No college football Saturday is complete without some Pac-12 After Dark. With this being the last year with the Pac-12 as we know it, we're going to enjoy it while we can.
Our college football staff came through with two best bets for Saturday's Pac-12 After Dark action, including picks for USC vs. Arizona and Cal vs. Oregon State.
Let's make the most of these two late-night college football matchups and close out the night on a high note.
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Late-Night College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday's late-night games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 10 p.m. | |
  | 10:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Oregon State vs. Cal
By Stuckey
I think this is a good spot to fade the Beavers in a potentially sleepy spot at Cal after back-to-back games against ranked foes with UCLA on deck.
Yes, the Beavers took care of business against the Utes, but they've been dominant at home in recent seasons. Plus, I think that result said more about the anemic Utah offense without Cam Rising and a host of other key injuries.
Cal has also thrived as a larger underdog under Justin Wilcox, whose squads know how to ugly up a game with the best of 'em. The Bears will limit explosive plays and just turn games like this into a complete grinder.
Plus, from a matchup perspective, the Cal defense has thrived against the run, ranking in the top 10 nationally in EPA per Rush. That's critical against Oregon State since the ground game serves as the foundation of everything it wants to do offensively, especially since DJU hasn't impressed me when forced to drop back and throw.
Meanwhile, Cal also could see quarterback Ben Finley return from injury. He would provide a boost to the downfield passing game, which is how teams must attack a Beavers team that lost a number of key pieces on the back end from last year's depth chart.
Additionally, Cal has been very unlucky when it comes to allowing teams to finish drives with points, ranking in the bottom 10 nationally in Points Per Opportunity. Conversely, Oregon State ranks in the top 10 in that category.
Based on the personnel, I'd expect a correction on both fronts, which could lead to some positive scoring regression for the Bears in this particular matchup.
Keep in mind Cal should've had an easy cover against Washington if not for allowing a pair of nonoffensive touchdowns before the Huskies gained a yard. It also should've beaten Auburn if not for a miraculous late third-and-17 conversion by the Tigers, who averaged only 3.6 yards per carry in that contest.
These Bears are much feistier than last season's squad, which still found a way to lose by only one possession against Notre Dame, Washington, USC and UCLA.
I think another close loss is in the cards here for a team I still think has a bit of value — especially in the underdog role — against an Oregon State team that could be a bit disinterested out of the gates.
I'm waiting on a +10 to potentially pop but will still bet it if it doesn't move to +8.5.
For what it's worth, Justin Wilcox is 21-7 ATS (75%) as an underdog of more than four points, including 10-1 against the number at home.
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Arizona vs. USC
Death. Taxes. A USC defense weaker than a wet paper bag.
As mighty as the Trojans’ offense is, undefeated USC, once again, rests its College Football Playoff hopes on the back of its deficient defense that’s shown no signs of improvement from 2022.
Arizona, meanwhile, is content to just be the best of the worst in the Pac-12, but it has an offense and quarterback capable of attacking the Trojans right where they’re the weakest.
Assuming Jayden de Laura returns from injury, he’s the perfect quarterback to face a porous USC secondary. He plays what can best be described as YOLO ball and isn’t afraid to sling it, although that did help him lead the conference in interceptions last year.
Fortunately for the Arizona quarterback, USC has forced just three interceptions this year and has allowed over 340 passing yards in four of five games.
Additionally, the Trojans’ biggest problem has been stopping explosive pass plays. USC has allowed 29 plays of 20-plus yards this season, which is tied for 118th worst in the FBS. Last season, it finished 121st in that category.
De Laura lives and dies with the home-run ball. Last season, he finished third in the country with 65 passes of at least 20 yards in length. If he’s healthy, he’ll be pushing the ball downfield all game long, looking to make this a shootout.
Even if de Laura doesn’t play, Noah Fifita showed last week against Washington that he isn’t necessarily a dropoff from the Wildcats’ incumbent starter. He has a much higher floor with fewer turnovers than de Laura and helped Arizona score 24 points on a Washington defense that’s a little better than USC.
This will be another easy win for the Trojans, but Arizona is more than capable of scoring 25 points.
Pick: Arizona Team Total Over 24.5 (Play to 26.5)
