We continue the NCAAF Week 5 slate with odds, picks and five Saturday evening betting spots for SMU vs. Charlotte, Ole Miss vs. LSU and more.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 5, here's the full piece.
- 2022: 45-20-1 +22.82 units (69.2%)
- 2023: 14-10-0 +2.88 units (58.3%)
- Overall: 59-30-1 +25.70 units (66.3%)
Stuckey's 5 Evening NCAAF Situational Spots
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6 p.m. | Ole Miss +3 |
  | 7 p.m. | Southern Miss +5.5 |
  | 7 p.m. | Troy +1.5 |
  | 7 p.m. | Iowa State +20 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | SMU -23 |
Ole Miss +3 vs. LSU
6 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
I thought LSU came into the season extremely overvalued after a fairly fortunate 2022 campaign that could have looked a lot worse with just a few bounces the other way.
As a result, I'm still lower than the market on the Tigers, who beat up Grambling (who cares?) and a bad Mississippi State team I'm down on.
In their other two games, they failed to live up to oddsmakers' expectations, failing to cover by over two touchdowns against both Arkansas and Florida State.
The primary problem for the Tigers has come on defense, the biggest question mark coming into the season.
I had major concerns about the secondary, which has struggled, but even I didn't expect the entire unit to play this poorly over the first month of the season. After four games, the LSU defense ranks outside the top 100 in Success Rate and in the bottom 10 nationally in Passing Downs Success Rate and explosiveness.
That's not an ideal combination against a Lane Kiffin offense.
In fairness, the Ole Miss offense has not looked that crisp at times, but I believe a lot of that has to do with the injuries. It has basically played most of the season without three key pass-catchers in Tre Harris, Zakhari Franklin and Caden Prieskorn.
However, all three actually saw action in last week's game against Alabama despite being listed as doubtful. That's a very good sign heading into this matchup.
Plus, explosive running back Quinshon Judkins — the engine that makes the car go — has been banged up but hinted he may finally be back to full strength this week. Those are massive additions for an offense that still ranks in the top 10 nationally in explosiveness.
On the other side of the ball, the Rebels defense has made significant strides — especially against the run — under new coordinator Pete Golding. However, it's still not an elite unit by any stretch. I don't envision Ole Miss getting very many stops against a very explosive LSU offense that has looked the part in 2023.
Ultimately, I'm buying Ole Miss at home after its loss last week against Alabama in which the Tide were playing at home for their season with a top-five defense against a shorthanded Ole Miss offense.
Plus, I still believe the market overvalues LSU.
Since I make the Rebels a minuscule favorite, I'll happily take the points (similar to Clemson vs. Florida State last weekend even though that didn't work out despite a 65% post-game win expectancy) in a matchup that could come down to whichever offense has the ball last.
Hotty Toddy!
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Ole Miss has been the most profitable underdog by a wide margin against top-15 league opponents, boasting an ATS mark of 28-14 (66.7%). That includes a 15-8 ATS (65.2%) record in Oxford.
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Southern Miss +5.5 vs. Texas State
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Texas State is significantly improved under new head coach GJ Kinne, who is trying to replicate the success we saw Western Kentucky have with Bailey Zappe in a stunning one-season turnaround with a brand-new offense.
Meanwhile, Southern Miss has looked horrendous to start the season, as the offense continues to struggle and the defense appears to have taken a monumental step back after losing a number of key starters.
The Golden Eagles were super reliant on generating pressure on defense in recent years, but they just haven't found a way to replace the void left by the departed Santrell Latham, Dominic Quewon and Daylen Gill — their three top pass-rushers from a season ago.
Additionally, they sorely miss up-and-coming star defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong, whom Billy Napier plucked away from Hattiesburg for the same job in Gainesville.
That said, this is still a market where I'm always looking for buy-low/sell-high spots on a weekly basis, and this fits the bill. Texas State did upset Baylor to start the year, but that win looks a lot less impressive now.
Plus, the Bears didn't really know what to expect from the Bobcat offense — similar to what we saw with TCU against Colorado in Week 1.
Since then, Texas State has beaten two doormats in Jackson State and Nevada (which actually led 17-0 at the half) while losing, 17-10, at UTSA in a game where the offense could never get going against a defense that has allowed 37 and 45 to Army and Tennessee, respectively, over the past two weeks.
Simply put, this looks like too much of a market correction based on how these teams have started through four games.
After dropping three straight, including an upset loss at lowly Arkansas State to kick off Sun Belt play, I expect an inspired effort from Southern Miss, which at least finally got running back Frank Gore Jr. going last week.
Hopefully, the Nasty Boys defense shows back up and can generate pressure against a quarterback in TJ Finley who completely crumbles when under fire (bottom-15 against pressure this season, per PFF) without allowing too many explosive plays, which is my primary concern in this matchup.
The Bobcats offense ranks in the top 10 nationally in that category, while the aggressive Golden Eagles defense ranks second-to-last.
To the Top!
Notable Nugget
Home dogs following a straight-up road loss as a touchdown-plus favorite have hit at a 61% ATS clip over the past 20 seasons. Only Southern Miss fits that criteria this weekend.
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Troy +1.5 at Georgia State
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
On the surface, Georgia State might look cheap as a 4-0 team at home in a league game against a 2-2 opponent. However, if you look a bit under the hood, Troy has looked a bit more impressive than its basic results.
The Trojans understandably lost on the road at Kansas State, with their other loss coming by two points to undefeated James Madison. Their two victories came over Stephen F. Austin in blowout fashion and Western Kentucky last week.
They beat the Hilltoppers by just three but absolutely dominated with almost 250 more total yards. Troy has certainly been a bit unlucky in a few areas that suggest some looming positive regression.
Meanwhile, the Panthers remain unblemished but have done so against one of the easiest schedules in the country to date with wins over Charlotte, Rhode Island, UConn and Coastal Carolina. Those four teams have a combined one FBS win — and it came against a former FCS team in its first year at the FBS level in Jacksonville State.
I have their strength of schedule ranked outside the top 150, while Troy is right around the national average.
From a matchup perspective, these two teams take different offensive approaches.
Georgia State wants to lean on its explosive rushing attack, led by dual-threat quarterback Darren Grainger and running back Marcus Carroll. That style could prove problematic against a Troy defense that has excelled against the run in 2023, ranking in the top 30 nationally in Stuff Rate and Rush Success Rate.
The Trojans have shown some vulnerabilities in the secondary, but that's not as concerning against this particular opponent.
While the Panthers rely on their ground game to churn out yards and set up deep shots, the Trojans have a much higher passing frequency, utilizing the quick-passing attack of quarterback Gunnar Watson. That bodes well against an extremely vulnerable Georgia State pass defense that lost its top two defensive backs from last season.
Against the only two competent passing attacks they've faced, the Panthers allowed Coastal Carolina and Rhode Island — we're not talking about the Miami Dolphins here — to throw for over 700 combined yards.
This looks like an ideal sell-high spot for Georgia State after a pretty fraudulent 4-0 record against a bunch of Cupcake States.
I also don't mind buying a Troy team that has performed better than its final scores indicate on the road against a team that doesn't have much of a home-field advantage.
Lastly, from a pure numbers perspective, I make the Trojans a three-point favorite, so I certainly show value in the number and fancy the matchup on both sides of the ball to boot.
One Troy!
Notable Nugget
Per Action Labs, Sun Belt home teams have the lowest ROI of any conference since 2005. Over that span, they have gone just 295-386-8 (43.3%) for an ROI of -15.8%.
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Iowa State +20 at Oklahoma
7 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
This is a prime spot to buy an Iowa State team that understandably struggled early in the season after dealing with off-the-field gambling-related issues leading up to the season, which ultimately forced the Cyclones to make a quarterback change.
They even had to deal with a food poisoning breakout that affected new starting quarterback Rocco Becht and leading receiver Jaylin Noel the night before a road loss at Ohio in a game Iowa State actually should have won, finishing with an 83% post-game win expectancy.
Speaking of the offense, after some inevitable early growing pains, it seemed to figure some things out last week in a 34-point outburst in a win over Oklahoma State to kick off Big 12 play.
With the running game not really functioning in an efficient manner, the Cyclones leaned more on the passing attack and seemed to find a spark that could carry into this week. Becht certainly responded, finishing 27-of-38 for 348 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions, which earned him National Freshman of the Week honors.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma comes into this game sporting a 4-0 SU and ATS record after a road win at Cincinnati.
While certainly improved, I'm still not sold on the Sooners being back to their elite ways just yet.
They drilled two doormats in Tulsa (with a backup quarterback) and Arkansas State as expected but actually struggled a bit more than the final scores may indicate against Cincinnati (without its best defensive player) and SMU.
Both the Mustangs and Bearcats continuously shot themselves in the foot on offense. In those two double-digit victories, Oklahoma had a combined net yards advantage of just +47.
There are definitely still problems along the offensive line and in the secondary that the new-look Iowa State offense could potentially exploit to find pay dirt a few times. That's all it will likely take to cover this big number in a matchup that was priced around a coin-flip last year in Ames.
While its opponents have struggled to finish off drives, Oklahoma ranks in the top five nationally in Points Per Opportunity, which might not persist throughout the rest of the season based on what I've seen.
Ultimately, I think this number is too high for an Iowa State team that has thrived as a bigger underdog under head coach Matt Campbell by uglying these games up and leaning on its always-reliable defense.
It also doesn't hurt that Oklahoma has its biggest game of the year next week against Texas with major revenge on its mind after a 49-0 drubbing last season. As a result, the Sooners could come out a bit flat and could take their foot off the gas a bit earlier than usual if they build a comfortable lead in the second half.
For what it's worth, over the past 25 years, Texas and Oklahoma have gone a combined 17-32-1 ATS (34.7%) the week before the Red River Rivalry.
The Sooners are also just 4-13 ATS as a home favorite the week before facing the Longhorns since 1980, and they've lost outright as favorites in each of the past two seasons in this spot on the schedule.
The last time Oklahoma was a home favorite the week before Texas actually came against Iowa State in a game the Sooners only won by seven as 31-point chalk.
Go Clones!
Notable Nugget
Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell is 12-3 ATS (80%) as a double-digit underdog, covering by an average margin of over eight points per game. That includes a perfect 6-0 ATS record as an underdog of more than 17 points.
Also, 4-0 ATS teams (like Oklahoma) favored by 17 or more points have gone just 14-22-1 (38.5%) ATS since 2005, failing to cover by an average margin of 4.5 points.
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SMU -23 vs. Charlotte
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
I hate to do this, but I'm fading Club Lit here and laying the points with SMU in a classic bounce-back spot at home against an inferior opponent.
I actually have SMU power-rated similar to Florida, which just laid 28 at home against Charlotte in a super flat spot with some key injuries and suspensions.
I think the Mustangs still have some value in the market after two high-profile road losses to TCU and Oklahoma, but I actually came away very impressed after they played the Sooners. They actually outgained Oklahoma in a game that was 14-11 midway through the fourth quarter.
The SMU defense is much better than I think anybody had anticipated, as the transfer portal additions are really working out on that side of the ball.
Conversely, the offense has not lived up to the lofty preseason expectations set for former five-star quarterback Preston Stone.
The offense just hasn't found its rhythm yet, but that should change on Saturday against a Charlotte secondary that can be attacked relentlessly.
After the loss at TCU, I'm sure this offense desperately wants to put up a big number against a bad defense — just as it did in a nice 69-0 win over Prairie View A&M after its loss to Oklahoma.
Meanwhile, this is a tough spot for Charlotte, playing its second straight road game after getting beat up a bit by an SEC opponent in Gainesville.
It's also hard to imagine the 49ers offense, which ranks dead last in third-down conversions and is still juggling quarterbacks, sustaining many drives against a vastly improved SMU defense.
Pony Up!
Notable Nugget
Since 2011, SMU has gone 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of at least two touchdowns against nonconference opponents, covering by over a touchdown per game. Only Duke (11-1-1 ATS) has turned a bigger profit in that role over that span.
