After one of the best college football slates of the past decade, Week 5 slows down a little bit.
There are a few solid matchups with LSU heading to Oxford to take on Ole Miss and Notre Dame battling undefeated Duke, but it's nothing like last weekend. However, that doesn't mean there isn't betting value.
In fact, there are a couple of games I see early-week value in.
The market clearly moves a lot over the course of the week. Money pours from the time lines open until kickoff on Saturday. Like any other sport, it's paramount to get the best price possible when betting on college football.
For example, a -6.5 favorite could move to -7.5 on Saturday morning, and then you run the risk of that team winning by one of the most likely outcomes — a seven-point victory — and you just lost your bet. It happens every week.
But that mess could have been avoided if the bet was locked in at -6.5 on Monday morning.
I'm here to help you navigate the market by providing a few lines I'm buying right now — or other lines that I'm waiting to buy later in the week.
The hope for this piece is to beat the market, get the best price possible, and in the long run, save you some money with closing line value. To do that, we'll utilize our Action Network PRO projections, ESPN's SP+ and my own projections to create a consensus.
You hear all the time, "Process over results." The best way to know if the process is working is by closing line value (CLV), meaning how many points did you beat the closing line by? Well, I'm here to help you hopefully get the most CLV possible early on in the week so you're sitting in a great position by the time we reach Saturday.
Boise State vs. Memphis Odds
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -108 | 60.5 -109o / -112u | -104 |
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -113 | 60.5 -109o / -112u | -117 |
Boise State vs. Memphis Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Memphis -3.1 | Memphis -8.4 | Memphis -7.2 |
Seth Henigan is back for this third season as Memphis' starting quarterback, and he's been improving each year. He shined bright with a PFF passing grade of 80.6 last season, but he had the worst game of his collegiate career last week against Missouri.
Henigan posted an unreal six turnover-worthy plays against the Tigers after recording only 14 all of last season.
Even with that bad game, Henigan is one of the best passers in college football when he has time to throw. With a clean pocket last year, he put up a PFF passing grade of 90.0 and averaged 8.2 yards per attempt with an adjusted completion percentage of 77.7%.
He's been under pressure on just 27.4% of his dropbacks this season, and the Broncos have been one of the worst teams in the country at getting to the quarterback, ranking 119th in pass-rush grade and 116th in sack percentage.
Boise State picked up its second win of the season after outlasting San Diego State last Friday, but its defense has been dreadful so far this year. The Broncos are allowing 8.0 yards per play, which ranks 132nd of the 133 FBS teams.
They haven't done a good job of stopping the run, but their secondary has actually been their biggest weakness. Boise has allowed 11.6 yards per attempt while ranking 101st in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 100th in EPA/Pass Allowed.
The Broncos offense has been pretty effective, but they haven't fared well when they've had to face decent defenses. They failed to score over 20 points against Washington and UCF even though they averaged 5.5 yards per play in those games.
Part of that has been their quarterback play.
Taylen Green is a fantastic running quarterback who averages 6.3 yards per carry and has recorded 26 runs over 10 yards dating back to the start of last season.
But the problem with Green is he's very limited as a passer.
His PFF passing grade sits at just 56.8 this season, and he's averaging only 6.7 yards per attempt and has made six turnover-worthy plays.
Memphis literally has the best secondary in the country through Week 4, ranking first in Passing Success Rate Allowed, passing explosiveness allowed and EPA/Pass Allowed.
So, that means that Boise State is most likely going to become one-dimensional in this game, and Memphis is still top-50 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and EPA/Rush Allowed.
All three projection models are showing value on Memphis, and there's still a -1 out there, as of writing, at BetRivers.
Coastal Carolina vs. Georgia Southern Odds
| Coastal Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | +185 |
| Georgia Southern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
Coastal Carolina vs. Georgia Southern Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Georgia Southern -2.1 | Georgia Southern -1.2 | Georgia Southern -2.3 |
Coastal Carolina had a bad showing on national television last Thursday, losing to Georgia State at home, 30-17.
There have been some growing pains for Grayson McCall as he's made the switch from Jamey Chadwell's spread option to Tim Beck's offense. Under Chadwell, Coastal ran the ball on 57% of its offensive plays. Well, now the Chanticleers are throwing it 54% of the time.
With how often Coastal ran the ball in the past, McCall was one of the most efficient passers in the country, putting up gaudy numbers in yards per attempt and passing grades. Those numbers have dipped since he started throwing the ball more, but he's still averaging 7.8 yards per attempt and has an above-average PFF passing grade of 77.6.
Meanwhile, the Georgia Southern secondary has been below average this season, ranking outside the top 75 in Passing Success Rate Allowed and EPA/Pass Allowed while also giving up 7.7 yards per attempt.
Its offense is a different story, though.
Georgia Southern has put up fantastic offensive numbers in Clay Helton's second year as head coach, ranking top-2o nationally in both Passing and Rushing Success Rate.
That's all fine and wonderful, but the Eagles have one big problem — they haven't taken advantage of their scoring opportunities. We all know by now that Finishing Drives — how many points a team scores on drives that cross their opponent's 40-yard line — is the biggest statistical indicator as to whether or not teams cover the spread.
Well, Georgia Southern averages only 3.8 points per scoring opportunity, good for 72nd in FBS. And although Coastal has given up yards and struggles to stop the run, it's allowing only 2.0 points per scoring opportunity to rank eighth in the nation in that area.
The market is naturally high on Georgia Southern after its 40-3 blowout of Ball State and low on Coastal after its nationally-televised home loss.
So, with two extra days of rest and preparation, it's a good time to buy low on the Chanticleers at +7 — and all three projection models agree.
