We continue the college football Week 2 slate with predictions and three Saturday night betting spots, featuring Utah State vs. USC.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 2, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 0-0
Week 2 College Football Picks: Saturday Night Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | NC State +7.5 |
  | 10:30 p.m. | Oregon -18 |
  | 11 p.m. | Utah State +28.5 |
NC State +7.5 vs. Tennessee
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
For what it's worth, this game will take place in Charlotte, not on the Wolfpack's home turf. I'll be curious to see the crowd (Knoxville is about an hour further than Raleigh), but I'd guess it'll be pretty close to split.
Prior to the season, I projected this game around Tennessee -4.
Yes, I downgraded the Wolfpack and upgraded the Volunteers a bit after their Week 1 performances, as Tennessee absolutely destroyed Chattanooga while NC State struggled at home against Western Carolina.
However, those are just one week of results (in the opener no less) against FCS opponents. I can't overreact too much, especially with NC State breaking in a number of new pieces, including quarterback Grayson McCall.
I also think the Wolfpack got caught looking ahead a bit to one of their biggest nonconference games in recent memory against a hungrier in-state FCS opponent.
As a result of those two performances, the market sits over a touchdown, which is all I was looking for here.
Admittedly, former five-star quarterback Nico Iamaleava is the real deal, and I may be undervaluing just how good he already is at this stage of his career.
If that's the case, NC State could struggle to keep up even with a much-improved offense that upgraded at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end to go along with four returning starters along the offensive line, plus Notre Dame transfer Zeke Correll at center.
While that front didn't allow a single pressure in pass protection in the opener, they have to be much better in run blocking to set up the RPO game for McCall against a very good Tennessee defensive front, led by James Pearce Jr.
That's what I'll be keyed in on early in this one since NC State will need to find success on early downs in order to fully take advantage of an extremely vulnerable Tennessee secondary that lost all six of its snap count leaders from 2023 (three on NFL rosters and three on other P4 teams).
If NC State's O-line fails to generate a push, it may lead to too many failed drives.
And there's only so much Tony Gibson can do schematically to hold Tennessee's explosive offense in check with a defense I believe will take a slight step back without the services of do-everything linebacker Payton Wilson.
The significant drop-off from Wilson to Jayland Parker — who blew multiple assignments — jumped off the screen in the opener.
However, it's worth noting that original starter Caden Fordham got ejected for targeting on the first drive of the game after dropping a pick-six on the first play from scrimmage. Additionally, stud cornerback Aydan White actually dropped one the very next play.
Losing the MIKE in Gibson's defense is pretty important to the overall communication on that side of the ball.
Nickel is the other most important position in Gibson's stop unit, and NC State didn't have the services of Ja'Had Carter — a multiple-year starter who transferred in after previous stops in Syracuse and Ohio State. He should return this week with the first-team unit.
However, the Wolfpack will still have to make do without stud safety Devan Boykin, who's out for at least a month.
It has always been tricky in Week 2 to determine whether or not to overreact or underreact to performances in Week 1. In this case, I'm not going to overreact too much to NC State's lackluster effort against Western Carolina.
McCall missed a number of wide-open throws he usually makes, the defense dropped a couple of interceptions and the offense had a touchdown called back on a penalty — all while missing two defensive starters and breaking in a number of new transfers and potentially looking ahead to this week.
There were certainly some concerning things to keep an eye on to see if they persist, but I expect McCall to fare better in his second game of this offense and the defense to blow fewer assignments with two starters back in the mix and a number of transfers who got their feet wet in a new scheme.
When firing on all cylinders, Gibson's defense can really confuse inexperienced quarterbacks, which could lead to a critical mistake or two — something the veteran McCall usually avoids.
There's a chance I'm underestimating this Tennessee offense, but I had to take over a touchdown on principle.
Pick: NC State +7.5 or Better
Oregon -18 vs. Boise State
10:30 p.m. ET ⋅ Peacock
One of the more shocking surface results of last week was Oregon barely pulling out a victory at home as a 44-point favorite over FCS Idaho. I couldn't believe the Ducks only led by three late in the second half, forcing me to flip it on at one point.
However, the Ducks still clearly dominated statistically:
- First Downs: 31-10
- Total Yards: 487-217
- Time of Possession: 39:15-20:45
It was just an odd all-around game with the Ducks failing to convert multiple fourth downs, giving up trick-play touchdowns and suffering from a plethora of ill-timed penalties.
It definitely wasn't a clean effort for Oregon, which also saw a shaky performance from its offensive line. However, it's worth noting that walk-on Charlie Pickard started at center with projected starting right guard Matthew Bedford sitting out.
Head coach Dan Lanning did sound optimistic that Bedford would return this week, which should bolster the interior.
I'd also expect both star tackles to perform better in their second live game since swapping positions this season — although maybe it turns out Ajani Cornelius is just much better suited for the right side.
For what it's worth, wide receiver Gary Bryant Jr. should also return this week.
While I clearly didn't come away overwhelmed by Oregon's performance against the Vandals, I'm not going to overreact too much.
Ultimately, I believe we're actually getting the Ducks at too much of a discount here in a game I projected at a spread of more than 24 points before Week 1.
I expect Lanning to use that game as a wake-up call, leading to the Ducks coming out with an inspired effort against a Boise State team that has lost on the road against P5 teams in each of the past two seasons by scores of 56-19 to Washington and 34-17 to Oregon State.
This also isn't a great situational spot for the Broncos, who will travel to Eugene for their second straight road game after playing in the heat and humidity in Statesboro in a game where its defense was on the field for 85 snaps.
That unit while experienced, remains a major issue.
Boise does boast one of the best backs in the entire country in Ashton Jeanty — who comes in fresh off an explosive 267-yard, six-touchdown performance. He'll be the entire focal point of Lanning's game plan. Contain him (easier said than done), and Oregon should bounce back with an easy victory against a bad Boise defense.
Notable Nugget
Over the past 20 seasons, the four most profitable favorites include Oklahoma State, Penn State, Ohio State and Oregon — all favorites in Week 2.
Pick: Oregon -19.5 or Better
Utah State +28.5 at USC
11 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network
I really like this USC team , as I've been higher on Miller Moss since before the bowl game last season.
I also loved all of the defensive staff and transfer portal additions on the back end, which should translate to one of the most improved units in the entire country.
However, I could see USC coming out a bit flat against Utah State after such a draining victory over LSU on Sunday night in Las Vegas.
The Trojans are on a short week now and may not be as focused on the Aggies with a bye on deck, followed by Michigan and a grueling remaining schedule.
After all, Moss said in an interview this week they basically emptied their tank in that effort against the Tigers.
Also, I actually prefer Bryson Barnes to Spencer Petras (who got hurt last week) at quarterback for Utah State, and I'm assuming he gets the start.
This is a hold-your-nose spot that I had to take once the line got over four touchdowns. I'm just banking on USC potentially coming out a bit flat and/or the Trojans taking their foot off the gas a bit early late in the game.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, no coach has cost bettors more money as a favorite of 21-plus points against FBS competition than Lincoln Riley (13-20 ATS, -24.3% ROI).
Pick: Utah State +28.5 or Better
