College Football Best Bets: Week 4 Evening Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:00 p.m. | |
  | 7:00 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Has it been a long day of college football so far? Are you still eager for some more college football action? Have no fear.
Our college football writers have four more NCAAF best bets to close out this Week 4 Saturday slate.
So, whether you're looking to bet on a battle for a bronze pig or a late clash between Boilermakers and Beaver, we have you covered.
Here are our four Week 4 college football best bets and Saturday night picks, including bets for Iowa vs Minnesota, Purdue vs Oregon State and more on September 21.
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Iowa vs. Minnesota Expert Pick
By Greg Waddell
I love this spot for a few reasons.
Iowa hasn’t hit the ground running.
Following a disappointing second-half meltdown two weeks ago – which resulted in a loss at home to in-state rival Iowa State – reasonable minds expected the Hawkeyes’ best against Troy a week later.
Instead, the Hawkeyes trailed at the half.
On top of that, Iowa’s new offensive coordinator is former Western Michigan head coach Tim Lester. Years ago, Lester took over for P.J. Fleck after Fleck left the job for Minnesota. Lester believed he deserved the job when Fleck was first hired.
It's safe to say that this game will be meaningful for both.
Still, Lester hasn’t thrived in his past two roles, and his Iowa offense is off to a slow start.
Meanwhile, the Gophers have looked incredible since their flukey Week 1 loss to North Carolina. Minnesota has shut out both Nevada and Rhode Island in back-to-back weeks, outscoring the two 75-0.
This will likely be a low-scoring game, and this rivalry always plays close. Last season, Minnesota won at Iowa, 12-10, on a controversial overturned punt return.
The Minnesota defense has been the best unit in this game lately, and it should control things under the lights and bring home the Floyd of Rosedale.
Pick: Minnesota ML (+120) | Play to ML (+100)
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Tulsa vs. Louisiana Tech Expert Pick
By John Feltman
Tulsa isn’t getting much respect in the market after last week, which makes sense.
However, I think the public is overvaluing the Bulldogs’ effort against NC State.
It might not be pleasant, but this is a terrific buy-low opportunity for Tulsa. I'm confident that its offense can outshine the Bulldogs.
It’s worrisome that Tulsa's secondary is a nightmare. The Golden Hurricane rank outside the top 130 nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed. They’re also 106th in Finishing Drives allowed, so opposing teams have been getting into the end zone at will once they cross the 40-yard line.
Luckily for them, the Bulldogs’ offensive metrics are stunningly ugly. Tulsa's defense could finally catch a break.
I expect a much stronger effort from Tulsa's defense this week.
I was already down on the Bulldogs entering 2024, and their offensive metrics are stunningly ugly for a team that nearly beat NC State last week.
The Bulldogs rank outside the top 100 nationally in the following offensive categories:
- Rush Success Rate
- Line Yards
- Pass Success Rate
- Havoc allowed
- Quality Drives
If you want to include the top 90, they'd also be outside that group in Finishing Drives. It's been ugly, and I’m unsure if it'll improve.
I realize they faced a typically strong Wolfpack defense last week, but they allowed 50 points to Tennessee the week prior.
Also, they only scored 25 points against Nicholls in their opener. So, why should last week be treated as an outlier?
Tulsa quarterback Kirk Francis is much better than he’s being perceived to be, and there are leaks in the Bulldogs’ defense that I think Tulsa can take advantage of.
Tulsa's offense has far more advantages than the Bulldogs, which gives me enough confidence that it can cover the number and likely win the game outright.
Pick: Tulsa +3.5 (-120) | Play to PK (-110)
- Check out Collin Wilson's full Week 4 NCAAF Betting Card
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Bowling Green vs. Texas A&M Expert Pick
By Brett Pund
In this matchup of SEC vs. MAC, I’m not expecting a moneyline upset, but I think this game will be much closer than the three-touchdown spread suggests.
First, this is a great scheduling spot for Bowling Green, which is coming off its bye.
Meanwhile, this is a big sandwich spot for Texas A&M following the win at Florida before playing Arkansas in Jerry World next week.
On the field, the one significant metric that sticks out is Finishing Drives. The Falcons rank 15th nationally on offense, while A&M ranks outside the top 95 on defense.
When the Aggies have the ball, they’re 85th nationally in converting points once they cross their opponents’ 40-yard line. The BGSU defense ranks just outside the top 50 in the metric.
You also have two teams that don’t play at breakneck tempos, so Texas A&M being held to a field goal or less at the end of a couple of long, clock-chewing drives could be the difference.
The Aggies did sneak into the top 25 this week, and I’m not sure that’s warranted for defeating a bad Florida team and failing to beat Notre Dame.
Bowling Green went into the fourth quarter at Penn State only down three, so give me all these points with the Falcons.
Pick: Bowling Green +22.5 (-110) | Play to +21.5 (-110)
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Purdue vs. Oregon State Expert Pick
There were big question marks surrounding Purdue's defensive front going into the game against Notre Dame, and the Fighting Irish ran the Boilermakers over.
Purdue's Ryan Walters coached up an excellent run defense last year, but he's now relying on transfers at the point of attack. Notre Dame lit up the Boilers front seven for 364 yards at 8.5 yards per carry.
Oregon State has run the ball on 55% of its offensive plays this year. Essentially, nothing has changed with new offensive coordinator Ryan Gunderson in charge.
The Beavers have overhauled their defensive roster, but they've been rather efficient in the early going.
Even with a new offensive line, the team still ranks in the top 20 nationally in Line Yards and Stuff Rate allowed, which is paramount for a rush-first unit.
Offensively, the Boilermakers should find more success against the Beavers after getting shut down by Notre Dame last week.
Oregon State returned just one starter from last year's defense, and the unit has struggled early in the season. Oregon scored 49 points against the Beavers because it averaged 7.5 yards per carry.
It's hard to find bright spots from Purdue's 66-7 loss to the Fighting Irish, but running back Reggie Love III earned 6.1 yards per carry.
In addition, Purdue has an experienced offensive line that returns four starters from last season, including 165 career collegiate starts.
Through three games, Oregon State ranks 124th in EPA per Rush allowed and 98th in Rush Success Rate allowed. Purdue should be able to consistently move the ball on the ground this Saturday.
I think 50 points is too low for two offenses with major advantages against defenses that got run all over last week.
Pick: Over 49.5 (-112) | Play to 52 (-110)
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