For the sixth straight season on our college football betting podcast, Big Bets on Campus, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
We've had two donuts in a row, although Collin took another great shot on a larger underdog that had a real chance, while I whiffed on Middle Tennessee, which came up with no points in the red zone on its final two drives in a six-point loss. We've essentially pushed money back and forth for 10 weeks, so it's time to hit the reset button and finish strong.
- 2018-22: 60-98, +8.3 units
- 2023: 7-13, +0.05 units
- Overall: 67-109, +8.35 units
This week, we're both rolling with pups in the mid-afternoon slate. While I'm going with a short home dog, Collin is taking another big stab after giving it a strong go with the same approach over the two previous Saturdays.
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pays around 8.5-1 odds.
Stuckey: UCF +115
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 65.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 65.5 -110o / -110u | +118 |
The Oklahoma State Cowboys have completely turned around their season following the bye week.
The same team that got blown out in Stillwater by South Alabama has now won and covered five straight to shockingly control its own destiny for a Big 12 Championship.
It all changed when head coach Mike Gundy stuck with one quarterback in Alan Bowman and started feeding dynamic running back Ollie Gordon II.
The Cowboys also altered their run-blocking scheme and got healthier along the offensive line. Gordon's explosion has also led to success in the passing game via play-action despite an underwhelming group of wide receivers.
With all of that said, I feel comfortable fading the Cowboys at what I believe is likely their high point in the market in a game I essentially make a coin-flip.
There's also enormous letdown risk after as emotional of a win as you'll see against Oklahoma in the final edition of Bedlam.
Additionally, I still have questions about the Oklahoma State defense, which has holes outside of a very good linebacker duo.
The Cowboys have simply been getting every single break of late. During this five-game winning streak, their opponents have gone 1-for-12 on fourth-down conversion attempts and have a -8 turnover margin (13-5 turnover edge for Oklahoma State).
Oklahoma State has also benefited from a couple of defensive scores, numerous short fields and a highly questionable third-down pass interference call against Oklahoma.
Regression certainly looms for Gundy's bunch.
While this may represent the peak of the market on the Cowboys, the Knights may still be a bit undervalued after having to make do without starting quarterback John Rhys Plumlee for a stretch in which they went 1-4, including an epic meltdown in a one-point loss against Baylor.
Plumlee returned after the bye in a two-point road loss to Oklahoma and now looks all the way back to full health. His legs should make all the difference here.
While I'm a bit concerned about Gordon going against the penetrable UCF run defense, this spot is too good to pass up at this price with the Knights as a home 'dog.
Pick: UCF ML +115
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Wilson: Florida International +340
| FIU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +340 |
| Middle Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -465 |
Florida International will come out of a bye week with maximum motivation, as it still has a chance to reach its first bowl since 2019.
The four-win Panthers end their season against Arkansas and Western Kentucky, making this trip to Murfreesboro essentially a must-win.
History is on the side of the underdog in these situational spots — November underdogs off a bye week against teams on a losing streak have gone 91-55-4 (62%) since 2005, per Action Labs.
Enter Middle Tennessee, a Conference USA team with just two wins that has dropped two straight. The Blue Raiders took the loss in Week 10 to New Mexico State, as they were unable to convert scoring opportunities to points.
Head coach Rick Stockstill's team generated a 62% Success Rate in running the ball, but failed to produce any traction in passing attempts or passing downs. That won't play against a Florida International defense that's much more efficient against the run, ranking in the top half of FBS teams in Defensive Rush Success and Stuff Rate.
Offensively, the Golden Panthers will use both quarterbacks in Grayson James and Keyone Jenkins to find a spark. James threw for 200 yards in relief of Jenkins in their previous game against Jacksonville State. One, if not both, should find some success against a bad MTSU stop unit.
Additionally, Middle Tennessee ranks just 113th in creating pressure, so either quarterback should have adequate time to develop plays.
With plenty of rest and two weeks of preparation, look for a highly motivated Florida International group to have a very good shot of avenging last year's heartbreaking season-ending loss to Middle Tennessee.
Pick: FIU ML +340
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