Just like the past two seasons, I'll share my favorite Saturday spots on each week's college football slate.
My primary goal here is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully help you make more informed wagers.
Looking ahead to this weekend, I have highlighted my six favorite Week 2 spots and concluded with thoughts on six horrific underdogs on my radar. If you get that far, reader discretion is advised.
Keep in mind the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, I still have to factor in how much value the number holds compared to my projections.
A good or bad spot may sway me one way or the other on a bet I'm on the fence for, but it's certainly more art than science.
All lines referenced are current as of the time of writing, which I bet and logged on the Action App. For your convenience, I included what number I'd play each to in case the market has moved a bit or you read this later in the week.
As we get more data points throughout the season, the breakdowns will become more in-depth from a matchup perspective. To start the season, I'm mainly looking to explain market overreactions
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: N/A
Week 2 College Football Odds & Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Syracuse +3 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Iowa State +3 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Northern Illinois +29.5 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | NC State +7.5 |
  | 10:30 p.m. | Oregon -18 |
  | 11 p.m. | Utah State +28.5 |
Syracuse +3 vs. Georgia Tech
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ACC Network
After the initial market move, Syracuse catching a field goal at home caught my attention.
Coming into the season, I was lower than the market on the Orange; hence, the reason I bet their season win total under.
I also wasn't overly impressed with their effort last week. While they should've covered every number if not for a late phantom flag, they really struggled to defend the run, allowing Northwestern transfer Anthony Tyus to amass over 200 yards on the ground on just 16 carries.
The Syracuse defenders really struggled to set the edge against the Bobcats, which is certainly a bit alarming with the vaunted Georgia Tech rushing attack up next, especially since Cuse lost star linebacker Marlowe Wax for the next six weeks to injury.
However, I'd expect Syracuse to clean up some of the issues it had up front after the first real action under a brand new staff and scheme.
Kyle McCord is undoubtedly an upgrade at quarterback for what the Orange had under center in 2023. He got away with some throws in the opener (four turnover-worthy plays) but certainly has plenty of skill-position talent to work with across the board.
It has to be noted that Georgia Tech's season-opening win over Florida State doesn't look as impressive after seeing how poor the lifeless Noles looked during Monday night's loss to Boston College.
And while Tech did cover (barely) against Georgia State, the brand-new Panthers had terrible luck all night long.
Here are some highlights from just the first 30 minutes of gameplay:
- First Drive of the Game: No points from first-and-goal from the 1-yard line
- Second Drive of the Game: Fumbled snap at own 20, leading to a GT touchdown on fourth down
- Later in First Half: Settled for a field goal after first-and-goal from the 3-yard line
- Final Minute of First Half: GT fourth-down touchdown
Despite all of that misfortune, they still trailed by just 11 at the half — and then even failed to score again late in the game after another goal-to-go situation. Three total points on 12 plays inside the 10 across three separate drives. Yes, I'm still bitter.
Don't forget the Yellow Jackets were favored by only six at home last season when Cuse — with a less talented roster than this season — started a tight end at quarterback.
Lastly, Syracuse holds a situational edge, getting to start the season with its second straight home game. Conversely, Georgia Tech will play its third overall, having gone from Ireland to Atlanta to central New York at potentially the peak of its market value.
Trending: Since taking over as interim head coach for Georgia Tech in 2022, Brent Key owns a sparkling 12-3 ATS record as an underdog but has gone just 2-5 ATS as a favorite.
Notable Nugget
Since taking over as interim head coach for Georgia Tech in 2022, Brent Key owns a sparkling 12-3 ATS record as an underdog but has gone just 2-5 ATS as a favorite.
Pick: Syracuse +3 or Better
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Iowa State +3 at Iowa
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS
I did take a field goal with Iowa State early in the week as one of the games I had circled in the 71st battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy. This game always seems to come down to the wire with eight of the past 12 meetings being decided by a one-possession margin.
However, I'm actually going to come back for some on the other side, which I'll touch on a bit.
For reference, all of my initial spots that I had circled and bet myself will always make this piece. I also wanted to share my thought process for some who may find it helpful since my ultimate goal in writing these games up is to help people potentially decide on their own whether or not to pass or play on a specific game.
Initially, this wasn't that advanced of a handicap. I just simply priced it closer to a coin-flip than a field goal in a game with an especially low total.
That certainly makes the field-goal spread more important in a matchup where points should certainly come at a premium.
You might see this week that this rivalry has amazingly gone under in 17 of the past 19 meetings. However, markets do evolve and over half (10-of-19) of those contests would have exceeded the current total of 36.5.
And while I do need to see more than one half against an FCS team before I completely buy into an Iowa offensive renaissance, it should look much more competent (and vertical) under new offensive coordinator Tim Lester.
The Hawkeyes started slow last week but exploded in the second half, aided by running back Kaleb Johnson returning from his first-half suspension.
There were definitely some promising signs with Iowa amassing the most yards in a single game in five seasons. True freshman Reece Vander Zee also caught two touchdowns — one fewer than the entire wide receiver room hauled in during the 2023 season.
As I alluded to off the top, I'm buying back part of my position with Iowa ML (Hawkeyes by 1-3 please?) for a third of my original bet after re-watching Iowa State's opener and breaking down this matchup further. That will happen occasionally in this gig.
First off, I'm very worried about the linebacker position with Will McLaughlin and now Caleb Bacon — the primary communicator and arguably Iowa State's most important defender — out for an extended period with a leg injury suffered in the opener.
I'm not too keen on the replacements, which could end up costing the Cyclones, who have some other potential lingering injuries.
Additionally, Iowa State's offense operated at its peak last season when it hit explosive plays. Well, no defense in the country excels more at limiting those on an annual basis than Phil Parker's stop unit.
As a result, I have real concerns about whether or not Iowa State can operate with adequate efficiency on a down-to-down basis.
That's exactly what plagued the Cyclones in last season's five regular-season losses, where they averaged just 15.4 points per game against some of the better defenses on their schedule.
With all of that said, this probably comes down to a fluke turnover or special teams play, which Iowa does seem to benefit from more frequently than its opponents under Kirk Ferentz.
Notable Nugget
For what it's worth, Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell has been a cash cow as an underdog of three-plus points at 31-16 ATS (66%) — the fifth most-profitable coach in our Action Labs database since 2005, trailing only Chris Creighton, Ken Niumatalolo, Matt Rhule and Bill Snyder. Interestingly enough, the first two are also underdogs of more than a field goal this week.
Pick: Iowa State +3 or Better · (Smaller Play)
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Northern Illinois +29.5 at Notre Dame
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC
Given the circumstances surrounding its super raw offensive line with six career FBS starts, Notre Dame had one of the more impressive wins of Week 1 on the road at Texas A&M.
Consequently, the Irish, who could be favored in all 11 remaining games, find themselves as significant favorites to make the College Football Playoff.
Therefore, I wouldn't be shocked if they're a little fat and happy out of the gates after such an emotional victory.
Meanwhile, a lot of these kids for NIU should be juiced up to play Notre Dame — a team that likely passed on many of NIU's regional kids on the recruiting trail.
And while not super predictive, the Huskies have at least historically demonstrated they can exceed oddsmakers' expectations as an underdog against power-conference opponents with a 20-11 ATS record (64.5%) since 2005.
Over the past three seasons alone, this senior-laden bunch pulled off road upsets over Boston College (-9) and Georgia Tech (-22) and also stayed within one possession of Kentucky as four-touchdown pups.
Plus, those Notre Dame offensive line issues haven't gone anywhere.
But, more importantly, NIU features an extremely run-heavy, slower offense, which should limit the number of possessions, making the task of covering four touchdowns a bit more arduous for the Fighting Irish.
I did have concerns about the quarterback position for NIU coming into the season, but at least Ethan Hampton fared very well in the opener — albeit against shoddy competition.
Meanwhile, the defense should be one of the better units in the MAC with an abundance of experience and returning production. They can at least provide some resistance when Notre Dame has the ball.
I hoped this line would hit 31, but it just never got there before coming back down.
I'm still OK with anything over four touchdowns in a good situational spot with a fairly low total (45.5) against a Notre Dame squad I just don't have many qualms fading as a large favorite following a physical brawl in College Station.
Notable Nugget
Following a win over a ranked opponent, favorites of more than three touchdowns playing the following week against FBS competition have gone 81-105-2 (43.5%) ATS over the past 20 seasons. This trend also applies to USC against Utah State.
Pick: Northern Illinois +28.5 or Better
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NC State +7.5 vs. Tennessee
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
For what it's worth, this game will take place in Charlotte, not on the Wolfpack's home turf. I'll be curious to see the crowd (Knoxville is about an hour further than Raleigh), but I'd guess it'll be pretty close to split.
Prior to the season, I projected this game around Tennessee -4.
Yes, I downgraded the Wolfpack and upgraded the Volunteers a bit after their Week 1 performances, as Tennessee absolutely destroyed Chattanooga while NC State struggled at home against Western Carolina.
However, those are just one week of results (in the opener no less) against FCS opponents. I can't overreact too much, especially with NC State breaking in a number of new pieces, including quarterback Grayson McCall.
I also think the Wolfpack got caught looking ahead a bit to one of their biggest nonconference games in recent memory against a hungrier in-state FCS opponent.
As a result of those two performances, the market sits over a touchdown, which is all I was looking for here.
Admittedly, former five-star quarterback Nico Iamaleava is the real deal, and I may be undervaluing just how good he already is at this stage of his career.
If that's the case, NC State could struggle to keep up even with a much-improved offense that upgraded at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end to go along with four returning starters along the offensive line, plus Notre Dame transfer Zeke Correll at center.
While that front didn't allow a single pressure in pass protection in the opener, they have to be much better in run blocking to set up the RPO game for McCall against a very good Tennessee defensive front, led by James Pearce Jr.
That's what I'll be keyed in on early in this one since NC State will need to find success on early downs in order to fully take advantage of an extremely vulnerable Tennessee secondary that lost all six of its snap count leaders from 2023 (three on NFL rosters and three on other P4 teams).
If NC State's O-line fails to generate a push, it may lead to too many failed drives.
And there's only so much Tony Gibson can do schematically to hold Tennessee's explosive offense in check with a defense I believe will take a slight step back without the services of do-everything linebacker Payton Wilson.
The significant drop-off from Wilson to Jayland Parker — who blew multiple assignments — jumped off the screen in the opener.
However, it's worth noting that original starter Caden Fordham got ejected for targeting on the first drive of the game after dropping a pick-six on the first play from scrimmage. Additionally, stud cornerback Aydan White actually dropped one the very next play.
Losing the MIKE in Gibson's defense is pretty important to the overall communication on that side of the ball.
Nickel is the other most important position in Gibson's stop unit, and NC State didn't have the services of Ja'Had Carter — a multiple-year starter who transferred in after previous stops in Syracuse and Ohio State. He should return this week with the first-team unit.
However, the Wolfpack will still have to make do without stud safety Devan Boykin, who's out for at least a month.
It has always been tricky in Week 2 to determine whether or not to overreact or underreact to performances in Week 1. In this case, I'm not going to overreact too much to NC State's lackluster effort against Western Carolina.
McCall missed a number of wide-open throws he usually makes, the defense dropped a couple of interceptions and the offense had a touchdown called back on a penalty — all while missing two defensive starters and breaking in a number of new transfers and potentially looking ahead to this week.
There were certainly some concerning things to keep an eye on to see if they persist, but I expect McCall to fare better in his second game of this offense and the defense to blow fewer assignments with two starters back in the mix and a number of transfers who got their feet wet in a new scheme.
When firing on all cylinders, Gibson's defense can really confuse inexperienced quarterbacks, which could lead to a critical mistake or two — something the veteran McCall usually avoids.
There's a chance I'm underestimating this Tennessee offense, but I had to take over a touchdown on principle.
Pick: NC State +7.5 or Better
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Oregon -18 vs. Boise State
10:30 p.m. ET ⋅ Peacock
One of the more shocking surface results of last week was Oregon barely pulling out a victory at home as a 44-point favorite over FCS Idaho. I couldn't believe the Ducks only led by three late in the second half, forcing me to flip it on at one point.
However, the Ducks still clearly dominated statistically:
- First Downs: 31-10
- Total Yards: 487-217
- Time of Possession: 39:15-20:45
It was just an odd all-around game with the Ducks failing to convert multiple fourth downs, giving up trick-play touchdowns and suffering from a plethora of ill-timed penalties.
It definitely wasn't a clean effort for Oregon, which also saw a shaky performance from its offensive line. However, it's worth noting that walk-on Charlie Pickard started at center with projected starting right guard Matthew Bedford sitting out.
Head coach Dan Lanning did sound optimistic that Bedford would return this week, which should bolster the interior.
I'd also expect both star tackles to perform better in their second live game since swapping positions this season — although maybe it turns out Ajani Cornelius is just much better suited for the right side.
For what it's worth, wide receiver Gary Bryant Jr. should also return this week.
While I clearly didn't come away overwhelmed by Oregon's performance against the Vandals, I'm not going to overreact too much.
Ultimately, I believe we're actually getting the Ducks at too much of a discount here in a game I projected at a spread of more than 24 points before Week 1.
I expect Lanning to use that game as a wake-up call, leading to the Ducks coming out with an inspired effort against a Boise State team that has lost on the road against P5 teams in each of the past two seasons by scores of 56-19 to Washington and 34-17 to Oregon State.
This also isn't a great situational spot for the Broncos, who will travel to Eugene for their second straight road game after playing in the heat and humidity in Statesboro in a game where its defense was on the field for 85 snaps.
That unit while experienced, remains a major issue.
Boise does boast one of the best backs in the entire country in Ashton Jeanty — who comes in fresh off an explosive 267-yard, six-touchdown performance. He'll be the entire focal point of Lanning's game plan. Contain him (easier said than done), and Oregon should bounce back with an easy victory against a bad Boise defense.
Notable Nugget
Over the past 20 seasons, the four most profitable favorites include Oklahoma State, Penn State, Ohio State and Oregon — all favorites in Week 2.
Pick: Oregon -19.5 or Better
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Utah State +28.5 at USC
11 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network
I really like this USC team , as I've been higher on Miller Moss since before the bowl game last season.
I also loved all of the defensive staff and transfer portal additions on the back end, which should translate to one of the most improved units in the entire country.
However, I could see USC coming out a bit flat against Utah State after such a draining victory over LSU on Sunday night in Las Vegas.
The Trojans are on a short week now and may not be as focused on the Aggies with a bye on deck, followed by Michigan and a grueling remaining schedule.
After all, Moss said in an interview this week they basically emptied their tank in that effort against the Tigers.
Also, I actually prefer Bryson Barnes to Spencer Petras (who got hurt last week) at quarterback for Utah State, and I'm assuming he gets the start.
This is a hold-your-nose spot that I had to take once the line got over four touchdowns. I'm just banking on USC potentially coming out a bit flat and/or the Trojans taking their foot off the gas a bit early late in the game.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, no coach has cost bettors more money as a favorite of 21-plus points against FBS competition than Lincoln Riley (13-20 ATS, -24.3% ROI).
Pick: Utah State +28.5 or Better
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Ugly Dog Musings
South Carolina Gamecocks
at Kentucky
South Carolina at +10 or better would intrigue me, as the market may have overreacted a bit to what we saw last week in the debut of two new quarterbacks for each team that was favored by a similar spread.
While Kentucky looked dominant in a weather-shortened 31-0 victory over Southern Miss, South Carolina needed a late comeback against Old Dominion at home despite a +3 turnover edge.
The Gamecocks' passing attack remains a major work in progress after multiple misses by quarterback LaNorris Sellers and wide receiver drops. That does give me pause against a talented Kentucky defensive front seven that should stifle most rushing attacks.
While I'd normally look under in this particular game, I'm a bit hesitant at such a low number due to Kentucky's desire to use more tempo, which we saw in the opener.
Last year, Kentucky ran an FBS-low 56 plays per game, which it wants to increase to somewhere in the ballpark of 75 under new offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan.
Kentucky does host Georgia next week, so maybe the Cats are peeking ahead just a bit, but that's likely not a huge factor in their SEC opener.
Temple Owls
at Navy
Lowly Temple catching double digits is on my radar, especially if this spread hits two touchdowns.
The Owls obviously looked horrendous last week against Oklahoma because, yes, they are horrendous — but also because Oklahoma is just in a different class. A -6 turnover margin didn't help matters either.
You'd have to think at least some positive turnover luck will eventually hit the Owls, who have forced one fewer turnover (5) over their past 15 games than they coughed up last week alone.
However, this would be more about fading a service academy as a favorite of 14-plus (historically 40% ATS) against a Temple team that did win this matchup last season by keeping the Mids' rushing attack in check.
And while Navy has tweaked its offense a bit this season, Temple will benefit from an extra day of preparation, having played on Friday.
Akron Zips
at Rutgers
Staying in the dumpster, Akron at +24 or better would be worth a look in a game with a low total against Rutgers, which once again looks to have incompetent play at the quarterback position.
I actually came away impressed with the Zips' effort against Ohio State despite losing, 52-6. Keep in mind, the Buckeyes had a +3 turnover margin and scored two defensive touchdowns. Akron actually has a fairly underrated defensive unit.
UMass Minutemen
at Toledo
Just when you thought it couldn't get any more unsightly, yes, I'm looking to buy low on UMass (with the market seemingly in sell mode after a poor home opener against EMU).
The Minutemen will play a Toledo team that had to replace all five offensive linemen and key pieces on defense, including star cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, who went in the first round of the NFL Draft.
UMass is a bad football team, but I just can't get to this number from a power ratings perspective. Still, I'd love to get 21.
I saw some potential glaring holes on both sides of the ball for the Rockets — who also have a few notable injuries, including stud defensive tackle Darius Alexander — in their opener against Duquesne.
Last week's result wasn't as bad as the final score may indicate. The Minutemen did have issues at cornerback with two new FCS transfer starters and along an offensive line that allowed six sacks, but I actually thought it got better after some reshuffling once right tackle Luke Painton left with an injury.
UMass just killed itself all day with penalties and special teams mistakes, which it obviously will have to clean up.
San Jose State Spartans
at Air Force
I'm hoping to snag San Jose State at +7 or better against Air Force, which didn't look too hot against FCS Merrimack after a complete overhaul in the offseason.
New Spartans head coach Ken Niumatalolo also has plenty of familiarity with defending the triple option and will have an extra day to prepare for the Falcons after a Friday opener.
Also, don't sleep on SJSU stud receiver Nick Nash, who will be the best player on the field.
Duquesne Dukes
at Boston College
I'm curious to see where the Duquesne number opens against Boston College, which finds itself in an absolutely classic sandwich spot after upsetting Florida State on Monday night with a trip to ranked Missouri on deck.
That results in a super short week of rest and preparation after playing in the Tallahassee humidity, which led to multiple cramps late in the game.
BC also doesn't profile as a great large favorite with its style.
Meanwhile, the Dukes have an even bigger rest and preparation edge after playing its opener against Toledo last Thursday.
