glimpse into a younger version of Penix in terms of leaving the pocket.

The quarterback has suffered multiple ACL tears throughout his playing days.

Still, Penix accumulated more than 100 rushing yards in the 2019 and 2022 seasons, a missing component in 2023.

The Texas defensive front was caught off guard, as Penix logged two designed runs and a scramble for 30 yards. The quarterback nearly doubled his season total from 44 to 74 rushing yards on the season.

If Michigan has success creating pressure from the edge positions, offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb may call for a Penix keeper over right guard Julius Buelow.

Washington vs. Michigan Special Teams

Despite a number of miscues in the Rose Bowl, Michigan has one of the highest-ranking special teams units in the nation, per SP+. Washington falls at 47th in the latest ratings, but there are differences in specific areas.

Washington and Michigan each rank top-20 in average starting field position after kickoff, both offensively and defensively. Neither team falls in the top 40 in terms of punt efficiency, a non-factor for two offenses that have plenty of success with sustaining Quality Drives.

Michigan has the advantage in punt return efficiency, although the job was handed to Semaj Morgan at the Big Ten Championship game against Iowa. A muffed return against Alabama in the Rose Bowl may give the duties back to Tyler Morris.

Michigan’s kicking duties belong to James Turner, who hit all but one of 62 point-after attempts and 16-of-19 field goals. The Louisville transfer has been successful from long distance this season, connecting on six of his nine attempts from 40 yards and beyond this season.

Washington's kicks will be handled by Grady Gross, who connected on all 62 point-after attempts and 16-of-20 field goals on the season. The freshman hit 6-of-7 from the 40-yard range but has not attempted a field goal of 50 yards or longer this season.

Gross will be in the record books for the Huskies after hitting the game-winning field goal against Washington State in the Apple Cup.

Field Conditions at NRG Stadium

Construction for NRG Stadium began in the year 2000, opening in August 2002 for the NFL’s Houston Texans.

Since its opening, the complex has hosted the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo, CONCACAF Gold Cup matches for soccer, WrestleMania 25 and multiple Final Four events. The Texas Bowl has been played in this stadium since 2006, but no game has featured Michigan or any Pac-12 football team.

Officials of NRG Stadium elected to change the surface to Matrix Turf, installed by Hellas Construction.

If that sounds familiar to any readers of my annual National Championship preview, Matrix Turf also resides at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, where Georgia and TCU met for the national title last season.

Just as NFL unders have hit more often at SoFi, the same can be said for NRG Stadium since the installation of Matrix Turf.

There have been five FBS football games in NRG Stadium since the installation of the Matrix Turf, and they’ve gone 3-2 to the under during that time.

In the history of the Texas Bowl, there have been 932 points scored in 17 games, adding up to an average of 55 points per game.

The results of NFL totals on Matrix Turf in SoFi Stadium and NRG Stadium may indicate value on the under, but the lengthy history of college football in this building suggests the final score will land on the most valuable key number for college football totals.

National Championship Officiating Crew

Who could forget one of the more memorable First Responders Bowls featuring Texas State and Rice in 2023?

The Bobcats and Owls combined for 18 penalties for a grand total of 177 yards courtesy of a Conference USA officiating crew. Head referee Ed Ardito was the busiest man in college football, alienating both sides of the ball with every penalty in the book.

The result of the First Responders Bowl is not a shock, as Ardito’s 2.33 personal fouls per game led all Power 5 head referees.

Enter ACC head official and National Championship head referee Marcus Woods, who ranks a close second place at 2.25 personal fouls per game.

Woods’ crew threw 168 flags this season, averaging 14 per game. There’s diversity among the laundry dropped on the field, with heavy violations called for false start, holding, pass interference and personal fouls.

Woods not only trumps any officiating crew in calling personal fouls, but defensive pass interference is a staple of the games called under his watch.

The head referee averages two defensive pass interference calls per game, well above the average of any other ACC crew.

Knowing that penalties will play a factor in the national title game, the question remains if either team will benefit from Woods’ tendencies.

The two teams are polar opposites in terms of penalties, with Michigan being the much more zebra-friendly team.

The Wolverines rank second in penalties this season, committing just 40 at an average of 26.2 yards per game. Washington was penalized heavily in 2023, averaging 7.6 for 71.4 yards per game.

Michigan was flagged for four personal fouls during the season, lower than the 10 committed by Washington.

The biggest area where Woods’ crew could affect the game is defensive pass interference, especially with the Huskies' heavy tendencies to air out the ball. The Wolverines were flagged for pass interference on only two instances the entire season, as Southern Miss was the only other FBS team to commit fewer PI penalties.

The referee crew may have flags prepared for the Washington secondary, as the Huskies received 17 defensive pass interference calls this season, tied with Liberty as the most in college football.

Washington vs. Michigan

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Washington and Michigan match up statistically:

Washington Offense vs. Michigan Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	7	8
Line Yards	52	8
Pass Success	6	8
Havoc	30	10
Finishing Drives	14	2
Quality Drives	17	2

Michigan Offense vs. Washington Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	45	129
Line Yards	58	132
Pass Success	2	18
Havoc	1	115
Finishing Drives	10	80
Quality Drives	4	45

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	102	2
PFF Coverage	24	1
Special Teams SP+	46	4
Middle 8	23	24
Seconds per Play	27.7 (80)	31.4 (131)
Rush Rate	42.2% (122)	61.7% (14)

Washington vs. Michigan Betting Picks & Predictions

There are no expectations that the Washington defense will be able to contain Michigan’s ground attack.

Corum’s explosiveness is no longer a part of his rushing attempts, but the Wolverines' personnel and run concepts create exposure. Michigan is elite at using pre-snap motion, additional tight ends and pulling weakside linemen to propel Corum to the second level.

The senior has accounted for 71 first downs and 25 rushing touchdowns, recording a rushing score in every game this season.

Oddsmakers have opened Corum for an anytime touchdown at -320, a number that might not have a ceiling considering Washington ranks 112th in red-zone rushing touchdowns allowed.

The usage of Corum extends beyond the first drives, as he has scored at least two rushing touchdowns in nine of his 14 games. That small sample gives true odds of 57% that Corum will rush for multiple scores.

Corum to score two-plus rushing touchdowns can be found at +150, which is playable to -130.

The prop market is heavily weighted for Corum after he scored the first Michigan touchdown in 11-of-14 games. The remaining first touchdowns belong to a defensive score by Will Johnson against Minnesota and a pair of Roman Wilson catches against East Carolina and Nebraska. Those scores happened in the first half of the season, so the beginning of November could be a better reference.

Michigan has given Corum 13 red-zone attempts on the first drive in the previous five games, going back to Penn State. The only other players to receive a red-zone attempt on the first scoring drive are Semaj Morgan against Alabama and two separate rushing attempts by Donovan Edwards against Penn State and Maryland.

Touchdown props for Washington will be a complete crapshoot.

The Huskies offense has been in high gear since the Pac-12 Championship, giving nearly every skill position a touch in the red zone.

Running back Dillon Johnson was responsible for five of the first touchdown scores in 14 games this season, including the previous three games dating back to Washington State.
Other first touchdown scorers include tight end Jack Westover, Penix and receivers Giles Jackson and Germie Bernard.

If there’s a spot to take a longshot prop, first Washington touchdown score would be the landing spot.

With Johnson’s full health in question and the renewed designed rushing attempts for Penix, look to split a unit on both Penix and Bernard to score the first Washington touchdown. Not only has each option had recent red-zone attempts, but both are listed at odds better than +1300.

After not throwing an interception since Week 4, McCarthy started off the Rose Bowl with a near pick from the Crimson Tide. Moore, Michigan’s offensive coordinator, immediately limited the number of passing attempts for Michigan, as well as the location where McCarthy could throw the ball.

McCarthy would go on to make only a couple of throws between the hashes for the remainder of the game, opting for comeback routes on the sidelines to avoid Alabama’s two shutdown cornerbacks.

The Wolverines are expected to go light on passing attempts in the national title game, especially considering their advantages on the ground.

Michigan will make every attempt to keep McCarthy out of the crosshairs of Huskies edge Bralen Trice. Keep in mind that Michigan did not even attempt a pass in the second half against Penn State because of its success with the run.

With that said, take the “No” on a McCarthy Interception priced at -135.

Although rushing props on Penix will be limited, there’s a reason to place a wager on the quarterback if they’re posted.

The Washington signal-caller is averaging 5.3 yards rushing per game and should face the most pressure he has this season. Penix has been elite in dodging sacks while attempting eight designed rushing attempts over the past three games.

Quarterback runs are in the playbook of Grubb, Washington’s OC, and will very much be an option with Michigan’s highly-touted pass-rushers on the other side.

Shops are expected to see steam on the over leading up to kickoff, with our buying point running through 11.5 rushing yards.

Michigan will have no resistance in running the ball on the Washington defense. Both Texas and Oregon found plenty of success on the ground but failed to convert third downs and committed key turnovers.

There’s an argument to be made that the Wolverines made uncharacteristic mistakes in the Rose Bowl after a one-month layoff. Michigan not only ranks as one of the most disciplined offenses in Havoc Allowed, but Harbaugh’s team is also the second-least penalized team in the country.

Despite a lack of explosives, Michigan will control the time of possession and create more scoring opportunities. With Washington unable to answer in the trench from a Line Yards and Stuff Rate perspective, the Michigan spread is the side. Many shops are offering minimal juice on -4.5 as of writing, as Michigan -4 at -115 is the buying point on the side.

The total is hovering just over the largest key in totals at 55.5. From our section on the referee assignment, there’s every reason to believe drives will be extended thanks to personal fouls and defensive pass interference calls.

Washington attempts more passes on first down than just about any team in college football. Ultimately, the Huskies’ skill-position players against the Wolverines’ secondary is a battle of 50-50 balls. Expect the officials to meet their average of 14 penalties per game, spotting plenty of free yards and scoring opportunities.

Washington will do its part to keep up with Michigan to eclipse the posted total. Because 55 is the biggest key number in college football totals, I’d suggest buying to 55 at -120 juice.

National Championship Picks

• Blake Corum to Score 2+ TDs (+150 · Play to -130)
• Germie Bernard 1st Washington TD (+1300)
• Michael Penix Jr. 1st Washington TD (+1400)
• J.J. McCarthy Under 0.5 Interceptions (-135)
• Michael Penix Jr. Over 11.5 Rushing Yards or Better
• Michigan -4 (-115) or Better
• Over 55 (-120) or Better

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